The 5G Consumer Conundrum - a technology in search of a host device

Every “G” within the Telecom industry has been underpinned by a service that cemented the benefit of the technology leap. And these services have been underpinned by a halo device that was the standard bearer for the industry. Going back in time, I have nostalgic memories of the Motorola Razr, the #blackberry - and now for over a decade, the #iphone . The iPhone was not only a device, but brought forth an entire app ecosystem which has defined mobile development till this point. #android is a worthy alternative, but when given a choice, app developers begin with the iPhones, that's what’s in the hands of the higher end customer.

But now, 15 years later we are now talking evolution, not revolution. The phones have better battery life, screens are larger, apps are smarter…… but the form factor has remained the same. Attempts by others to try something new have met with limited, if any success. Perhaps - just perhaps, we have either reached “peak perfection” in terms of design - or maybe, simply the limits of our imagination to date. Small wonder, when operators try to “sell” the 5G story, we do not see the long lines of yesteryears clamoring for a new device.

We simply need….. A new form factor. The question is, where will this come from?        

The obvious choice starts with #ar - and with Apple, who for years has been working in this space, and is rumored to have something ready to launch in 2023. I have no doubt that when it is released, there will be a mad rush of Apple aficionados ready to try out the latest gizmo. This may be tied to its existing app ecosystem, or perhaps worthy enough to have its own. This doesn’t come without challenges; simply looking at what is available in the market today and then you realize that most of these devices are not truly mobile, are expensive, heavy - and well, give you a literal headache. If Apple goes down a similar route, then rather being truly mobile in the real sense, it will see adoption and usage at home; my #wifi6 connection would work just fine, thank you very much.

The other contenders are Microsoft, #magicleap , #Meta who have or have announced some sort of head mounted AR/ VR devices. But none of them are addressing the mass mobility market or have achieved any significant traction to be truly considered a success story. And this is not for lack of trying or technical capabilities. Each of these firms are able to hire the best, have significant R&D and marketing budgets and could deliver if there indeed was a product market fit. Out of these three, my hunch is that Magic Leap’s position would be the most tenuous in these harsh economic conditions being a one trick pony. Both Microsoft and Meta have other profitable business units and/ or shareholder sway to subsidize longer term bets.

But again, maybe the future form factor is not around AR/VR (Apple car maybe?)….. The question would be what, and more importantly who could deliver on this promise. Rounding up the bigger players we have Google, #samsung and #Amazon (and the clever folk in Lab126)- all of whom certainly could try. But success is never assured.? Another hurdle to overcome (especially in a difficult economy) is longevity of commitment from the leadership, amidst other competing priorities. This is evident in the best of them like Amazon, which kept up its #alexa plans until the losses were too much for even Amazon to stomach.

This leaves the door open for a set of new upstarts. Those that are laser focused on their mission, have the technology talent to deliver and create a brand upfront. Much like Elon Musk’s Tesla in its early days; its first car was an expensive roadster (one which is currently in orbit ) and the focus was on getting the design and the tech right - and singularly focusing on the same. As awareness and acceptance increases (whether it be a head mounted device, a wrist band, a ring or some other accessory), then one can focus on the ecosystem, supply chain etc.

A few souls will move down this less trodden path, with even fewer VC’s willing to bet on this. Nearly all (97%) of the 400 hardware startups tracked by CB Insights in 2017 either died or became zombie firms. Some of them came with pedigreed founders; Andy Rubin (the guy behind Android) startup Essential , folded in 2020. From Eric Migicovsky 's Pebble to struggling Fitbit’s acquisition by Google or even Eero’s firesale to Amazon, success stories seem to be few and far between.

And in spite of it all, there are yet some who dare to venture here. Mostly in secret, not having design, hardware, software, supply chain and a myriad of other issues locked in before launch could render one right in the crosshairs of a well heeled competitor. Humane is one of them. Little is publicly known about what they plan to launch apart from a few patent filings, the makeup of the team and well - some aspirational videos .

The founders ( Imran Chaudhri (design at Apple) and Bethany Bongiorno (engineering at Apple)) and team bear the pedigree right from the hallowed corridors of design and engineering at Apple. If anything, they - similar to Chris Bonington’s epic 1970 Annapurna South Face expedition are acutely aware of the dangers and pitfalls of such an undertaking.

As Bonington wryly put it - they were there because it was the hard way up. A big cheers to all these scrappy underdogs (even the most well funded startup is poor next to the likes of Apple) to their attempts to change our lives and the way we interact with technology and with each other. They may well still fail - but it certainly wouldn’t be for the lack of trying.

We have spent the last 15 years looking down at our phones, our necks stooped and our minds warped with the endless quantity of information and drivel thrown at us. Maybe, it is now time to lift our heads, look up straight and reimagine our world and surroundings that we live in.