55 pieces that made 2023

?? work in progress ??????

?? If you want a short-cut / table of contents with all titles and links go to https://lnkd.in/dR34iyGX.

?? For the WHY, go to https://lnkd.in/dUepe4yC

Here we go, 55 images and charts as well as videos:

1?? Semiconductors in vehicle BOM - https://lnkd.in/eZi-f6JT

Note the glide path of increase in semiconductors in vehicles, expressed in % of the BOM (bill of materials), towards 2030.

Main ?: will we see those % down the road and how will automotive and semiconductor “grow together”. Who will lead ? The vehicle OEM buying semiconductors or semicon-producers building cars ?

2?? Battery production now & 2027 - https://lnkd.in/dE_eKv2g

Look at the glide path towards 2027, in absolute values and in the share several countries take. No surprise of course in China leading. The more interesting part happens in the group of followers.

Main ?: Where will the absolute total value and the shares go. East or West ?

3?? On emotors - https://lnkd.in/dgX9d_s8

One of the best Engineering Lectures I saw on the basics of emotors as well as on exciting new technology directions Emotor design allows for.

Main ?: which designs will take the high performance market, the commodity market and how will we kick out crucial elements?

4?? “Tesla Mafia in Batteries” - https://lnkd.in/duM3NGxs

What started at Tesla changes the world. See which people worked there and went out later to ….change the world.

Main ?: who will be main players outside those people and is there any other company that creates such offspring?

5?? Innovation Speed - https://lnkd.in/d8AeN6yE

In 2000 in Automotive it could be prohibitive to be too fast in innovation. The optimum innovation speed seemed to be lower to ensure lowest risk. While in 2020 it became clear that higher innovation speed could become a positive key differentiator, also innovation in production, not just product technology.

Main ?: who will race fast enough AND still minimize the damage coming out of “risky innovation” ? What will the customers tolerate ?

6?? Gordon Moore - 2023 - https://lnkd.in/dvCKsgbU

Gordon E. Moore, the “inventor” of Moore‘s law, died in 2023. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production.

The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel (and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit,[a]and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%. While Moore did not use empirical evidence in forecasting that the historical trend would continue, his prediction has held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law".

Main ?: Will the law live on and which creative moves will allow that ?

7?? AI development speed - https://lnkd.in/d_mztYp6

The chart shows how long it took certain AI capabilities to surpass humans in performance. The development cycles became shorter and shorter.

Main ?: so far we speak about capability slices of humans - as impressive as they are, a simple insect still beats AI. When will we be able to “emulate” an insect and which steps are on this road ?

8?? Building big - https://lnkd.in/dfhdHj84

The cartoon illustrates that while you are building something amazing you might not even notice it. You need to trust your building skills and ideally be able to improve them as you go. You will see it at the end when you look at your work.

Main ?: have you built something beautiful over time ? Can you expand it or do something similar again? Make sure you step back at times and enjoy.

9?? Mining hurts - https://lnkd.in/dffpzzB2

Often we are confronted with the consequences of mining which will remain as necessity for a modern mankind. The chart attempts to quantify our mining efforts across different sectors.

Main ?: how clean will our battery mining become ?

?? Mars Timeline - https://lnkd.in/dK_ycWu3

The chart shows the potential road to Mars over time with key events or milestones as well as launch windows for the trip to the red planet.

Main ?: when is the “Mars shuttle” (most likely Starship) available for a first try and when will we make a step with a few of them. My prediction: it will be the job of Musk’s successor(s). Best case.

1??1?? Starship 1/23 - https://lnkd.in/ddnpmhZG

First attempt at orbit by Starship and booster. Not all engines were firing. An “unscheduled disassembly” happened and significant improvements on the launch ramp are needed for the next run.

See

?? Milestones https://lnkd.in/efuwRi8B

?? Flight path https://lnkd.in/epUQEwmn

?? Engines https://lnkd.in/e_CzJa3Q

Main ?: what will the final system look like, by when and look

at 1??0?? as well.

1??2?? New OEM - https://lnkd.in/dWSnti9B

The chart shows in beautiful clarity what the new OEMs need to manage to also control the digital value chain in and around the vehicle.

Main ?: Will any single OEM reach this goal and how much space is there for how many players ?

1??3?? Renewable Fuels - https://lnkd.in/dvcBtd_2

This chart shows the basics of renewable fuels which is a circular path for carbon vs. the one way street for fossiles which is a one way path of adding carbon to the system. Vehicles powered by renewable fuels reduce CO2 by 90% immediately without the massive embedded CO2 of BEVs. Renewable fuels are hence one of the excellent options going forward, reducing CO2 in major steps. Please note the difference between e-fuels and renewable fuels.

Main ?: how fast will we scale beneficial feedstocks and get cost down ?

1??4?? Profit/Vehicle - https://lnkd.in/dYK_dpCw

A few years ago a candidate for death by lack of profitability, Tesla become number 2 of profit per vehicle right after Ferrari. Not a small achievement.

Main ?: We will see how the many price reductions in 2023 will reshape this picture going forward.

1??5?? Worker Rights - https://lnkd.in/ddRPmmUQ

With this chart in mind it is no big surprise that “the Tesla Whistleblower” worked in Norway and labor disputes go on in Sweden. Aside from Tesla - a bit disappointing how few countries are green on that map.

Main ?: do you think it is surprising that Tesla fights with unions in Sweden

and soon in Norway and Denmark ? “The Whistleblower” worked in in Norway. Will we get more green countries on the map ?

1??6?? BEV & OEMs - https://lnkd.in/etf5sUfD

One of the best charts showing development of BEV production by player, country of OEM headquarter and over time.

Main ?: any room besides Tesla and BYD ? Who will be 3,4,5?

1??7?? Vehicle Safety - https://lnkd.in/db5VJb-r

The chart shows the impressive development of passenger safety over time with the respective progress in technology

Main ?: how low can we go with which elements ? ADAS/AD ?

1??8?? Why Nuclear ? - https://lnkd.in/e_Yj85Bq

In this little piece I wrote myself, I try to make the case for a Nuclear Exit not being feasible. Even Germany which executed it, now has to enter decades of activity. We are tied to Nuclear already as a legacy of those who decided decades back. That is the nature of this technology.

Main ?: how much stamina will the current “Nuclear Wave” (re-animation of growth) have ? My view: a lot, if there is no major accident.

1??9?? Battery Chemistry - https://lnkd.in/dgZXBwjq

Main ?: How many mainstream “chemistries” will we see evolve ?

2??0?? Cybersecurity Battleground - https://lnkd.in/d6h_7hQH

Main ?: Will it shape like computers and phones etc. - annoying but under control ?

2??1?? Truck TCO - https://lnkd.in/dveCpZd8

Main ?: Is hydrogen really still in ?

2??2?? Battery Roadmap - https://lnkd.in/esrW5upK

Main ?: Is this the ceiling ? Will there be evolution AND disruption?

2??3?? Jim Farley on Software - https://lnkd.in/dKevVYqf

Main ?: Will the OEMs get out of this cage ?

2??4?? Fabless OEMs - https://lnkd.in/dreGBRBT

Main ?: If it happens, where will the foundries be ? The Fabs?

2??5?? CARIAD - https://lnkd.in/dt9tuR57

Main?: when.

2??6?? AI Players - https://lnkd.in/dbaCfsC8

Main ?: are the projections correct and complete, or is there much more (or less?). My view: more!

2??7?? BEVs on Ships - https://lnkd.in/ddTpPXfd

Main ?: where will the equilibrium be ?

2??8?? Battery Ships - https://lnkd.in/dy25CH3C

Main ?: first, let’s separate myths and facts…

2??9?? AI use cases - https://lnkd.in/dwEakEH5

Main ?: Correct and Complete ? How will it look in a few years ?

3??0?? Premium BEVs - https://lnkd.in/d6Xt93du

Main ?: What do consumers with a lot of money like to pay for ?

3??1?? Best ??s - https://lnkd.in/eZS24JCH

Main ?: How fast will we get the CO2 IN batteries down significantly ?

3??2?? New ?? Process - https://lnkd.in/e3rj_xhS

Main ?: In a year or two, how will its metrics look vs 3??3???? ?

3??3?? Current ?? Process - https://lnkd.in/e3rj_xhS

Main ?: Will mature automakers have to adapt 3??2???? ?

3??4?? 770 km BEVs - https://lnkd.in/d2VKZhA9

Main ?: How many of us want (to pay for) 770 km ?

3??5?? Marrying emotor & inverter - https://lnkd.in/dady6-aR

Main ?: Which concept for which application ? But, first just enjoy the lecture !

3??6?? ADAS 3 at 3 - https://lnkd.in/eXThMr_v

3??7?? Moore’s law of Tesla - https://lnkd.in/dRN85qPB, https://lnkd.in/eeQZd_cc

3??8?? Open House Electromobility - https://lnkd.in/esadsjN9

3??9?? Tesla Partners - https://lnkd.in/dc3YgC7p

4??0?? Shifting by zeros - https://lnkd.in/dZdZhUtQ

4??1?? President underground - https://lnkd.in/dyqRt2cN

4??2?? Inflation up & down - https://lnkd.in/d6XwmJwK

4??3?? Car assembly ‘23 - https://lnkd.in/eTQmQkzw

4??4?? Affordable BEVs - https://lnkd.in/dJCRNqt8

4??5?? Strategic Chip Reserve - https://lnkd.in/dh9qUNNy

4??6?? BEV growth - https://lnkd.in/eQ-PuyFK

4??7?? BEV log plots - https://lnkd.in/eaZVRMCT

4??8????Cost - https://lnkd.in/eaFZ8f6S

4??9?? Space Carriers - https://lnkd.in/dRE4AHvN

5??0?? Starship 2/23 - https://lnkd.in/dp-BuVKr

5??1?? Global scenaria - https://lnkd.in/dx8zjUnM

5??2?? BEV growth - https://lnkd.in/dyP-5iFu

5??3?? BEV shares - https://lnkd.in/dkjaQs5q

5??4????testing - https://lnkd.in/gUSMHkcf

5??5?? Cybertruck Technology - https://lnkd.in/dG94tY7q

#ww229 #technology #markets #innovation #future #strategy #ww520