520 Weeks of Transforming Transport and Mobility - mapped.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

You will find below 10 CHAPTERS with subdivisions:

• 1 This Project 
• 2 This Document
• 3 Summary of the Five Domains of Change / Map with CASE & other Frameworks
• 4 First Domain: Sustainability
• 5 Second Domain: Technology Maturity
• 6 Third Domain: Total Cost of Ownership
• 7 Fourth Domain: Infrastructure Availability
• 8 Fifth Domain: Design & Knowledge
• 9 Transition Scenaria
• 10 Conclusions

1 THIS PROJECT

This is an online project that aims at:

1. Delivering best data about transformation of mobility, transport and likely related: energy generation. This is promoted by posting under #ww520 - anybody can use this hashtag for their posts or follow it to get updates.
2. Maximum participation from the community via challenging and respectful discussion based on facts.
3. Creating meaningful surveys that we all can respond to and then benefit from all generated data - anonymous, real time, public.
4. My almost daily routine on this and the benefit is described here: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww55-ww520-automotiveindustry-activity-6703392283800166400-Kd15

The change of mobility and transport will be bigger than ever before within the next 10 years or ~ 520 weeks - hence #ww520 as hashtag.

2 THIS DOCUMENT

This article will serve as data repository of the key indicators measuring this change of mobility and transport. It will be neutral to technologies and companies, just tracking progress, obstacles and showing roadmaps and their evolution. The author is NOT part of the ICE, BEV or hydrogen “lobby”, “fan club” or “conspiracy”.

The first version of this article was concluded after 21 weeks at the end of 2019 - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/ww520-wilhelm-graupner-ph-d-

This article here will be under construction at least until the end of 2020. It will follow a structure in 5 domains which are the outcome of the first 21 weeks of discussion and learning.

3 SUMMARY OF THE FIVE DOMAINS OF CHANGE

The Transformation of our Transport and Mobility System will happen in 5 domains:

• as shown in the image below
• and briefly described in the next paragraphs.
• as well as in detail in chapters 4 - 8

Figure 1: Five domains of transformation for the system of transport and mobility.

(1) SUSTAINABILITY more and more becomes the central theme and it has many faces, the most prominent being CO2 emission. But there are others. There are likely two problem areas in SUSTAINABILITY: (A) it is difficult to agree on reasonable joint targets. A mainstream opinion among technologists is likely “Diesel was killed over a non-issue (NOx) while CO2 overall is accepted as a problem”. But there are many others. (B) Sustainability arguments, “if abused”, will not promote progress for us but will make us walk backwards. I foresee a good joint foundation for a thinking of promoting a circular economy for flows of resources.

(2) TECHNOLOGY MATURITY is key, as no immature technology can be in widespread use - for safety and cost concerns. This paragraph could end here except that it might be advisable to try to give a simple definition of “maturity”: safe to use and ready for production could work for starters. We have seen many mature technologies that also have disappeared while other mature technologies took over: film based photography, data, acoustic and video tapes, CDS and DVDs, light bulbs etc. For a technology to be mature is not sufficient to be competitive.

(3) TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP is key to most end customers. Not only cost effective manufacturing is needed here but also adequate financial solutions - a tremendous opportunity. The view of looking at investment cost alone is by far too myopic. A car that costs more to buy but lives significantly longer with much lower operating cost can be quite competitive. Long living, high value assets like batteries can go through different use phases with a managed market and recycling value, promoting opportunities in technology and business.

(4) INFRASTRUCTURE for widespread use is simply a must.

(5) DESIGN AND KNOWLEDGE are by far underutilized in today’s transport and mobility solutions. Satnavs with traffic information are being used already but there is much more to come. Assisting the driver can result in massive safety increase. Guiding traffic in the marine business is assumed to lead to a reduction of 20% of today’s energy consumption, mainly oil.

3.1 Matching the FIVE domains with CASE

In addition it might be interesting to map the 5 domains of change with the established CASE narrative which describes the future of mobility and where CASE stands for Connected Autonomous Shared and Electric. The first 3 terms can be found in the fifth domain, “Design & Knowledge” while “Electric” can be found in all 5 domains.

3.2 Studies looking at change in the automotive world - IBM 2020

Study Methodology used by IBM for its 2020 study: from https://gerpisa.org/system/files/gbe03079-usen-auto2020.pdf

Anticipated change of external forces, impacting the industry - 2008 vs. 2020 (IBM 2020 study): from https://gerpisa.org/system/files/gbe03079-usen-auto2020.pdf

3.3 Evolution of OEMs into Solution Providers and becoming their own Tier 1.

In the conventional ICE based, self driven vehicle world a clear structure of multi Tier suppliers was established and the relationship with the end customer was car sales or lease. The involvement of OEMs beyond this narrow niche did change already before the arrival of Tesla but after Tesla became more and more successful, more OEMs try to transform themselves - see image below taken from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww321-activity-6640941696563585024-4pDl:

4 FIRST DOMAIN: SUSTAINBILITY

4.1 CO2 Emissions Comparison for Powertrains

Well to wheel CO2 emissions development for different Powertrains from 2013 to 2050: from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6568980323378450432-BPvw

Life cycle CO2 emissions development for different powertrains and different primary energy sources: from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww01-activity-6565510001941598208-QDlo

Fuel Savings (= CO2 emission reduction) of hybrids vs. their ICE base models: from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/joshiav_hybrids-have-been-cited-often-to-deliver-activity-6624900758993190912-ky7W

A PROSPEROUS net zero emission community is possible. From https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/ferenckis_netzerocarbon-netzero2050-decarbonisation-activity-6712236570419744768-YjVt

Technical and economical feasibility of a net zero emission community. From https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/ferenckis_netzerocarbon-netzero2050-decarbonisation-activity-6712236570419744768-YjVt

Progress for 2030 to celebrate success in 2050 with a net zero emission community. From https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/ferenckis_netzerocarbon-netzero2050-decarbonisation-activity-6712236570419744768-YjVt

IF CO2 is a driver in your view, then here is the Pareto Analysis as a Pie Chart. From: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/activity-6712906417084342272-7sv8

Energy Sources - from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww52-future-activity-6695900470738739200-1g7h

5 SECOND DOMAIN: TECHNOLOGY MATURITY

5.1 Efficiency Comparison for Powertrains

Well to wheel energy efficiency for different powertrains: from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_energy-efficiency-different-technologiespng-activity-6577319204490358784-he9j

5.2 BEVs

2019/2020 Status of Vehicle Energy Efficiency and Range:

Energy demand per 100 km and vehicle weight: from https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/tesla-leads-energy-efficiency-10-30-marc-amblard

Energy demand per mile: from https://insideevs.com/news/348093/energy-consumption-epa-compared-may-2019/

6 THIRD DOMAIN: TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP

6.1 Comparison of the Powertrains

TCO calculated via its standard eight cost elements: depreciation, financing, fees and taxes, fuel, insurance, maintenance, opportunity cost, and repairs. This analysis covers 2019 models over a 36-month period and 15,000 miles a year. From https://www.fleetforward.com/337415/which-electric-vehicles-have-lowest-total-costs-of-ownership

7 FOURTH DOMAIN: INFRASTRUCTURE AVAILABILTY

8 FIFTH DOMAIN: DESIGN & KNOWLEDGE

Rather than putting a driver in a car and improve the car forever we can do better. We can design a traffic system where the car is only one element and we can use knowledge that the driver does not have to support a better way to move the car. The same statement is true for trucks and ships.

When the car is not the solution, the Powertrain can only minimize the damage - from: https://www-pinterest-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.pinterest.com/amp/pin/382876405795071931/

9 TRANSITION SCENARIA

I would like to start this chapter with a few remarks upfront:

• with ~100 million passenger cars on the road about a million with alternative Powertrains sold every year there will he no RAPID overall fleet (or situation) change within a few years. This makes e.g. renewable fuels truly important.
• this “slow” change brings opportunity as we can learn as we go and make adaptions

10 CONCLUSIONS

1. I suggest to see this transition as a massive opportunity and not a curse at all. We created the world as we know it and now we can make it better - this allows us to flex our intellectual muscle, create a lot of economic opportunity and leave something better behind.
2.