5 Reasons ChatGPT Will Not Beat Google

There has been a lot of speculation lately about the possibility that ChatGPT will destroy Google’s business. I humbly offer the following five reasons Google will be able to successfully defend itself against a GPT invasion.

Google is no Lycos.?

When Google displaced Lycos, Excite and several other search engines, all these competitors were essentially “monkeys” and Google eventually emerged as the “gorilla” of the clan. Today is a different story. Google is the gorilla, and ChatGPT is the monkey. Have you ever seen a gorilla fight a monkey? It’s not pretty. Don’t underestimate the amount of money, talent and time it would take for ChatGPT to penetrate Google‘s installed base.

Experience rules.?

Google is so ubiquitous it is now a verb we all use. Collectively, we have 20+ years of solid hands-on experience searching with Google. It’s unlikely all of that will be replaced overnight by a very different process in which users are required to ask a question or provide a prompt. The simplicity of search in Google, which instantly generates a list of relevant content along with potential providers and sellers, is a huge plus for Google. It will take an enormous effort for ChatGPT to create an equivalent experience.

Mobile matters.?

Google is the de facto search engine not only for desktop users but also on mobile. When we search the Internet we use a browser, and that browser almost always defaults to Google as the preferred search engine. For ChatGPT, penetrating that user experience and that ingrained workflow will be very hard. It would likely take several years for it to even come close. Also, ChatGPT is a singular experience and doesn’t have the network effect of a Facebook or Instagram.

Bounce and pounce.?

The best thing for Google to do is to wait and let users become bored with the novelty of the current ChatGPT experience. At this point, ChatGPT is essentially a toy. It is not yet a tool with a clear purpose. Therefore, it’s in Google‘s best interest not to pursue this first mover and not try to compete with a product that offers a poor user experience. Google will wait on the sideline, perfect their own technology and, when the product is ready, launch to its user base. Think about Apple Music versus Spotify. The iPhone only has only about quarter of the mobile market, but for Apple device users Apple Music is the dominant music provider, not Spotify.?

Sparrow is the arrow.?

Finally, Google search will not lose out to ChatGPT because Google has its own proprietary technology that is carefully protected. By contrast, OpenAI has adopted an open, public model. No one really owns its technology. That means Google is likely learning from OpenAI. Google technology will continue to improve because it will be observing and learning from the ChatGPT experience. While it’s true that Microsoft has an edge when it comes to integrating ChatGPT, Google retains an advantage over the long run based on the enormity of its search user base and its own AI technology. Google will not only integrate AI into search, but it will also integrate AI into multiple other applications.?

Therefore?

That’s why the speculation about Google search losing out to ChatGPT is premature, and why that outcome is very unlikely in the long run. However, it will be absolutely fascinating to see how these two competing technologies evolve over the next decade. The dynamic seems very similar to the way competition between the Android and Apple operating systems evolved over the years. Apple deployed a captive device strategy in building its OS, creating a broad set of applications to deepen its user experience. Android OS, on the other hand, was provided to multiple device manufacturers. Much like Apple, Google will incorporate its AI technology into in its own applications first to maintain its edge. It has a huge installed base, and therefore it can afford to do so. Microsoft, on the other hand, will license OpenAI technology to a broad range of other software developers. Therefore, it’s very likely we will see two business models in an orthogonal relationship to each other, and those two approaches to application AI will dominate the global market.