5 Predictions for 2024

While my last round of predictions was only partially correct, practice makes perfect. Here is my set of five new predictions for 2024.

1. The great cloud debate will rage on.

In the rush to move everything on the cloud, many companies employed a lift and shift strategy. This resulted in large cloud bills with small to no improvements in performance. The real value of the cloud comes from adopting a cloud-native architecture, but this can feel like an impossible undertaking. In addition, it requires skill and experience to design these architectures which can lead to costly missteps.

In 2023 we have heard some prominent voices advocate for moving away from the cloud. They shut down their virtual servers and moved back to physical hardware and shared the massive cost savings with the tech community.

At the same time, in a push towards always adopting the newest and shiniest technology, some developers are misusing cloud offerings resulting in a terrible experience. A great example is the viral prime video article that made waves by switching from AWS Step Functions and serverless to more traditional servers. (You can watch my take in this video)

In 2024 this debate will get even louder. Companies will brag about massive cost savings from moving away from the cloud, how microservices are not a silver bullet and therefore useless, and that the cloud in general was a mistake. This will go up against those with successful digital transformations trying to explain the numerous benefits of a cloud-native architecture.

The reality is that there is no perfect answer. Where you host depends on your architecture, size, and goals. What we need is more education and content from those highly experienced in this space, but I predict we will instead get attention-grabbing headlines.

2. Multimodal AI

2023 was dominated by news around LLMs (Large Language Models). These LLMs were made accessible to everyone through traditional chat interfaces. Multimodal AI will break this mold by accepting varied data types (images, text, speech, data) as input and providing answers in multiple formats depending on the context.

Google’s Gemini demo was faked showing that this technology doesn’t exist yet, but big companies are betting on this being the next phase of AI.

I’m not sure if 2024 will be the breakout year for Multimodal AI, but we should see glimmers of functionality and exciting new demos.

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3. Growth of low and no-code solutions

Low-code and no-code continue to promise the idea of building software without the help of developers. Currently, they can handle basic tasks and have a place in corporate software. In 2024 I see them becoming more popular in regards to website design and management.

The frontend development space continues to evolve rapidly with new frameworks and techniques; however, many companies and developers have coalesced around ReactJS. Love it or hate it, ReactJS is now the dominant player. This opens the opportunity for business tooling which allows non-technical users to build React pages.

In the early days of the web, all HTML was coded by hand. Then we started to see tools and CMS offerings with integrated WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get) editors. The same thing is now happening in the SPA (Single-Page Application) space with no-code tools that let you drag & drop as well as configure React components.

Expect developers to continue coding the individual react components and handling the difficult or interesting functionality, but typical “boring” pages will move to editors. This will have three major impacts:

1. It will put some control back in the hands of writers, editors, and marketing empowering them to update and modify websites more often.
2. It will take pressure off developers, allowing the best developers to focus on more interesting problems, but potentially decreasing job opportunities for new React developers, especially those with little to no experience.
3. TypeScript + React will be another step closer to becoming the de facto standard for front ends.

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4. Composable will struggle under its success.

Composable commerce and composable architecture have exploded in the past few years. Early adopters have seen success in building bespoke experiences faster and enjoy greater resilience, uptime, and flexibility.

Now companies are scrambling to both understand composable and quickly adopt the approach. The problem is that demand outpaces the number of experienced architects and developers. In addition, there is a lack of educational content and reference materials to lean on. Hoping to capitalize on this trend, agencies are overselling their capabilities in the hope they can learn on the job. This has resulted in longer timelines and in some cases failed projects.

Horror stories around multi-year projects will scare people off and create a backlash in 2024. Composable brings so many benefits it will survive this phase, but it is important for any company taking on a composable project to do their due diligence. Make sure they find expert help from companies who have a track record of success and preferably have been in the composable space for years. Given the demand, this may mean paying a premium for experienced developers and architects, but that is much better than the alternative.

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5. The push for internet control will gain momentum.

Gone are the days of the internet’s wild west, where people hosted their own websites, and individuals could be highly impactful on the web. Huge companies have already carved out portions of the internet for themselves, leaving little chance for newcomers to break into those sectors.

In addition, governments have begun exerting control over how we access the world wide web. China famously has their great firewall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Firewall). The EU continues to pass new laws on advertising, storing data, and basic functionality like cookies. Recently my home state of North Carolina passed a law regarding adult content, following steps with Montana and others. This has resulted in Pornhub and other websites blocking any IPs originating in those states.

The internet has become an integral part of our lives and a major source of revenue. Expect more companies and governments to exert control over this space. While I see pushback in things like the Fediverse, it does not seem to be gaining traction fast enough.