5 Tips for Dune (doing) your Forecast

Last December I had the opportunity to ride with one of Dubai’s top motocross riders. It was a beautiful day and we rode past camels, through valleys known as wadis and over hundreds of dunes. All I kept thinking was — “this is a perfect macho day.”

Ok, confession time: I was a little nervous when we started. I had never ridden in thick sand like what you find in Dubai. My desert experience was limited to California and the Mexican Baja. But, soon I learned that speed was the key.  As I increased my speed, the motorcycle was easier to control. It glided over the sand. The more I followed the guide, the more my confidence grew. I was great! Gatorade or Old Spice could have used me in one of their commercials!

I heard the voice of the guide yelling from the top of the dune, “I did that on purpose. I wanted you to learn a valuable lesson..."

As I came up a large 20-foot dune, I noticed that the guide had stopped exactly on the top. He appeared to be resting. I increased my speed to show him how good I was. Just as the motorcycle came up over the top, I noticed that the backside of the dune dropped by 75–100 feet and was steeper than the front.  Oh noooooo! 

I made it down the first 20 feet but then, with all of my weight leaning forward, the front tire dug into the sand and I went over the handlebars. The bike flipped over and landed next to me. My dreams of Gatorade and Old Spice commercials ended in a flash as I lay there trying to figure out if anything was broken. 

Discovering that I would live, I heard the voice of the guide yelling from the top of the dune, “I did that on purpose. I wanted you to learn a valuable lesson: Never ride recklessly over a horizon where you can’t see the other side!”

I moaned back, “You couldn't have just told me?”

Well, I did learn my lesson. After helping me get the bike upright and dusting the sand out of my helmet we were off. Only this time, I crossed the dunes laterally and made sure I knew what the other side looked like. We rode all the way to the border of Oman and back. It was a memorable day. 

The lesson I learned (the hard way) in Dubai has stuck in my head for the last few months. “Never ride recklessly over a horizon where you can’t see the other side.” I muse that working in business is a lot like riding in the desert. There are plenty of ups and downs. Most of us assume the back of a cycle is the same as the front. How many times have we been unprepared for a downturn or slowdown simply because we did not forecast properly? 

So, I asked the best revenue leader I know, Gautam Bhandari, to give us 5 tips on forecasting:

1. A forecast is not a goal; it is the basis for formulating a strategy. 

2. A good forecast helps you anticipate what’s lying ahead. 

3. Forecasting needs to be a strategic exercise where man and machine come together to have a positive impact on results.

4. What is required for good forecasts?

• Alignment between machine-generated insights and human intelligence
• Good forecasting requires continual improvement
• Truly knowing yourself and your customers

5. Most leaders would choose getting a root canal over completing a forecast. And yet, most organizations rely heavily on the forecasts to make decisions on everything from people to processes and performance.

So – there you have it: Advice from the expert. 

From me — remember that forecasting does not simply sit with the revenue management department. All senior leaders must be involved. The more feedback, the more accurate your forecast … and the less chance you’ll be pitched over the handlebars with your dreams of a Gatorade sponsorship crushed in the process. Enjoy the ride, but ride safe!   

Join me and other industry insiders on LinkedIn at Overheard@Marriott