50,000 Satellites - What If They Collide?

20000 objects in LEO (Low Earth Orbit) today, however there are also 500,000 between 1cm - 10cm in size that aren't traceable/trackable and then further millions below 1cm. Anyone of them can cause a big problem, if they hit another satellite/spacecraft especially when traveling at 5-7 miles per second! (25,200 mph)

Welcome to the Kessler Effect: a theory proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, used to describe a self-sustaining cascading collision of space debris in LEO. It's the idea that two colliding objects in space generate more debris that then collides with other objects, creating even more shrapnel and litter until the entirety of LEO is an impassable array of super speedy stuff. At that point, any entering satellite/spacecraft would face unprecedented risks of headfirst bombardment.

We need to watch out for rogue satellite operators. Collectively, regardless of nations, or borders we need to be good custodians of space. 

Operational reliability, well funded and robustly structured organizations are need to ensure the NASA recommended guidelines are followed. See more below

50,000 Satellites orbiting the earth in 10yrs

Is what they expect! 

Given right now there are "only" 2500 in orbit, this means launches at an unprecedented scale.

The reasoning is very much typical for tech: supply & demand

Increasing demand means decreasing costs.

Satellite technology has advanced; demand for bandwidth has soared and will continue to do so and companies have developed creative business models to generate profits from the internet / connectivity.

Things are about to change very soon thanks to an amazing new wave of innovation in the space sector that sees small satellites constellations as a solution to foster a space-based internet connection service that can reach every single place on the globe and is preparing to disrupt traditional home broadband services. 

Analysis, however, indicates that companies planning large LEO satellite internet constellations still need to reduce costs significantly to ensure long-term viability. As you’ll observe later in this article, the inability to last the test of time, means an inability to operate, maintain and decommission satellites, results in assets floating around in an ever increasing space population, out of control!

Lowering launch costs is one part of the equation, but it will be equally or more critical to reduce the cost of manufacturing spacecraft, ground equipment, and user equipment. If suppliers and constellation providers can achieve these cuts, they could unlock enough demand for large LEO constellations to transform both the B2C and B2B communications market globally.

So, What are LEO Satellites?

Although space is vast, satellites are typically located in one of three popular orbital regimes: low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), and geosynchronous orbit (GEO).

Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

The majority (50%) of satellites orbiting the Earth do so at altitudes between 160 and 2,000 kilometers. This orbital regime is called low Earth orbit, or LEO, due to the satellites’ relative closeness to the Earth. Satellites in LEO typically take between 90 minutes and 2 hours to complete one full orbit around the Earth. Low altitudes in combination with short orbital periods make LEO satellites ideally situated for remote sensing missions, including Earth observation and reconnaissance.

With the exception of the Apollo missions, all human space activity has occurred in low Earth orbit. The International Space Station, which currently hosts six astronauts, has an average altitude of about 350km

Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)

Although over 90 percent of all satellites are situated in LEO (below 2,000 kilometers) and GEO (near 36,000 kilometers), the space between the two most popular orbital regimes can be an ideal environment for a smaller subset of satellite systems. Satellites in this middle-of-the-road region, appropriately named medium Earth orbit, have larger footprints than LEO satellites (meaning they can see more of the Earth’s surface at a time) and lower transmission times time than GEO satellites (meaning they have a shorter signal delay because they aren’t as far away).

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a 24-satellite constellation, with each satellite in circular MEO with an altitude of about 20,000 km. The constellation is oriented such that at any given moment, every point on Earth has access to four GPS satellites.

Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO)

Satellites orbiting at 35,786 km have a period precisely equal to one day. Satellites in this orbit, known as geosynchronous Earth orbit, or GEO, observe the Earth as if it were not rotating. Because of this property, satellites in GEO are constantly in the field of view for approximately one-third the planet’s surface.

While about 55 percent of all operational satellites are in LEO, another 35 percent are in GEO, making it the second most popular orbital regime.

Some examples of satellites in GEO include the Intelsat communications satellites and the DISH Network direct broadcasting satellites.

Why LEO Satellites?

The new LEO-satellite concepts, offer faster communications (lower latency) and often provide higher bandwidth per user than GEO satellites do. Communication occurs through a constellation of LEO satellites; global coverage requires a large number of spacecraft. These concepts will require major changes in satellite operations, including manufacturing and the supply chain, since they ask more of a satellite and shorten its average life span (estimated to be around 5yrs).

Unlike traditional satellites, they are much smaller and lighter and much cheaper. Costing around $1 million and about to drop sharply over the coming years thanks to the standardization of many satellite parts and the production on assembly lines.

Right now, half the world is offline and that is a waste of talent!

Seamless and integrated

In addition, in the fast arriving 5G interconnected world, our smart cities will utilize ultrafast speeds and low latency to connect everything in it. This requires small 5G towers placed in high traffic areas that demand a lot of bandwidth and have a direct line of sight for optimal speed and performance. 

LEO Satellites will be critical in extending cellular 5G networks to air, sea and other remote areas not covered by small cell networks.

From an industry perspective, IoT sensors and M2M connections on farms and remote worksites like mines can also capitalize on the wide coverage areas offered by 5G satellites. 

Integrating satellites with 5G infrastructure improves the User Experience in high capacity data areas. By intelligently routing and offloading traffic, satellites save valuable spectrum and improve the resilience of each network. 

In the event of a natural or man-made disaster where 5G infrastructure is damaged, satellite networks can take over and keep the network alive. While they will not be able to provide a full set of services, they can still retain critical and life-saving communication services during disasters. 

Satellite communication has a deep history in providing secure networks for high-speed and mission-critical environments like air navigation systems. With larger satellite constellations and improving latency, satellite networks can supply the required backhaul for high-speed services.

What are backhaul services?

thanks to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backhaul_(telecommunications)

In a hierarchical telecommunications network, the backhaul[1] portion of the network comprises the intermediate links between the core network, or backbone network, and the small subnetworks at the edge of the network.

The most common network type in which backhaul is implemented is a mobile network. A backhaul of a mobile network, also referred to as mobile-backhaul connects a cell site towards the core network. The two main methods of mobile backhaul implementations are fiber-based backhaul and wireless point-to-point backhaul.[2] Other methods, such as copper-based wireline, satellite communications and point-to-multipoint wireless technologies are being phased out as capacity and latency requirements become higher in 4G and 5G networks.

Satellite networks can be used as a single centralized backhaul for traffic unloading, edge processing, and resource sharing. 

With the right blend of economics and performance characteristics, satellites can provide additional services to high-speed platforms and network environments that are difficult to manage by terrestrial systems only (i.e connected cars, airplanes, drones, etc). 

Satellites can complement 5G and provide backhaul services, especially in areas where it’s difficult to install physical infrastructure.

Suffice to say, the next space race is indeed 5G-enabled satellites.

Who's involved in the new Space-Race?

There is a number of companies that are pioneering new solutions.The new private sector space-race is now open with the aim of building the 50,000 low earth orbit satellite constellations that can bring high-speed wireless internet & much more everywhere:

• SpaceX - Starlink is the build and launch of a potential 10000+ small satellites constellation. It will beam down cheap and easily accessible WiFi internet access to users all over the world, even in regions that never had coverage before. This new infrastructure of satellites, weighting between 100 and 500 kilograms, has really the potential to make the global space-based internet service a reality.
• OneWeb is a revilatized and promising player in the small satellites sector. After filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March 2020, OneWeb re-emerged late last year under the ownership of the British government and Indian telecom firm Bharti Global. It promises competitiveness both on price and connection speed when compared to standard internet services on earth.
• Amazon is currently working on Project Kuiper, that would lead to the deployment of a fleet of 3,236 satellites into low earth orbit with the aim to provide high-speed internet connection everywhere around the globe.

These aren’t the only ones, companies like Boeing, Telesat, Planet Labs, Digital Globe and many others are working to put small satellites into orbit.

How are they bringing down costs?

How can large LEO-constellation providers unlock demand by making their prices competitive with terrestrial solutions? The only sustainable answer is significantly reducing costs, from manufacturing to launch to user equipment. 

Manufacturing

Satellites have historically been more handcrafted items than to mass-produced goods. Customization, combined with long life-span requirements, means high costs ($50,000 to $60,000 per kilogram).

Enter Elon 1st Principle thinking. When stripped down to raw materials along with economies of scale and things start to become for affordable. 

If large LEO constellations are to be financially viable, their manufacturing costs must fall by more than an order of magnitude from those of traditional satellites. That would probably be at least 75 percent lower than the costs any company has currently claimed it can achieve (for information on our methodology for estimates, see sidebar “Cost calculations for large LEO constellations”). To cut costs in this way, manufacturers must leverage every possible tool, from economies of scale to automation to reduced component costs across the value chain.

Launch services

Many experts believe that launch costs should be the main target for cost reductions in large LEO constellations, and owners will certainly want to cut them. Launch providers will have to pull every cost-reduction lever available. In addition to reducing the cost of materials and manufacturing, they should lower their operating costs—for instance, by maximizing savings from reusability.

Ground equipment

The big one are the gateway antennas to convert radio frequencies to internet protocol. For GEO Satellite communications these cost typically $1-2 million each and while for the LEO Gateways the power demand is less, there’s still a lot of costs to reduce. Modular antenna designs could help, since they would enable equally critical cost reductions in user-equipment antennas, but other efficiencies will be required.

End User equipment

To unlock the consumer market—the one with the most potential—the cost of Electronic Steerable Antennas (ESAs) antennas must drop dramatically. While some companies have recently claimed breakthrough reductions in manufacturing costs, none has yet brought a low-cost design to market, nor have any produced ESAs at scale. Companies that do create less expensive ESA concepts will have to preserve their quality: for instance, ESAs will still need to provide high data rates, reliable beam steering, smooth satellite handoff, and other features that ensure a good customer experience.

How do we manage the volumes in space?

And so, we come back to all those thousands of satellites in Low Earth Orbit.

NASA is recommending in a recent report that these companies make sure their future satellites are taken out of orbit as soon as they complete their missions.

Currently, there are around 4,000 intact spacecraft (we’ll ignore the small ones) living in orbit around Earth, of which only 1,800 are operational!

If all these constellations are successfully launched around the same time, the number of operational satellites in orbit would quadruple, raising the risk of catastrophic and cascading satellite collisions. 

The advice: for every 100 satellites, 99 need to be de-orbited as soon as their missions are over, typically within five years of it ending. That entails lowering the altitude of the satellite so that it quickly succumbs to Earth’s gravity and burns up during the descent through our planet’s atmosphere. If this doesn’t happen, then the population of spacecraft in low Earth orbit starts to grow significantly over the years.

The more objects in orbit, the higher the chances are that spacecraft will have unplanned crashes. For instance, the NASA team tested out what would happen if only 90 percent of these large constellations were de-orbited on time. In that situation, the number of collisions would be about 260 over the next 200 years. But if 99 percent are taken down in time, then only 34 crashes would happen in the same time period. That’s just slightly higher than the risk is now.

Other recommendations include the hardening of satellites as the risk of micro-meteoroids impacting the satellite prior to de-orbiting can destroy the satellite, creating the same debris risk.

The recommends that satellites in this mega constellations will need to be built in such a way that the probability they might explode is less than one in 1,000.

Next time around, let's explore what more needs to be done to mitigate the space collision risk. Keep in mind the aviation sector operates in our skies with just under 10000 aircraft in the air at any one time in a highly controlled environment. With 50000 satellites in space over the coming years, with less control it's something we need to be acting on today!

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