6 Minute War in the Middle East - Or - Education, Prosperity and Peace

“Jacob called for his sons and said, "Gather together so I can tell you what will happen to you in the future.” Gen 49:1 NET Bible 

This post is to consider various future scenarios - possible end games - and how we as a society can achieve peace through education and prosperity. Instead of how the Romans did it - "They make a desert and call it peace" Tacitus

Author's note: the quotes at the beginning of this post are here to highlight the dangers our world faces if humanity does not change its ways. Some of the quotes really concern me and they are posted in the hopes that we find another way. I am in agreement with the quote from George Washington “My first wish is to see this plague of mankind, war, banished from the earth."

“Anyway, Iranians can’t use one [a nuclear weapon] if they finally make one. The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran, and we have thousands." Colin Powell

"It is hard to understand those— like Chairman Mao— who can contemplate nuclear war with anything approaching equanimity.

“Let us speculate,” he said to the Communist world’s leaders in 1957. If war broke out, how many people would die? There are 2.7 billion people in the entire world… If the worst comes to the worst, perhaps one-half would die. But there would still be one-half left; imperialism would be razed to the ground and the whole world would become socialist. After a number of years, the world’s population would once again reach 2.7 billion and certainly become even bigger.” - Mao

Fortunately for us all, the men who actually made the decisions in the Soviet Union and United States in the 1950s realized that the only way to handle nuclear weapons was through Mutual Assured Destruction, a no-middle-ground doctrine where one false move would mean annihilation all around. … For thirty years, brinksmanship and blunders produced an agonizing sequence of glimpses of the outer darkness, but the worst never came to the worst. Since 1986 the number of warheads in the world has fallen by two-thirds, with further big reductions agreed upon in 2010. The thousands of weapons that the Americans and Russians still have could kill everyone on earth with megatons to spare, but Nightfall now seems far less likely than it did during the forty years of Mutual Assured Destruction. Biology, sociology, and geography continue to weave their webs; history goes on.” Ian Morris - Why the West Rules--for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future 

"And by the way, with Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats and they make gestures that our people -- that they shouldn't be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water," Donald Trump

“The twenty-first century is going to be a race. In one lane is some sort of Singularity; in the other, Nightfall. One will win and one will lose. There will be no silver medal. Either we will soon (perhaps before 2050) begin a transformation even more profound than the industrial revolution, which may make most of our current problems irrelevant, or we will stagger into a collapse like no other.” Dr. Ian Morris

"These are the stakes. To make a world in which all of God's children can live, or to go into the dark. We must either love each other, or we must die." - Lyndon B. Johnson

"To disagree, one doesn't have to be disagreeable." - Barry Goldwater 

“Which is better--to have laws and agree, or to hunt and kill?” ― William Golding, Lord of the Flies

“I think women are foolish to pretend they are equal to men, they are far superior and always have been.” ― William Golding, Lord of the Flies

"Neither party expected for the war the magnitude or the duration which it has already attained. .... Each looked for an easier triumph, and a result less fundamental and astounding." Abraham Lincoln Second Inaugural Address Saturday, March 4, 1865

6 Minute War in the Middle East - Or - Education, Prosperity and Peace

My father - who was a history teacher and enlisted as a conscientious objector serving as a frontline medic in the Korean War - taught me a love of history, a desire for peace and a concern for the people of the Middle East. I am part of a group called peacemakers and provocateurs. The goals of the group are “to provoke deeper thinking and dialog between people with differing viewpoints, create friendships that can weather our disagreements and to model peace before a polarized world.” 

There is now a lot of discussion about the Iran nuclear accord and I hope the following perspective may be helpful in the pursuit of peace. In the article by the Economist: The Iran nuclear accord - Making the world a bit safer - An imperfect deal that is better than the alternatives July 18th 2015, it states: “Negotiating such deals is difficult and technically complex. The test of their worth is whether they make the world any safer. In Iran’s case, that judgment rests on three questions. Does it make Iran less likely to try to produce a nuclear weapon in the lifetime of the accord? Is it robust enough to make cheating foolhardy both in terms of the likelihood and the consequences of being caught? Is there a reasonable chance that it will produce a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear problem? The short answers are yes, probably and possibly.”

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21657820-imperfect-deal-better-alternatives-making-world-bit-safer

My concerns for the future are:

1. Iran will continue to work to develop nuclear weapons
2. Iran will use money from the lifting of sanctions to promote terrorism
3. It is more likely there will be a war in the Middle East

As someone who wants peace and the best for the people of the Middle East, my question is how to promote both? As a technologist and a futurist, I look for ways to promote peace through technology and prosperity. One thought I had is: Si vis pacem, eruditionem omnis dolor prospera: If you want peace, focus on education and prosperity for all.  As a person of faith, I realize that the ultimate way of peace is to change the hearts of men and women so they desire peace above conflict and their own interests. 

We should support men and women like Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat, Israeli Prime Yitzhak Rabin and Malala Yousafzai who were willing to risk all for the sake of peace. Unfortunately, both men paid the ultimate price for the sake of peace and Malala almost did.

“Malala Yousafzai is a Pakistani student and education activist. She is known for her activism for girls' and women's rights, especially for being allowed to go to school. She was a victim of a gunshot attack in October 2012. Yousafzai is the youngest person to have won the Nobel Peace Prize. She was 17.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malala_Yousafzai

Byron Reese in his book Infinite Progress: How the Internet and Technology Will End Ignorance, Disease, Poverty, Hunger, and War, outlines how technology can help the cause of peace. In the chapter: “How the Internet and Technology Will End War,” First, he quotes George Washington “My first wish is to see this plague of mankind, war, banished from the earth.” Mr. Reese then goes on to state “Just as there is no single cause of war, there will be no single way that war will end. I offer forty-three developments, dynamics, and new realities I believe will work together to bring about an end to war.” I would encourage you to get his book and to review his list. 

He adds “During the Cold War, the peace was maintained based on a doctrine called Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. The reasoning behind MAD was that if we can annihilate the Soviets or the Chinese and they in turn can annihilate us, then none of us will start a war. Preserving this mutual vulnerability was official U.S. policy. I find MAD a disturbing strategy and see problems with it. It relies on the enemy embracing several dubious beliefs: We will launch if they launch, they cannot survive a first strike, they cannot secretly launch. It further assumes that non-state groups don’t get nuclear weapons, that nuclear weapon facilities don’t accidently launch, and that false-positive launch signals aren’t generated. But at the time the doctrine was in force, MAD was effective (or at least, not proven ineffective). It was the basis for the movie War Games, in which the military’s computer finally figures out it can’t win in a nuclear launch scenario and says of such a war, “Strange game. The only winning move is not to play.” MAD is now back, but in economic form. I propose that peace will be maintained in the future by something I will call Mutually Assured Poverty, or MAP. MAP maintains that no matter who wins, when there is war, all parties are ultimately impoverished. This will become ever more unacceptable both to populations and politicians.”

Having grown up under threat of MAD, I am thankful that our world has stepped back a little from this insanity.  Lest you forget how close we came to world destruction, I would encourage you to read:

20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War by Alan F. Philips, M.D. https://nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm

Now the Middle East maybe going down the same path the US and USSR did after WWII. “An ICBM with a nuke warhead fired by Iran goes over 10,000 mph and Israel has 5-7 minutes to see the launch, identify the target and destroy it before it is over Israeli airspace” https://strongandresolute.blogspot.com/2015/04/more-on-new-anti-missile-sytem-of.html

This quote reminded me of the book: Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East by Michael B. Oren. With the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, a new book could be called: The Six Minute War: June 202X and the Destruction of the Modern Middle East? Six Potential End Games for the Iranian Nuclear Program and how to support Peace Instead.

Here is one list of 6 Potential End Games + MAD of what could happen:

1. Iran does not develop a bomb; Iran decides to stop its State sponsorship of terrorism; Israel and the Palestinians sign a peace deal.
2. Iran continues to spend so much money on a nuclear program that their current government is overthrown. Iran never develops a bomb. Side note: “Iran's quest for the development of nuclear program has been marked by enormous financial costs and risks. It is estimated that the program's cost is well over $100 billion [equivalent to $4 Trillion in proportion to the US economy], with the construction of the Bushehr reactor costing over $11 billion, making it one of the most expensive reactors in the world.” Iran GDP is $406B. https://fas.org/pub-reports/new-report-analyzing-irans-nuclear-program-costs-risks/
3. Iran does decide to build a bomb but only after the 10 year limit but it does not use it through the 2020s [Current situation in North Korea - as of March 2016]. Israel does not attack Iran.
4. Iran builds a bomb in the next 10 years and gives it to terrorists but they are caught. International pressure then forces Iran to end its nuclear program. Israel does not attack Iran.
5. Iran builds bombs / ICBM and attacks Israel with them. Israel shoots all of them down. Israel launches nuclear weapons at Iran’s military bases and nuclear weapons facilities ending Iran’s nuclear program. Tens of thousands of people die.
6. Israel feels threatened by Iran to the point that they launch a first strike against Iran. Major war in the Middle East. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of people die.

MAD: Iran builds bombs / ICBM and attacks Israel with them. Israel is not able to shoot all of them down. Major Israeli population centers are destroyed. Israel launches nuclear weapons at Iran’s military bases, nuclear weapons facilities and Iranian population centers. Tens if not hundreds of Millions of people die.

The question I ask myself is: how can I help to promote peace so the first end game of peace happens and not MAD? One thought I had is that rather than focus on peace in the Middle East that has been so hard to obtain, maybe the focus should be on education and prosperity – and by focusing on these, peace may come. In America, talented millennials work in their “garages” to try to solve some of the world’s problems: low cost clean energy, water, food, housing, healthcare and access to education and jobs. It is sad that so many talented Middle East millennials are working in their “garages” to build weapons of war, rockets and suicide bombs.

 I just read the book: I Am Malala: The Girl Who Stood Up for Education and Was Shot by the Taliban, which encouraged me to donate to her organization. https://www.malala.org/ I would encourage those who are passionate about the Middle East to support peace and organizations like this.

In Malala’s speech at the UN, she said “So dear sisters and brothers, now it's time to speak up. So today, we call upon the world leaders to change their strategic policies in favor of peace and prosperity. We call upon the world leaders that all of these deals must protect women and children's rights. A deal that goes against the rights of women is unacceptable.

We call upon all governments to ensure free, compulsory education all over the world for every child. We call upon all the governments to fight against terrorism and violence. To protect children from brutality and harm. We call upon the developed nations to support the expansion of education opportunities for girls in the developing world. We call upon all communities to be tolerant, to reject prejudice based on caste, creed, sect, color, religion or agenda to ensure freedom and equality for women so they can flourish. We cannot all succeed when half of us are held back. We call upon our sisters around the world to be brave, to embrace the strength within themselves and realize their full potential.”

 I had hesitated posting this essay because of the controversy and strong opinions people have over the Middle East but after hearing this speech, I felt a need to post it to promote peace.

 In Dr. Ian Morris book, “Why the West Rules--for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future,“ it outlines Social Development through 15,000 years of history measuring four traits: 1) energy capture, 2) organization/ urbanization, 3) war-making and 4) information technology. Dr. Morris then considers the next 100 years and states, “the twenty-first century is going to be a race. In one lane is some sort of Singularity; in the other, Nightfall. One will win and one will lose. There will be no silver medal. Either we will soon (perhaps before 2050) begin a transformation even more profound than the industrial revolution, which may make most of our current problems irrelevant, or we will stagger into a collapse like no other.” We need to support people like Malala who are working hard for peace and education to solve the world’s problems so “Nightfall” does not happen.

In Dr. Morris’ book, War! What Is It Good For?: Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots he quotes England’s Lord Palmerston, the foreign secretary, in 1848 “We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual friends,” only “our interests are eternal and perpetual.”  But if the ultimate mutual interest is peace, then maybe we can indeed have eternal allies and perpetual friends. I want to support those who work so hard to promote peace and prosperity with the people of the Middle East so that one day, even Israel and Palestine may be allies, brothers and sisters, children of Abraham - living together in peace. 

So in conclusion, I want to encourage education and especially education for women. Maybe by focusing on the education of women this will keep men from blowing themselves and the world up.

“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.” – Jesus