5 Ways to Surf the Next Recession Wave

The economy is hot.

Hot, but not overheated. Inflation is low. Consecutive quarters of growth are rolling toward an all-time high. Unemployment is lower than just about any time, ever. Everything is humming along, well-stimulated by tax cuts, cautiously corrective Federal Reserve fiscal policy, and good old consumer confidence.

But with every wave of expansion, history shows that there must be contraction. What goes up, must come down; the only real variables are how much contraction and for how long.

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the end of the Great Recession. Ten years ago, the country had experienced an economic contraction so severe that entire industries were upended, and the emerging generation began to question everything they had been taught about finding success and fulfillment in adulthood.

The economic pendulum continues to swing. An economy that seems too good to be true is overdue for a shake-up. It may sound ominous, but a wave of disruption is coming. If you are proactive in taking steps to disrupt yourself, you do not need to fear the wave—you can ride it.

With any luck, the next recession won’t be as bad as the last one—most aren’t—but there are still lessons to be learned for those who would like to disrupt themselves. If you are considering disrupting your professional life and jumping to a new learning curve, below are the 5 ways you can surf the next recession wave (and the wave is building!):

1.    Time Your Jump

In July, 2.4 percent of the U.S. workforce (3.58 million people) voluntarily left their jobs. That’s a lot of personal disruption, more than at any time since 2001. With more jobs available than there are qualified candidates to fill them, workers are on the move to greener pastures—and pretty likely to find them. But can this moment last? No one can predict when the contraction will begin, so don’t leave a good job until you have another one in place. If you haven’t jumped already, or are unsure of your disruptive plans, it may be wise to consider waiting to make a big change until after the next recession has come and gone.

2.    Calculate Your Risk

Remember that job changes are often attended by other major life changes. Will making a leap require a relocation? Will you need to see and/or buy a house? Will there be a need for maternity or family leave in the near future, and will these be better accommodated in the current job or a new one? These and other variables need to be part of the calculation when considering a job change, especially closer to, or even during, a recession.

3.    Become a Historian

The job market is in a state of continual evolution, with new and changing technologies both creating and destroying opportunities. Study what happened in various job sectors during the last recession; some types of job went away and haven’t returned. Other types of jobs came into being and were in high demand when the economy started growing again. The gig economy became an option for workers and has continued to grow during the expansion. It may really boom in the next recession. It’s hard to know for certain what the future of work will look like, but, especially if an economic downturn is near, you want to avoid professions and sectors that are likely to be hard hit and maybe even crushed for good. Study up.

4.    Leverage Your Learning

Speaking of study, going back to school is always an option, especially for younger workers. When the labor market contracts jobs become scarce, and job qualification and experience requirements are commensurately amped up, often locking out entry-level employees. This is also a place for good research, however. The last recession saw many young workers stay in school, or return to school, but often with a price tag that has contributed to a student loan debt crisis of $1.5 trillion, give or take a couple dollars. If additional education is in order, look for non-conventional paths to take that will avoid excessive financial encumbrance—a burden that will affect career options for years to come. On-line options for certifications and degrees are proliferating. Many remunerative professions do not require four-year degrees, much less a graduate school degree. Evaluate how much the additional education you seek will open doors for you and add to your earning power, and make sure the debt you accrue is in line with that.

In many cases, stepping back and accepting a job with lower compensation but which offers the opportunity to gain a useful skill may be a better option than additional education. A job step-back can be, at any time, an accelerant of personal disruption and, as with a sling-shot, the pullback can create energy that is prelude to an accelerated leap forward. Riding out a recession in a job that some may think of as “under-employment,” if it provides opportunities for learning and growth, may be exactly the right springboard for a big leap once the economy begins to grow again.

5.    Become a big E or little E

Finally, think entrepreneurship. Being ready to rumble when the economy starts to grow is far more advantageous than trying to find your niche midway through an expansion (whether you are reinventing yourself internally (little e) or starting a new venture (big E)), when many other players are trying to get a piece of the action. Markets are won, and real money is made, by those who are poised to take advantage of an expanding economy from its first day. The data is a mixed bag; workers who can’t find jobs and so launch into entrepreneurship during a recession can be very successful. But of course, many will fail during challenging economic times as well. Those that survive the hard times, however, find themselves on a playing field where a lot of the competition has been cleared away.

Whether you’re thinking of a job change now, while the economy is still going strong, looking to recession-proof your career, or thinking about potential opportunities after the next downturn is over, personal disruption is the springboard to the career path of your dreams. Having a strategy, for boom times and bust, can help bring those dreams to fruition as the economy rolls along through its inevitable ups and downs. Strategies can be upended by circumstance, but in a disrupt-or-be-disrupted world, having no strategy at all is simply a default plan to be at the mercy of whatever happens next.

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Whitney Johnson is an executive coach, speaker, and innovation thinker recently named an influencer to watch by LinkedIn. She is the author of the bestselling Build an A-Team from Harvard Business Press and the critically acclaimed Disrupt Yourself. You can download the first chapter of Build an A Team here.