The 7 Principles of Surveillance - #4 ANTICIPATION

Anticipation is possibly the most critical principle in determining the effectiveness and smooth running of a surveillance follow as it has the ability to transfer the control of a surveillance follow from the subject to the surveillance team. A subject (generally) knows what their route and intentions are, the difficulty for a surveillance team is how to ensure that the subject does not control them. The best way to avoid being controlled by the subject is to anticipate the subject’s movements and be in a position to cover them before they occur. In a simple foot follow scenario this requires the surveillance team to look ahead of the subject and see what options are available to them and then ensure they use their appreciation of cover, distance and timing to be in the correct place to cover those options should the subject utilise them. In a vehicle follow the team should use their map-reading skills to anticipate the subject’s likely movements and co-ordinate as a team accordingly. Being pro-active rather than reactive is what anticipation in surveillance is all about.

In a broader sense, anticipation might involve an operator getting ahead to a known location such as a home address or work address which could be intelligence-led but also could just be an operator using their initiative and being proactive based on a dress description or pattern of life.

The objective of anticipation is always to improve the safety and security of the surveillance follow and to improve the intelligence, or evidential, dividend.