50% of current Drone Manufacturers will crash and burn by the end of 2017
Craig Davidenko å…‹é›·æ ¼
President of Business Development at VTOL AEROSPACE? - UAV SYSTEMS Principal Urban Air Mobilities?
On a recent trip to Shenzhen China, "The Drone Capital" of the world, I had exclusive access to witness how "drones" are developed from concept to final product. At Hi-Tech Park in Shenzhen there were at least a dozen drone companies within walking distance to each other.... and for the most part everybody knew of one another.
At the same time these drone companies thought that they were developing something secret from one another all they were doing is building the same "widget". The "Venture Capital Money" that these companies are operating on seems endless to those closely involved, most companies are waiting for second and 3rd rounds. Most of the 1st VC rounds were spent on "R&D" for software and hardware, but it turns out that most are all using the same software, so the difference is in buying power. If one company can buy at a larger quantity then they get the software cheaper thus being able to sell their final product cheaper. The BIG problem was that they all forgot about the most important component.
They forgot to save a little money for "R&D" (Research and Development) on how they were going to MARKET their product. Enter the 2nd round of VC$.... The Venture Capital Companies are giving millions to these start-ups and most of them have no marketing plan or budget, they all think that Alibaba will miraculously sell their products!!!
So now we are all witnessing the few dominant leaders who have the buying power and the marketing plans in place crush their incompetent competition. But whose fault is it?
The investors!!!! They dumped a pile of cash on the technology gold rush of "Drones"! How does this still happen in the year 2016? Answer: Executive boards making decisions from "glass offices" way above the clouds and the thought that R & D was only earmarked for software and hardware; never mind how we're going to sell our widget! - Many companies right now are trying to shift focus on a niche within the drone market and are finally figuring out that they have been blind sided by simple ignorance. Some of these "EGGS" (Drone Manufacturers) will overcome their mistakes and land softly but most will land hard and crash!
Small Unmanned Systems Program Analyst and Small Unmanned System Remote Pilot at ABSI Defense
8 å¹´Christopher Sacco
Engineer, Innovator, & Author. Inspired to create kids STEAM books like "Exploring Smart Cities for Kids,""Goodnight Moon Base"
8 å¹´Looks like your prediction is ahead of schedule as of March 2017. At least for US-based drone companies. It's a rough sky out here...
Engineering Leader | Software Engineer | Startup Founder | Advisor
8 å¹´Not sure what you mean by they are all using the same software?
Principal Architect, Owner, Lyle Architects
8 å¹´This is a great article and dialogue in the comments. I think the UAV industry is maturing not dying out at all. There are imposters everywhere in all business sectors. I hope soon UAV folks will start rubbing elbows with the other related industries and stop pretending this is just an aviation industry, or just a tech industry. It is neither. It is much more complex to operate in the space next to the ground below 500 ft agl. than traditional airspace while collecting and transmitting data. The next phase in the UAV industry will come via collaboration with the various application industries so its time to stop protecting the sandbox you play in. Its going to be a crowded place full of imposters so might as well make some friends and start sifting through the BS. UAVs are 'all grown up' now.