7 trends and market insights into global online training and the impact of AI

As we calm down from the initial excitement that AI bought we are now coming to terms with the impact of it in the online learning space. G2 reviewed over 2982 LMS, online platforms and software that supports them for their Best Education Software Awards in 2024. That seems to be like a lot of choice. The proliferation of Learning Management Systems (LMS), education software and online learning platforms has exploded in the last 5 years. It is mind-blowing for us oldies, who have been watching the market grow over the last 25 years. The first 15 years seemed fast at the time, and only the big players had the capital to build, but the last 5-10 years felt like the market had been on steroids.

So many articles have been written about the growth in global online training markets, the need for scalability, cost-effectiveness, customisations, global products, personalisation, integration with other systems, regulatory compliance and AI. AI's impact, capability and limitations are yet to be realised, and it is hard to future-proof a career when so much is unknown and growing rapidly.

The market is dividing into online training products to suit specific markets. Even the terminology is changing. Learning Management Systems (LMS) are still largely used by schools, large training organisations, large corporations and Higher Ed for accredited and non-accredited training. These traditional markets were early adopters and grew the market rapidly. These markets require a mature backend that manages trainers, assessments, enrolments, automation, plugins, RPL, compliance, and much more. Compliance and scalability is a key driver in these markets.

Online learning platforms are different to traditional LMS. They are designed for businesses and individual users. These platforms may include integrated systems for marketing, websites and a marketplace to sell courses or allow organisations to tailor their HR requirements and training in more personalised ways. In some cases, learning is designed on an intuitive platform requiring little knowledge of instructional design, incorporating some basic AI to assist in designing learning content and is often free or low-cost for the learner. Some organisations are using these short courses as a marketing tool to provide potential clients with a taste of what the business offers. In other cases, they are used for internal training. These platforms target small and medium-sized businesses or sole traders. This category can include the mum and dad gurus sharing a short course with the world. Platforms like Kajabi and Coassemble , provide small investors with the opportunity to play in a big space. With the opportunity to sell courses on a marketplace, contenders like OpenLearning play between the accredited and non-accredited space with ease. The tensions we see in this market are low completion rates (Matthew Mason ) between 5%-15%, and whilst learners appreciate the flexibility, it doesn't always equate to learning success.

Another emerging market is seen in the rise of specialised LMS that bring industry-aligned software with industry-specific knowledge to meet training needs. These platforms are seen in health, mining, manufacturing, government, defence, and engineering, to name a few. AI and programmers can use the basic requirements of online systems and apply industry-specific practices to seamlessly integrate the culture, behaviours, and practices of the industry. These platforms are workplace-relevant and provide just-in-time learning. The rapid increase in automation is also driving these companies to target the training to their needs.

So here are some observations and tensions within this market and how they impact training.

1. AI to assist in rapid development of customised LMS - Industry-specific, organisational customised training platforms could be developed using AI and Open-source LMS technology to develop customised platforms to meet industry needs within a shorter period of time. This development could occur in months rather than years. Human engagement would be required to provide custom logic and testing.
2. Plug it in vs native - More and more organisations are using software they prefer to plug into their LMS. These API integrations come at a cost, and multiple subscriptions impact the affordability. What is emerging in platforms is the integration of some of these elements, especially design elements, so training can be developed on one platform and updates can occur in real time without removing and uploading new files. When design tools are used natively in a platform, it reduces the development costs. These rapid development tools built into the LMS allow organisations to get training to market quickly. The rise of the micro-credential market has also helped drive these changes, as workers want up-to-date, industry-driven courses and customised training options to meet their career needs.
3. Global development opportunities - Rapid development of new training technologies is not just coming from wealthier countries. India and Africa have well-trained and innovative tech experts who think outside the box and rapidly develop systems with great intention. The development costs are much lower in these countries compared to countries where LMS systems dominate markets.
4. Standardisation of expected applications, behaviours and processes in LMS - Customers have driven what they expect in online training. It is staggering to think that 189 million people have participated in an online course (Preply, 2023 , ELearning Global Strategic Business Report ), peaking in 2020. Almost all LMS contain basic standard behaviours and applications. This standardisation allows AI to build upon an existing base and enables developers to work with AI on customisations.
5. Workplace skills aligned with accredited and non-accredited training - An accredited or non-accredited course completion doesn't always equate to a job skill. Workers need technology that can help them articulate their skills and worth in a rapidly changing market. Matching job skills to prior learning is greatly needed in global and mobile workforces. They need to easily take their prior learning and skills to a new job within their related industry. Organisations like Skills Lab are trying to meet the training demands of a rapidly changing market so that workers' career pathways are more closely aligned with what the industry needs.
6. Authentic learning and limitations - One of the tensions with AI is the source's authenticity, copyright, and ethical sourcing in the development of content. Governments and organisations are grappling to come to terms with this. It's an IP Wild West out there at the moment. There is a real desire for people to learn from real people, not AI-developed content. In the future, content that is authentically human may attract a higher price. At the moment, AI is struggling with understanding complexities within Industry cultures. John Lennox , the amazing maths professor and scholar, explores this notion and the impact of this in AI's evolution. Understanding is one of the limitations of AI at the moment.
7. Creative logisticians - We are seeing an emerging market of experts who can provide the logic AI needs to perform its function. While AI can learn and improve, it requires some human input to ensure the logic for development meets the user's desires. These experts may be industry-specific, or they could be generalists who work with subject matter experts.

While it is exciting to be on the cusp of new technological breakthroughs, this is still very much an emerging field. It takes time, discussion and money to analyse and understand the long-term impact. The use of Immersive Platforms and hardware like the Oculus Rift (which has now been discontinued) has not been realised because of the cost and the time it takes to develop the software. It was touted as a game changer, but few could afford the devices on a large scale; some people felt ill whilst using them, and the cost to develop the software was extremely expensive. Time will tell how this technology will continue to evolve. Integration with AI and online learning platforms needs to be guided through thoughtful processes and intention, and I am looking forward to following its development. From a personal perspective, the opportunities are really fun to think about!