#59 Reflection: Can You Handle the Future?

After provocative future stories about "metaverse gender neutrality ," "mental art," "co-parenting," and "food waste," it is time again for a FUTURE reflection.

Last time, we looked at the "Neutrality in Futures Thinking ." This time, the topic goes straight to the point: Can everyone handle futures thinking?

Stay with me on this provoking topic, and don't forget to hit the ??!

Let us start...

Envisioning and planning for what lies ahead is often touted as a universal skill. We all dream and make plans, whether it's for tonight's dinner or our career in ten years. But how well can we truly anticipate the unexpected? How do we grapple with the uncertainty that triggers our deepest anxieties, like our career path?

The truth is, foresight isn't just about casual daydreaming. It demands a level of mental and biological "resilience". While some decisions come easily, such as “What do you eat for dinner?” others, like “How does your career path in the next decades look?” trigger a stress response rooted in our biology.

Although we all possess the potential to think about the future, the quality of the output depends on how much time and effort we dedicate to this task.

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The Biological Limits

Our very human biology might be a futures blocker. Cortisol, a hormone crucial for survival, plays a pivotal role in it. When we search for novelty, uncertainty, and uncontrollability, our biological reaction is; more stress. The consequence? A further increase in our cortisol levels impairs our cognitive functions. Specifically, the hippocampus, the brain's memory center, and the basal ganglia, responsible for habit formation and planning, are particularly vulnerable to the detrimental effects of stress.

Can we train our brains to be more resilient to stress and better at future thinking?? Like everything in life, training makes the difference. In this case, individuals who regularly engage in future thinking, uncertainty, possibilities, and the search for genuity cope with stress better.

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The Neurological Challenges

Research by Schacter and Buckner suggests that our ability to envision the future is deeply intertwined with our memory of the past. They propose a "constructive episodic simulation hypothesis," where the same brain regions that allow us to recall past events are also engaged when we imagine future scenarios. This means that our memories might serve as a filter through which we interpret the future, creating an illusion of predictability.

However, it's important to note that this core network doesn't operate in isolation. Other brain regions also contribute to our capacity for foresight. This intricate interplay of multiple brain regions underscores the complexity of future thinking. It's not a simple process confined to a single area but a dynamic collaboration involving diverse neural networks that contribute unique perspectives and insights.

However, as mentioned before, stress works against us and can impair key brain regions.

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The Cognitive Biases

Finally, after our biological resistance to stress and the risk that our memories might create false trails, cognitive biases can distort our perceptions of the future. There are many from present bias, optimism bias, confirmation bias, or status quo bias, to mention some.

Let us pick one: the present bias. We prioritize immediate gratification over long-term benefits, making it difficult to save for the future or make sacrifices in the present for a better future. This is also very dominant in our work environment: All the KPIs, OKRs, sprint planning, FOMO, and bonus payments don’t help here either to break out.

The present bias in companies is taking a serious toll on innovation. ?A recent report on innovation and Strategy from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) surprisingly shows that companies prioritize efficiency and throughput at the expense of strategy. Innovation readiness reduced from 20% in 2022 to 3% in 2024.

How can companies break out of this present bias trap? Instead of solely reacting to immediate pressures, we could proactively focus on creating a portfolio of options, a diverse pool of "half-refined" ideas for different possible futures, and solutions ready to be utilized when needed. This way, when a crisis hits, companies have options at hand to react; when a trend emerges, companies can move faster; when efficiency is needed, companies have a pool to explore existing options; and when breakthroughs are needed, companies can combine, and test based on a higher maturity of ideas. How to do so? Well, there will be a future post about it.

Think of the option portfolio as a pool of colorful plastic balls children love diving into. Each ball represents an option: an idea, refined and factual. There are no vague insights or one-liners, but quality ideas that you can work with. This pool of possibilities empowers companies to be agile, responsive, and innovative, ensuring they are well-equipped to navigate the ever-changing landscape of the future.

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We need to reduce our stress to explore the future.

The constant pressure in our lives, to innovate and simultaneously manage current product development is a source of stress for many. This situation needs to change. We need people who clearly focus on the future, and we need to change what future thinking stands for. It is not daydreaming; it is exploring possibilities to prepare the company when it needs new strategic wind, to reduce the uncertainties in future decisions when a trend accelerates, and ultimately, to ensure the long-term success of our products.

One side note: It's important to recognize that not every employee needs to be directly involved in exploring future possibilities, just as not everyone needs to be an innovator. Political messaging about universal abilities is counterproductive. A more pragmatic approach is to designate a dedicated (small) team of individuals to focus on this crucial task, allowing others to concentrate on their core responsibilities.

Secondly, as strange as it sounds, we must be mindful of the present to think effectively about the future. Mindfulness, meditation, yoga, and spending time in nature can help lower cortisol levels, improve cognitive function, and create a more conducive environment for future thinking. Perhaps we need more "walking meetings"?

Also, we should approach the future as neutrally as possible. Our ego and personal beliefs are irrelevant when exploring potential outcomes. We need to be open and evaluate changes as they are without judgment.

Finally, we must avoid controlling the future; this creates immense stress and limits our perspective. Instead, we should focus on preparing for various options – this is where the concept of an options portfolio comes into play. We need to have a range of solutions available to address different scenarios as they arise.

So we can summarize: breathe in and out, and you can think about the future more clearly.

What is your opinion about this topic? Can or even should everyone do foresight in the company?