5 Facts That Explain Nigeria’s Boko Haram
Every week for TIME, I look at the data behind emerging geopolitical trends. Today: the Nigerian terrorist organization Boko Haram. It made global headlines last year for a mass kidnapping of Nigerian schoolgirls, but it hasn’t stopped since then… Below, an abbreviated look at my analysis in TIME.
1. Shocking Numbers in the News: On January 3, Boko Haram began an assault on the town of Baga in Nigeria’s restive northeast. Estimates of the death toll ranged from hundreds to more than 2,000 people.
2. Crumbling approval: On the back of his successful handling of the Ebola crisis, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s approval ratings vaulted to an all-time high 74% in September. By December, this number had fallen to 55%, and in the Northeast, Boko Haram’s stronghold, his approval fell 23 points that month.
3. Boko Haram vs. Ebola: The West African Ebola outbreak has killed roughly 8,400 people so far. That’s by far the biggest Ebola outbreak ever, yet the Council on Foreign Relations has compiled data that links 10,340 violent deaths between November 2013 and November 2014 to Boko Haram-related violence.
4. The government’s energy headache: A steep fall in oil prices—down more than 50% since June—is bad news for a country that relies on crude for 95% of export revenue and 75% of government revenue.
5. A blind eye: Less than 24 hours after the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris, President Jonathan publicly declared it a “dastardly terrorist attack.” Yet nine days after the violence in Baga began, Jonathan had not publicly acknowledged that the attacks had even happened.
Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, global research professor at New York University and foreign affairs columnist at TIME. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn.
Photo credit: Stephen Melkisethian / Flickr
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9 年Thank you for these. A major variable not listed is President Jonathan's reluctance, or outright refusal, to allow any significant international intervention where Boko Haram is concerned. One cannot help wondering about the motive behind maintaining such a position in the face of mass kidnappings and virtually unchallenged massacres.
Imaging and Optical Instrumentation / Axiom Optics
9 年I agree with Jomomoh, this article explains nothing about Boko Haram, but lists 5 problems in Nigeria. How is it that an organization that kills children can gain a foothold in Nigeria?
Resident Regional Rep(Asia S.E/W.AFRICA) at Globus Financial Services, LLC.Medical Sales Specialist.
9 年NIGERIA’S 5IVE PROBLEMS ONLY. 1-Leadership failure 2-Corruption 3-Leadership failure 4-Leadership failure 5-Leadership failure.
Resident Regional Rep(Asia S.E/W.AFRICA) at Globus Financial Services, LLC.Medical Sales Specialist.
9 年FROM FEBUHARI COMING SOON OUT OF NIGERIA.......... JULIUS CEASER & THE MASTERY OF SELF? IN 2015 NIGERIA? WAS CEASER AMBITIOUS? And in the year of our Lord 2015, there arose a world celebration thus. In the Country of Nigeria in the West of Africa “Corrubration” or celebration of corruption had become a national norm. ‘Yet, many Nigerians do not even have the opportunity to be corrupt nor are they willing to be corrupted. There are many Nigerians who have worked at top positions and walked away from corruption. Buhari is the shining example. Declaring his asset on Facebook, he stated: “I have at least one million naira (about $5,000USD)in my bank, having paid N5.5 million to pick my form from my party. I have around 150 cattle because I am never comfortable without cows. I have a house each in Kaduna, Kano, and Daura which I borrowed money to build. I never had a foreign account since I finished my courses in the USA, India and the UK. I never owned any property outside Nigeria. Never.” He does not even have property in the choice cities of Abuja and Lagos. Can the new fact prompt a movement against corruption in politics, zero tolerance for corruption? Can it ignite a reversal of the perception that Nigerians are all corrupt? Changing norms will take a long time, but let real change begin. Corruption has hobbled the country for too long. For a former president and someone who was in charge of petroleum and petroleum funds – the jewels in the crown of the country ……..– Buhari has shown a mastery of self, and demonstration of incorruptibility. Look around you, there are still many honest, upright and incorruptible Nigerians. Buhari has confirmed the fact. I do know many people who have held important offices and who have escaped the tar brush of corruption. Maybe a new Nigeria will emerge – an end to “corrubration”’. Adapted from ‘Buhari: Beyond 2015 Elections- An End to Corrubration By Bunmi Makinwa’ ‘Of what meat is this our Caesar fed?’ In the process leading to the plot against the Roman leader, Julius Caesar, Cassius, the arrowhead of the conspiracy, was struggling to convince Brutus, Caesar’s bosom friend, to join the plot. In one meeting, both of them excursed into Caesar’s stupendous rise to fame and strength and suddenly Cassius wondered; ‘Of what meat is this our Caesar fed?’ He enumerated the frailty of Caesar and his weaknesses, just like those of any average Roman and wondered how the same Caesar had grown so powerful as to bestraddle Rome like a Colossus while he and other Romans must stoop to pass beneath his giant frame. Buhari campaigns in Bayelsa (Jan. 2015) Buhari has connection with Nigerian people through the deliberate acts he did while in previous public offices. This is the meat our Buhari is fed with. This is the sustainer to his raging candidacy, the driver to his immense acceptability, even with the desperate efforts of those ran ragged by the prospects of his second coming to power. Adapted from Peter Claver Oparah. Ikeja, Lagos.