5 Bullet Friday...The Rate Drop Isn't What You Think ??

Welcome back Sudbury! ??

Take a peak at the numbers from the last few weeks!

Here are my 5 takeaways this week:

??We saw weekly sales match the listings for this week, both up slightly over the week before but the big shift happened with total active listings increasing. What happened here? It was because we had 33 houses that were pending sales the week before that fed into the 41 firm sales this week, and only a total of 18 houses were pending this week. That’s a pretty significant shift, and one reason that we’ve seen a slow-down in the market recently.?If all those 33 pending deals went firm (not likely 100% of them), that would mean there was only 8 other homes that sold with a short conditional period or no conditions this week. It's important to remember that on those houses that went from conditional to sold, the work and the busy feeling in the marketplace (showings, offers etc…) likely happened early October; when I made a comment that the market which was sneaky busy at the time seemed like it was running out of speed. ?

??This week the federal government made changes to the immigration policy; a plan that will pause population growth.?This plan for the first time ever also addresses pauses for temporary workers, specifically students as well as permanent residences.?This will have a pretty significant affect on the entire Canadian economy, as one of the reason we have been expanding our GDP is because we had more people coming into the country to buy goods and services.? Even with that, we were only slightly expanding our total GDP, and on a per/population basis we're decreasing. In theory, this should shift and slow down the housing market, but the shift that I think we will see in Sudbury is a continued lack of affordability in the GTA will increase the inter-province immigration of people who moved to Canada a few years ago and look to make the move North to find a better cost of living and quality of life.?I showed houses to a few new buyers who were in this exact position this week; they have been settled in Canada for a few years in the GTA, but it's too expensive to buy down there so they are choosing to make the move north.?I see this policy being effective at helping control housing prices on a National level, but I think we will see a steady flow of people still coming up north even despite the new immigration policy.

??The big announcement this week that had every Realtor running to TikTok and Instagram to post was the Bank of Canada announcement for their .5% cut.?My social media was full of Realtors telling everyone to buy now before you miss your chance with the lower rates.?I can’t stand this type of posting, and I do believe that rates are going to be lower in the future, and likely will give confidence to the marketplace especially as we get into the spring of next year; but I don’t believe its the kind of buying window that you need to act now or miss your chance.?Most cautious buyers opt for a fixed rate, and these rates are tied to the bond market, and guess what happened that same day that all those Realtors were posting about the rates going down? The bond market actually went up. Most of the price reductions and Bank of Canada decreases have been priced into the market already. Big banks had the foresight to adjust their lending based on these announcements coming down the pipeline.?Remember that the BoC is doing these reductions as they see the writing on the wall that the Canadian consumer is hurting and they are trying to spur the economy.?Long term we will see the cut in rates spur the market, but consumers are still sitting on the sidelines with the hopes of future rate cuts or cheaper homes (the latter I don’t think is going to happen). ?

??Sudbury has a massive issue with sewer pipes collapsing because of old infrastructure and growth like tree roots causing issues. If you have this issue at your home, the first thing that will happen is a plumber will scope the line with a camera and will mark where the issue is on your property.?Remember the City of Sudbury owns the first few feet of your yard (usually look for the water meter shut-off as a good indication of where your property begins), or you can also pace out 33ft from the centre of the road (1/2 a chain for those who use the old metes and bounds measuring system). If the blockage occurs on your property, it's your responsibility to dig it up and get it fixed, an issue that can be extremely costly and labour intensive. If it's on the city’s property, they will usually look after the fix on their dime.?If you are concerned about this and looking for an insurance policy to cover you if you come across this issue, check out?this link here, as home insurance typically will not cover this type of repair on your property.?This is also a recommendation to add a camera sewer line inspection to your home inspection if it is an option at all, as most of Sudbury’s sewer line infrastructure is old and old pipes eventually deteriorate. Some neighbourhoods are worse than others. Hopefully you're dealing with a local agent who knows the areas well and can give you insight to the home and the neighbourhood you're looking at.?

??There was a big change this week that is going to affect the #1 website for Real Estate in Canada: Realtor.ca.?There was a big vote from all the real estate boards across the country this week that they voted to create a separate standalone for-profit company that can manage realtor.ca. What does that mean for consumers? Basically the site kinda-sucks.?If you are in Southern Ontario, most buyers and sellers are using alternatives like HouseSigma as they want more functionality and a better user experience. In the US, they are flocking to sites like Zillow.?The company that runs the website (Canadian Real Estate Association) is broke, and doesn’t have the extra money to invest in the website to make it stand up to the competition, thus the shift to the for-profit company. They will have the ability to innovate and invest in a better site not on the backs of Realtors' annual dues but with other options for revenue streams (ads, partnerships).?What does it mean for agents? Likely there will be tiers to the website coming out in the future, and those agents who are able to invest in their business will see more visibility and functionality to the site.? Those agents who are not investing in their business and their listings will likely stay status quo.?All things considered, I was part of the original group that was talking about this change 10 years ago, so I’m in favour of seeing the shift.?We need to offer the customer the best website experience or the competition will take that place. ?

Have a great week Sudbury, we’ll see you next week!