Is 5G finally about to hit the mainstream? Part 1

Few things are as frustrating as waiting for an innovation that has huge potential to get the chance to fulfil it – which is pretty much where I think we have been with 5G for the past few years. With the exception of Asian markets, the speed at which large percentages of the population are getting access to 5G is much slower than the last big upgrade, when 4G came on the scene.

Why is this important, and why are people like me (still) going on about it? Personally, it’s because of the potential that 5G has to move things on for us in terms of connectivity. If you’re not familiar with the terminology, or how mobile networks have evolved over the past years, let me start with a quick recap. Basically, since the 1980s, we’ve seen a fairly major shift every ten years or so that lets both consumers and businesses communicate more easily:

• 1G?(1979). The first generation of wireless telephone technology, which gave us analogue voice calls that could travel massive distances, but could be picked up by radio scanners.
• 2G?(1991). When networks started using digital signal and the GSM standard. SMS and MMS were born.
• 3G?(2001). The first generation to offer mobile internet via devices like the Nokia WAP phone. It didn’t really work, but was a massive move forward in terms of speed.
• 4G?(2009). At last, a network fast and responsive enough to handle video calling, streaming, surfing and gaming.
• 5G?(2019). Better reaction times and massive capacity for simultaneous connections, making the IoT and truly superfast internet a viable reality.
• 6G?(?). We’re not there with 5G yet, but I’m hoping 6G will use quantum tech so we can make decent phone calls from our new communities on Mars, a mere 142 million miles and 5 light years away from Earth.

So what’s the problem? Well, 5G and its predecessors are not like-for-like technologies, so it’s not a simple case of making a few tweaks to existing infrastructure. Smaller wavelengths and higher frequencies might mean much faster speeds and many more simultaneous connections, but they also bring their own complexities.?

One of these is overlapping spectrum requirements, as experienced in the US, where there are not only fears that 5G could?interfere with aircraft electronics, but operators are also finding themselves in competition with?military communications and weather services?for use of the airwaves. Meanwhile, the Netherlands, where I have an interest in the deployment of 5G, has?delayed the auction of its 3.5 GHz frequencies?until the satellite operator Inmarsat and the government can find a safe solution for releasing these.?

Across much of Europe, the mast network doesn’t help. While the distance between masts is fine for 2G, 3G and 4G on low-band spectrum, in a lot of cases it’s too great to effectively carry signal in the mid-band frequencies allocated for 5G. And because building new sites is nearly impossible, many operators are relying on?dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS)?between 4G and 5G to plug the gap.

However, this is not a viable long-term solution if we are to gain the instantaneous reaction times needed for applications like VR, smart manufacturing, logistics and autonomous vehicles – not to mention the critical energy efficiencies 5G can unlock.

Then there’s the equipment. 5G radio boxes used to be much heavier than their 4G equivalents, making upgrading, installation and maintenance a heftier undertaking, not just in the physical sense, but in securing the planning permissions needed from local authorities, landlords and landowners.?As anyone who works in telecoms will tell you, these negotiations can absolutely play havoc with rollout plans and network coverage.

So if you’ve been wondering why 5G seems to be taking time to hit its stride, these are some of the reasons. But recently, there have been indications that despite the many challenges involved in deploying 5G, it could (finally, maybe) be about to hit the mainstream.?

According to Ericsson’s latest?Mobility Report, 5G is scaling faster than any previous mobile generation: subscriptions are expected to reach 1 billion by the end of this year, and 4.4 billion by the end of 2027. Although this is not representative of all countries, being heavily influenced by North East Asia and North America, the 1 billion target is still due to be reached two years faster than it was with 4G. Another study suggests that 5G will generate?$7 trillion of economic value?in 2030.

There are varying reports about how many commercial 5G networks exist worldwide. Latest figures from the?GSA?indicate that it has more than 260 catalogued, although not all of these will be nationwide – or even stateside – concerns. But one thing is for sure, and it is that in general, the numbers are trending up. Ericsson notes that there are now more than 20 standalone 5G networks in operation, and private networks are also starting to be deployed with increasing frequency. Even Amazon is getting in on the action, and while?AWS Private 5G?doesn’t actually support 5G yet, surely this is an indication that the market is about to explode?:)

So which operators are worth watching, and what are the standout use cases? Stay tuned for part 2, where I’ll share some of the examples I’m excited about.

Photo credit:?Roman, Pixabay