6th day of the War of the russian against Ukraine
Oleg Gramotenko
Profitable investment in the Energy Sector, Solar Energy Development & BESS. Capital raising, Investment Advisor.
6th day of the War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine
01 March Tuesday
???Putin managed to surpass Hitler
Switzerland abandoned neutrality for the first time since 1815, imposing harsh sanctions against the Russian Federation, including closing the skies to Russian airlines, providing medical equipment and medicines to Ukraine and neighboring countries, banning several Russians from entering, imposing personal sanctions against Putin and Lavrov, and adopting several other measures.
To bring the Swiss to this - you had to try very hard. Even Hitler failed.
Many people ask themselves what Putin wants and why does he have so much hatred for people?
Putin acts according to?the military doctrine of Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
This doctrine was introduced in February 2013 and entered into force during the hybrid war against Ukraine launched by the Russian Federation in the same 2013. Gerasimov himself headed the General Staff in November 2012. Therefore, by right, he can be considered the main ideologist of the Russian war against Ukraine and should sit in The Hague next to Putin and Lukashenko.
Now practically all points of this military doctrine against Ukraine are involved; the final goal is "Change of the country's political leadership opposing Russia."
The Gerasimov doctrine is very similar to the Chinese military philosophy of "unlimited war,” published back in 1999.
At the same time, China is acting on Hong Kong and Taiwan more in non-military ways. The Chinese have the patience not to attack the recalcitrant, but only to threaten them from the outside and democratically change the power to the pro-Chinese from within. The Russians tried through Medvedchuk, and later other Ukrainian politicians like the Opposition Platform for Life, to change the course of political history in Ukraine. But they stole the money received from Moscow and simply turned out to be mentally incapable of building a “fifth column” in Ukraine.
Therefore, in 2014 and 2022, Putin switched to direct military aggression - first by seizing Crimea and unleashing a war in the Donbas, and now attacking Ukraine in several directions.
Putin continues to live in his fantasies.
He told French President Macron that "a settlement with Ukraine is possible only if Russia's legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account, including:
? recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea;
? demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state;
? ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine.”
The Russian Federation was preparing to accept the surrender of Ukraine at yesterday's negotiations but received an ultimatum in return - to unconditionally withdraw all troops from the territory of Ukraine.
Furious at this response, Putin ordered Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol. Part of these attacks is rocket bombings of civilian infrastructure and residential buildings.
The number of women, children, and other civilians killed in Ukraine grow every day.
Even more inhuman is that Putin seeks to encircle these Ukrainian cities to make life in them unbearable for the civilian population. At the same time, he throws more and more "meat" of his soldiers into battle.
???Putin's original goal - to change power in KievKyiv to a puppet regime failed.?Heroic Berdyansk and many other Ukrainian settlements stop turning Russian tanks with their bare hands.
These people can no longer be brought to their knees by Putin.
Western weapons are actively coming to Ukraine.
Hundreds of millions of financial assistance are coming in, not only from states but also from ordinary people.
Soon the foreign legion will join the battle. They were given a "license to kill" Russian soldiers. I have never seen such joyful bloodlust in the eyes.?Russian mothers - forbid your sons to go to Ukraine to die for Putin and his lackeys. This is not your war.
?????PRIDE. RESPECT. GLORY TO UKRAINE
Ukraine has applied for EU membership and will probably approve it. The Ukrainian people showed their dignity in repelling the aggressor, before whom the hamstrings of more than one generation of politicians were shaking. The devil turned out to be not so terrible as he is painted.
The Ukrainians defeated Hitler in their time, and they will also beat Putin.
In a panic, Putin began to threaten with nuclear weapons -Putin began to threaten with nuclear weapons in a panic, but this is no longer a threat to Ukraine but the whole world. And Putin will not be forgiven for this. Of course, no one will attack the Russian Federation. But strangling sanctions will become even more active. And also immensely support Ukraine.?
Moreover, this is a lesson not only for Putin but also for China. If Ukraine is handed over to Putin, then China's takeover of Taiwan will be next. And these are semiconductors for the entire planet.
By the way,?Chinese banks also imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation, stopping servicing transactions from purchasing commodities in Russia. China will gladly capitalize on Russia's troubles.
By unleashing aggression against Ukraine, Putin betrayed his people, his country. He hides behind false slogans and propaganda, bribing Western politicians and his security officials, and acts solely for personal gain and ambition. The wealthiest country has been reduced to China's raw material appendage.
What has Russia created from bombs and missiles during the 22 years of Putin's rule?
The Putin regime has created hatred for everything Russian, the humiliation of its citizens, the disgrace of its army.
What were the trillions of dollars earned by Russia during the 22 years of Putin's rule spent?
The Putin regime spent it on private villas and homes worldwide, on personal security, on peruniqueys, on bribing voters to continue to hold on to power at any cost.
Putin is a traitor to Russia and must go.
???CHRONICLE OF THE DIVING ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Russia is rapidly heading towards bankruptcy.
The probability of Russia's default exceeded 56%. It only got worse in 1998.
Foreign investors hold Russian bonds worth $20 billion and 3 trillion rubles.
The numbers are not fantastic, but given the format of Western sanctions against the Russian Federation, this will require the intervention of the Fed, the ECB, and other world's leading central banks.
The market is still betting on a 0.25% increase in the Fed's discount rate on March 16. Still, instead, the Fed may announce new measures to stimulate the global economy to stop the chain reaction after the inevitable default of the Russian Federation.
This is how Putin brought the wealthiest country to bankruptcy.
Putin and his entourage, as well as support for Putinism.
Now the Russian Federation has only two ways
1????become North Korea led by the wise?Poo Vla Hu
or
2???_?Putin will leave, and the Russian Federation will gradually begin to become a normal country
The CBR urgently raised the discount rate to 20%. Russian banks immediately raised their deposit rates to an average of 18%.
But inflation will jump to 60% or even higher, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will have to act even more challenging.
And this will help stop economic growth. And if Pu acts Vla Hu, he will return the banking system of the Russian Federation to Soviet times.
The result of this will be a transition to a card mode in consumption, a ban on any currency, a ban on movement within the Russian Federation without special permission from the authorities, and the closure of any market relations unless underground prostitution and drugs will remain under the supervision of the FSB.
Russian Federation is moving to a dual exchange rate formation, like Cuba and Venezuela, which are friendly to the Putin regime - a low official rate and 2-3 times higher than the black market rate. So the real?exchange rate of the ruble will quickly reach 200 rubles/dollar,?where it can slow down. Although, now no one knows where the bottom of the Russian ruble will be.
By the way, the fraternal Putin regime, the Belarusian people will also have to drink from this cup of the ruble’s devaluation in full.
The Central Bank of Belarus on March 1 raised the discount rate from 9.25% to 12%. Quite modest. This means that there are still many rate hikes ahead.
See how quickly the situation unfolded.?Just a week ago, rich Russia was mocking Ukrainians, and now Ukraine is joining the EU, and the Russian economy is flying into the abyss.
The stoppage of sea traffic flows to/from the Russian Federation has begun - without refueling, Russian ships will become dead weight.
Previously, the Russian Federation worked as a global petrol and gas station - in exchange for its raw materials, it bought various imported goods. But now who and how will deliver these goods. One hope is for the Chinese. So now the Russians will eat everything Chinese, dress in everything Chinese, and drive everything Chinese. To?learn Chinese, Russians.?A vassal economy is a vassal economy to know the language of its overlord.
There won't be any hunger. The Russian Federation is fully provided with its food.
Macaroni and potatoes will be on every table. For breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
领英推荐
Instead of coffee, a return to chicory - study the experience of the USSR what kind of plant this is.
Egypt, Turkey, and Thailand will remain in memories and photographs. Have time to download them from Instagram. Otherwise, the Russian authorities will close the Internet.
Foreign films will become banned. They can be watched only in licensed cinemas and only after the obligatory viewing of a patriotic video about the invincible Russian army or news from a friendly but infinitely distant Cuba.
I will not describe all the delights of Soviet life. 60-year-olds still remember her, ask them.
As for the financial market, the Central Bank of Russia has decided not to open a stock market section, a derivatives market section, or an SFI market section on the Moscow Exchange either yesterday or today. I just hung up the bolt.
Yesterday was the "blackest" Monday of the Russian stock market in its history. Today may be the "blackest" Tuesday. And tomorrow is the "blackest" Wednesday. Etc.
Moreover, there is such a sign - the more often Putin gathers various departments at his table to solve important significant state problems, the more chaos and confusion arises. By the way, you probably already noticed a prerequisite - that no one comes close to the leader.
Millions of Russians lost almost everything they invested in their country's stocks.?Putin cost you dearly, Russians. For example, in London, shares of Sberbank, the flagship of the Russian stock market, collapsed to $1, although on February 15, they were worth $15.
That's how the "zero-kid" tries.
Yesterday, I surveyed the telegram channel on the meeting topic between the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan?Kadyrov, and the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, Siluanov, “What do you think, what did they talk about?”
The official version is the construction of garbage collection complexes financing individual projects in Chechnya.
The unofficial version - came for the money.
Interestingly, at least 9,000 Kremlinbots came running and voted "as needed." Funny.
Do they think it will become true if you distort the informational reality?
Since our channel has already been given such a high honor, we are being monitored by the Russian special services, so I will make the next polls non-anonymous.
We will detect Kremlinbots.
The answer to the poll is quite apparent -?Kadyrov came to the Kremlin for money. I warned about this for a long time that all the loyalty of the "Chechen bayonets" rests on the Russian capital. The Russians feed the "Chechen lads of Kadyrov" out of their own pockets. That's they will take dollars. But there are no dollars. They may be shut up for a while, but not for long. Therefore, we are waiting for interesting, exciting news from Chechnya.
Yesterday, Putin responded to Western sanctions to blow his business and people.?Traditional and expected step. Beat your own so that strangers are afraid.
1. From February 28, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation obliges exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings under all foreign trade agreements (and for all payments credited from January 1 this year ). Of course, at the non-market low official rate.
2. Putin banned Russians and Russian companies from transferring foreign currency to repay loans and crediting foreign currency to their accounts abroad. – This means?a technical default.
3. It is forbidden to lend to foreigners and buy their bonds (existing loans can not be closed).
4. From March 1, 2022, Russians are PROHIBITED from receiving foreign currency to their foreign accounts in banks and financial organizations. Interestingly, now all residents of the Russian Federation?are account holders in Interactive brokers became criminals overnight? - after all, “residents can credit foreign currency to their accounts” when receiving dividends and money from the sale of shares.
5. Russians are also prohibited from transferring currency abroad through payment systems.
6. Russian companies can buy back their shares, but only under certain conditions.
7. Foreigners are prohibited from selling Russian assets.
These restrictions will make, for example, the life of Russian IT specialists unbearable, and they will be dumped from the Russian Federation. Ahead is a mass exodus of advanced specialists. Putin may respond to this by banning people from leaving.
By the way, the shame of the Russian army becomes even more acute from the fact that the website of the President of the Russian Federation is still "lying.” The "greatest" army in the world can't do anything about it.
Results of the VTsIOM survey:
68% of Russians instead support the decision on a special operation against Ukraine
22% against
Do you believe these results? – the support figure is overestimated, as the Russians are afraid. But I think that support for the Putin regime is still relatively high. Propaganda also has a psychological effect - it is difficult to immediately admit that everything you believed in turned out to be a lie.
The Russians still have to go through CATARSIS?(moral cleansing resulting from mental shock or suffering). But only after the fall of the Putin regime.
???INTERNATIONAL NEWS
The United States imposed sanctions against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:
- American legal entities will not be able to work with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation,
- CBRF assets will be frozen,
- Sanctions will also affect the National Welfare Fund and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
This is a powerful economic blow to the Russian Federation. The Russian authorities did not expect this, although they were partly preparing. But liquid foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation will last for several weeks. That is why the Russian Federation immediately imposed the most severe currency restrictions, unprecedented under the Putin regime.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson demanded a complete shutdown of Russia from Swift.
MSCI may exclude Russian stocks from all indices
Forced sales covered these papers to a catastrophic level.
Because of this, EPAM shares collapsed by 45% yesterday. Almost all IT specialists of the company live in Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation.
NATO, for the first time in its history, deploys the Alliance Strategic Response Force in response to Putin's nuclear blackmail
Inflation will be higher than expected in the US and the EU due to Russian aggression.
Goldman Sachs raised its PCE core inflation forecast (which the Fed is primarily looking at) in 2022 to 3.7% from 3.1%.
In Europe, headline inflation will rise to 5% and fall to 2.2% in 2023.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will consider the issue of confiscation of all Russian property in Ukraine.
I hope that we are talking about state property of the Russian Federation since many pro-Ukrainian Russians live in Ukraine, and taking away their apartments would be a wrong step and unfair.
The EU reports that 400,000 refugees from Ukraine have now arrived, expecting millions more.
We hope for an early victory for Ukraine to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
But if the Russian Federation announces mobilization and sends new meat to the war with Ukraine, then there is a risk of prolonging the war. It will take time to chop the "Russian meat" into minced meat.
Ukraine needs to return to a peaceful sky - to remove enemy air superiority. At one time, the USSR also had air superiority at the first stage of the war, but the American stingers radically changed the balance of power, and, as a result, the USSR had to get out. Stingers have already begun to come to the Ukrainian army. Therefore, we are waiting for a turning point here.
Chinese aggression against Taiwan is possible but unlikely.
We are following the US government bond market. If China decides to protect its foreign exchange reserves, it will begin to actively remove these securities, which the Russian Federation did earlier. In 2024, elections will be held in Taiwan, where the pro-Chinese party is likely to win, and therefore there is no reason for China to rush and run into Western sanctions.
China's industrial activity index unexpectedly showed positive (50.2)
But China is still teetering on the brink of an economic crisis.
Expensive oil hits his pocket too.
Bitcoin has risen in the rice above $43 thousand?- this is the crypt that the Russians are buying up to save their savings somehow.
???Dynamics of stock indices in 2022
HUGS'INDEX -13.3%
HUGS'30 (value) -10.7%
HUGS'40 (growth) -15.7%
DIA -6.6%
SPY -8.1%
QQQ -12.8%
HUGS'ON'9 -7.2%
HUGS -7.7%?