647. DISASTER PREPARATION-CRYING WOLF OR DRY RUN? ? 2018 Wayne D. Lewis, Sr.
August 9, 2018
Current Tropic Activity can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/
#HurricaneFlorence; #TSIssac; #HurricaneHelene; #unkCarribean
Just recently, #TSGordon passed along and into the Gulf of Mexico. Weather prognosticators and the media seemed to have sold us a bill of goods maybe a matter for debate. As #TSGordon was seemingly no big thing to be concerned about, there was an unfortunate loss of life of a 2 year-old. To this young, innocent victim and her family, our thoughts and prayers go out to her. Many of us, as we have learned from the media, believed that the weather service and the media, just love to create drama when it comes to hurricanes. Essentially, we believe that the various services all come together for the purpose of just crying wolf, and getting all of us concerned, for nothing.
What Does It Mean When We Say: “Cry Wolf”?
Do you remember that fable of old? It was about a young man who was assigned to watch over sheep in the field. In his effort to show that he was doing his job, he would call out to the community that a wolf was in the area, and that the sheep were in danger. The community would come out with their pitchforks, knives, guns, bazookas, and missiles, ready to attack any threat to their flock. But there was no wolf.
The long and short of the story, was that there was never a wolf despite the fact the young man had called out three or more times, causing the community to respond each time, eventually becoming less and less willing to respond, because there was never a wolf. Each of the three to more times that the young man called “Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!”, the community began to become complacent. They were despondent and started to believe that the young man was not being sincere.
However, as my memory serves me, there was eventually a wolf. Actually, there was not only a wolf, but a pack of wolves. In fact, there were a congregation of alligators, a heard of elephants, a pride of lions, and a lone hawk, who all decided on one night to have a town hall meeting. They were all aware of the young man foolishly sounding off on the wolf’s family. And, they decided that given the complacency of the community, that maybe they should all join in and have their way at the sheep. After all, who would believe the young man? So, as we all know, the wolves, the hawk, the elephants and the lions all decided to attack the sheep, in their sleep.
On the night of the attack, the first to show up, was the wolf, with his pack. The young man saw the wolf, and gradually, through the darkness, came the other wolves. As the young man wiped his eyes to be sure that he wasn’t imagining things, he looked up in the starry skies to notice a hawk flying over the herd of sleeping, unsuspecting sheep. As the young man began to call out to the community for help, there came a thundering sound of elephants from the far side of the plains. And last but not least, the alligators began quickly approaching from another side, completely surround the defenseless sheep.
All the young man could do, was cry out as loud as he could, becoming hoarse, in trying to get the community to respond to his cries for help. No one responded. The sheep were all killed and devoured, and no one had responded until the next day, but it was too late.
Does Disaster Preparation require crying “Wolf!”?
Yes! Absolutely. Right now, as we watch the Saint vs. Buccaneers game in the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, there are 3, possibly 4, potential weather events that may strike the U.S. mainland. At the very least, we have anywhere from 4 to 7 days between when either, if at all, may strike. We are, at this point, aware of these natural disasters, that, depending on wind speed; temperature of the water; forward motion; tornado potential, or, turn to the west or north, plus other meteorological factors, our various media outlets, including the weather channel (www.weather.com), could be preparing us to take evasive, if not protective action to survive either one, if not all of these storms, depending on those factors.
(Note: Buccaneers 48- Saints-40)
“Crying Wolf!” is essential for the various Emergency Management Operations and partners to do, because they don’t know what they don’t know, when it comes to any natural disaster. But for the most part, those who are collaborators in Emergency Management, know that too many lives are at stake, to get it wrong. And so, we as communities, get the calls to do things such as the following (in no set order):
· Board up windows;
· Secure loose items in our yards;
· Gas up our vehicles;
· Check to make sure that our generators are operating properly;
· Make sure to check on the elderly;
· Make sure that medications are up to date;
· Listen to authorities when they give us instructions to evacuate;
· Get batteries and flashlights;
· Know where you are going to go in the event of an evacuation;
· Know where important papers are so that they can be picked up in the event of evacuation;
· Keep a small amount of cash on hand in case power goes out;
· Call 911 if you have emergency;
· Know where you can bring your pets if staying in a hotel;
The above list is a snapshot of what many of us have heard over the years. And for many of us, we may have never had to follow through on what Emergency Management Operators have had to call for us to do. If so, congratulations. But from a historical standpoint, there have been lives lost due to natural disasters, that for far too many, there was never a cry of “Wolf!” that they believed was worthy of giving attention to. Why? Because there have been too many cries of “Wolf!”, and nothing happened.
“We’re Not Leaving!”
Many of our family and friends have endured too many disasters, that even with the impending danger, the most they did was got their ice; ice chest; barbeque grill; some food; candles; flashlights and their shooting irons. They have never looked back, because they did not want to leave their homes or possessions, for fear of looting. Duly noted!
The down side of these decisions to not evacuate, is that Mother Nature does not respect those who decide not to listen to the authorities. What has been an all too common life-threatening set of events, are those who thought they could ride out a major disaster, is that they eventually become far more danger to others than they need to be. For example, a fallen tree, or a swollen river, can quickly change the plans of the most avid resister to instructions to evacuate. What eventually happens, are calls to law enforcement or the National Guard to come and rescue. Such situations, when our family, neighbors and friends choose not to evacuate, or take protective steps to guard against danger, puts our law enforcement and national guard at risk as well, needlessly.
Is There a Difference Between “Crying Wolf” and Disaster Preparation Drill?
No! There is no difference between “crying wolf” and a disaster preparation, theoretically. In the fable the idea of crying wolf, was to fool people into believing something to prove that the young man was doing his job. If people responded to his false cries, fine for him, if they did not, it was no big deal to the false cries. The difference however is, that if no one responds to a disaster, drill or real, it is a big deal! If families and communities don’t take seriously why the need for response, then, crying wolf and disaster preparation are essentially the same, because the important component of believing in the calls and their intent, becomes irrelevant. And by becoming irrelevant, people have the potential to either get hurt, die, or lose their valuables and properties. And that is a big deal!
As we should all know, A Disaster Preparation Drill, is to see if we have done everything we were supposed to in the event of an actual emergency. For Emergency Managers there are often opportunities to conduct drills when it comes to disaster preparedness. A threat of danger does not have to be impending for this drill to occur. Unfortunately, real drills are on a much smaller scale. Many who would be affected by the intent of the drill, aren’t always involved, or aware of the need to be involved. We can only imagine, that our various public agencies and non-profits participate to some degree, but as for the general public, not necessarily the case.
When it comes to formal drills below are some of the agencies and organizations that may conduct them.
For example (not an exhaustive list):
· Sewerage and Water Board;
· Police and Fire;
· The National Guard;
· Emergency Management Operations;
· Hospitals;
· State and Local agencies;
· American Red Cross;
· Schools and Hospitals;
· Major Corporations;
This list is not an exhaustive, but it is an example of the many agencies that come together to ensure that many of our communities are as safe as possible when it comes to protecting life and property, with an emphasis on life.
How unfortunate, that there are those who believe that all the preparations put in place safe life and property, could not possibly apply to them, and that they, as citizens, will not participate in an authorized and coordinated activity, designed to save their lives. Why would they not participate? Because too often, as it appeared, cities have cried “Wolf!” Too often, the National Weather Service has cried “Wolf!” Too often, the storms weren't as powerful as forecasted; too often, businesses have closed down and have lost money; too often schools have closed down and kids were out of school, for nothing.
Continuing the Cry of “Wolf”?
The purpose of this message is not to discourage the seemingly false calls for disaster preparation. On the contrary! As a community, we should embrace those calls by our leaders whenever there is a potential for danger to our communities. We should have our own plan of action as to what to do; who to call; where to go, and and/or when to do what, even if as a disaster approaches, but fizzles out. History is filled with another cry, that has also resulted in damage and loss of life: “IT TURNED!”
It is important to understand that hurricanes, even with the most sophisticated of equipment, cannot be relied upon to go in a projected direction. That is why we see a cone of uncertainty on forecast maps. That is why we see spaghetti models from different meteorological groups, because they can’t be too sure. And we ourselves, can’t be too careful, by letting our guards down when it comes to the uncertainty of natural disasters.
The importance to us, as individuals, as families, as homeowners, as renters, as small businesses, as pet owners, and, as communities, is not to take for granted the opportunities to prepare for disaster. Whether a thunder storm, a tropical storm, a Category 1, a tornado, an earthquake, or a fire event, to name a few disasters, we should know that every disaster has one thing in common: the potential for loss of life, and/or property damage. By putting together a plan of action, and always being ready to put it into play as needed, it will force us to see where our own plans of action may need some improvement. We should only be too happy that for the rest of our lives, that if we are lucky, it will always be a cry of “wolf”. Additionally, we should feel confident, that if, God-forbid, that a true natural disaster occurs, we should know that we will have done our utmost part, to carry out our own disaster plans to keep our families safe, and our properties secured.
For More Information on Disaster Preparedness:
· If an emergency: call 911
· Ready https://www.ready.gov/
· National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
· The Weather Channel https://weather.com/
· Federal Emergency Management Agency- https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home
· Disaster Assistance- https://www.disasterassistance.gov/
· Hurricane Preparedness- https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness
Disclaimer: No information should be considered as legal advice. Consult with your local authorities for evacuation and safety preparedness. Information believed to be from reliable sources but not guaranteed.
647. #KATRINATAUGHTUS