5G – Who will be the winner?

As we move from 4G era to 5G paradigm, all computing, storage and networking functions other than Radio Unit (RU) in the O-RAN scenario, can run on CLOUDS (edge, regional and Core). The open, modular, cloud native and slicing enabled 5G architecture, as defined by 3gpp, IETF, and ETSI, lends itself to implementation using the latest cloud techniques, such as micro services, open APIs and DevOps. The entire network can be set up with one click in the cloud using NVFs/CNFs, and managed/operated by orchestration and automation techniques.

Clearly cloud platforms AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google), and Azure (Microsoft) are rushing to provide infrastructure services to bring all 5G Core, OSS/BSS, Cloud RAN and edge workloads to their clouds. On the Radio side, tower operators such as Crown Castle, American Tower and SBA Communications are also likely to be big players in 5G, as densification to radio is needed for successful 5G roll out. Both groups, along with device/chip vendors, are working with Telecommunication providers, who hold the last mile in 5G – the spectrum.

So, who will be the winners in 5G -- Cloud providers, tower operators, or telco? These entities provide the infrastructure and fast highways, but who will benefit from this infrastructure? Who will build the next shiny car to travel these highways? If we look in the rear-view mirror at 4G/LTE, it was not infrastructure players, but Over the Top (OTT) players, particularly Apple with iOS and Google with Android, who were clear winners and saw their market caps soar in the 4G/LTE environment.

What was so special about the OTT players -- their app cloud platforms, easier to use devices, or fast connections? Such elements were available before 4G/LTE in a fixed environment, so what created the value -- MOBILITY in your pocket untethered from your desk and land line infrastructure? Now fast forward to 5G, which is predominately an enterprise play (consumers are not complaining that they can’t watch video on Instagram!), do we agree that MOBILITY is still the KEY, where end points move beyond factory walls and enterprise premises?

If MOBILITY is a major factor in 5G, which top 2 vertical industries or players will be the true winners? Just like Apple and Google were the top 2 winners of 4G/LTE (in 5G with added benefits of high speed, low latency, almost 100% reliability, and massive IoT) will players in Transportation (including Automotive), Military/Defense, Logistics, Healthcare, Industrial Automation or Entertainment be the winners in 5G? Name two of your favorites.