5G: The solution to every problem?

The ultimate vision for 5G wireless is very aggressive and, well...visionary...as it should be. It seems that whatever your problem is, 5G is the solution. Or at least an enabler. 5G promises blazing fast bandwidth, extremely low latency, awesome virtual reality, connected autonomous vehicles, the fourth industrial revolution, nationwide smart grids, a revolution in healthcare and much more. Flying cars, perhaps? According to a recent survey, most Americans expect wonderful things from 5G.

It is easy to become jaded about the promises of 5G while we are still early in the technology adoption cycle. But there is real progress being made on 5G.

Last fall, Verizon launched its 5G Home internet service, a 5G-based fixed broadband service that uses Verizon's proprietary 5GTF standard on the 28 GHz band. (Verizon plans to roll that system over to the 3GPP standard later.) This is the first 5G deployment in the U.S, available in a limited number of cities. While it is legitimate to call this 5G, it is fixed (not mobile) and delivers on just a small slice of the ultimate vision for 5G.

Meanwhile AT&T introduced an enhancement to its existing LTE infrastructure and received quite some criticism for branding it "5G Evolution". See AT&T will put a fake 5G logo on its 4G LTE phones. AT&T also turned on "real" mobile 5G in 12 cities on 39 GHz, currently offering a hotspot as user equipment (no phones available yet). You can read about the AT&T 5G story here.

T-Mobile and Sprint are in the process of merging, perhaps in the first half of 2019. T-Mobile has been talking about a 5G launch in the 600 MHz band in 2018 or 2019, going nationwide in 2020. Just yesterday, Light Reading reported that T-Mobile rolled out 5G network equipment in 30 cities late last year. However, the company is not yet offering 5G services as it waits for 5G smartphones to become available. Sprint says that it will launch 5G service using 2.5 GHz in the first half of 2019.

While 2019 and 2020 will be an exciting time for engineers in the wireless industry, most consumers will probably not see the benefits of 5G until later. I think the article below (expecting full benefit in 2020) is a bit optimistic. It will take time for the infrastructure to be built out geographically and it remains to be seen how quickly consumers will buy new equipment to get the advantages of 5G. Rumors indicate that Apple will wait until at least 2020 to introduce a 5G iPhone. (I may be overly pessimistic because of too much time spent in rural areas with barely a 3G indicator on my phone.)

The promise of 5G depends on three major technology shifts: New Radio (NR) technology, higher frequencies and smaller cells. The NR technology is being figured out by the standards committees. Higher frequencies enable higher bandwidth but with reduced radio range (hence the need for smaller cells). Watch how the mobile network operators make spectrum decisions that impact the customer experience. The lower frequency bands (such as T-Mobile's 600 MHz) will provide better coverage per base station but will not have the high data rates that are possible at >24 GHz. Conversely, the >24 GHz bands will have shorter radio range but will deliver blazing fast bandwidth. The shorter range generally requires smaller cells and/or higher gain antennas. (For more insight, see 5G buildout will be more involved than we’ve been led to believe.) For best return on investment, small cells will tend to be deployed where there is higher population density. So expect best 5G performance in major cities and not so much in rural areas. Sound familiar?

Rest assured, 5G is coming to your town. However, we are still early in the technology adoption so you might see it in your area this year or more likely a bit later. It will enable a new customer experience and exciting new applications. But don't expect flying cars just yet.