5 For Friday - static noise, economists walk into a bar, scary non-AI things, more than a t-shirt

Here we are at another bi-weekly 5 For Friday posting. It’s been unusually busy the last few weeks as I am working on research, meeting with boards and executives, and preparing for multi-company events I am putting together. It has also been unusually cold and warm in Atlanta, which is disconcerting. This does make for cloudy and beautiful skies. I hope you enjoy the photo and my post. As always, while I reference research from my work, my colleagues and others I learn from, the interpretations and opinions – and especially the humor - are my own and not intended to represent any company or other individual. Below are 5 items I thought might be of interest.

1. Pay attention to the static noise. Those of us who have been in the governance realm long enough to go from brunette to blond have learned to fine tune our antennae (aka, antennas) to pick up the interesting signals. In our newly published Center for Board Matters 2024 proxy season preview my colleague Jamie Carroll Smith and her team have found an interesting frequency that is somewhat discordant. Generally, business model resilience and operational refresh, including new workforce strategies, are areas institutional investors expect leaders to prioritize in the current dynamic business environment. In terms of specific topics, talent agenda and climate change ranked highest. Here’s where the scratchy sounds come in. Our survey and research on ?2024 board priorities found directors ranked these same topics among the lowest in terms of priorities. Their overall focus was on economic conditions and capital. There are implications in the static noise - questions boards may not be asking that they should about ‘horizon creep’ (I’m not sure if that’s a thing, but I’m going to make it a thing).

2. Two economists walk into a bar. “In economics, if you don’t like the forecast, change the dates and try again.” That was probably my favorite quote of the last couple weeks, said by one of the economists at the Atlanta NACD chapter’s stellar program this week. My non-attribution is deliberate. The speakers were Carl Tannenbaum and Dennis Lockhart . Both were insightful, knowledgeable and seasoned - only one was ‘Netflix special’ funny. Given Dennis is the former President of the Atlanta Fed, I will give you one guess as to who has a one-man show in his future. This, by the way, is a compliment to both these gentlemen, because no one wants a funny Fed president. No one. It was an absolute pleasure to see so many attending, including: Kelly Barrett , Chloe Barzey , Laura Miller , Edwina Payne, NACD.DC , Regenia R. Sanders , Marina Finnegan , Lenora Kopkin . My key takeaways (again, I refrain from attributing to individuals):

o?? The Fed is unlikely to suddenly kick up its heels and will remain cautious for the next few months, looking for sustained decrease in inflation – and we now get to enjoy the phrase “immaculate disinflation”

o?? US Labor markets remain stronger than the headlines might suggest but there is a rebalancing – by the way, return to office has hit its peak

o?? China’s current struggles are not just China’s problem. It behooves anyone interested in global markets to understand better their current domestic dynamics.

o?? Use the tools we have access to, like Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow – a “nowcast” - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

o?? I asked the speakers what boards should be asking management teams, they spoke pretty quickly but the ones I captured included: [if anyone else has ones they said that I missed please post in comments]

§? How resilient are we? How resilient are we if there are policy changes, such as consumer protection, privacy? Are we challenging the working assumptions? How are we keeping track of trigger points? Are geopolitical strategies clearly articulated in these dynamic times?

3. AI is not the only scary thing. In a few different discussions, including NACD Atlanta, the question has come up about leading thinkers who have useful ways to distill broad trends/risks. I have long been a fan of Ian Bremmer for his structured, historical approach. I know I was not the only one taking rapid notes during his keynote at the NACD Summit in October (or heading to the bar immediately afterwards at 10:30am). This video of his take on the 10 biggest world threats of 2024 is to the point - Ian Bremmer on Big Think.

4. Observations and thoughts from the last few weeks of conversations with executives and directors as I have been shifting from cyber to more AI and innovation while working on our research on this topic:

o?? There is a gap the size of a large mobile home between directors who are confident their companies have solved the data integrity and infrastructure issue and those who are confident their companies have not solved it – interestingly so far this is not clustered by industry, company size or former executive role (although former CIOs tend to be more in the skeptic category)

o?? AI/GenAI risk vs. opportunity is not so much a pendulum swinging as a metronome ticking. For those of us who had to practice piano with a metronome ticking away madly, we recall the incessant tik-tok back and forth. After several rapid conversations with directors back to back about AI, that’s a bit how it felt, instead of a more gentle back and forth sway of a pendulum. There seems to be a natural personal bias where individuals are more inclined to look at the opportunities vs. those looking at the risks and both types quickly skip over the other side. Of course as the complexities of the issues develop and directors continue to educate themselves, I suspect the pace will mellow.

o?? Among directors, there is also a bifurcation of those who think of AI as overblown hype and those see it as changing everything in the next few years. There is a generational angle as well. I have been brainstorming with one of my favorite colleagues, Marcie Merriman , as we are collaborating right now. Marcie’s work on emerging generations has highlighted that boomers and Gen Z are on the same page in being skeptics about AI. Meanwhile Gen X and millennials are the ones actually embracing it.

5. More than a t-shirt. A good friend said to me recently, “I want people to think of Black History Month as more than a t-shirt moment.” So here’s to more than t-shirts. In a recent NACD blog post, my colleague Kris Pederson offered the reminder that with customers and employees becoming more diverse, companies need leaders at the highest levels who both set the tone and represent their perspectives. This continues to be a key value driver that gets lost in the noise. You can read about other value drivers in Kris’ full blog at: https://www.nacdonline.org/all-governance/governance-resources/directorship-magazine/online-exclusives/2024/february/board-diversity-progress-potential-2024/