The 4th conflict on Europe's border: some international context of the attack on Israel

The 4th conflict on Europe's border: some international context of the attack on Israel


?? Europe, which has downgraded itself to the pacifist camp in terms of military spending for decades, now faces four armed conflicts on its borders:? the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the situation between Kosovo and Serbia (where additional British peacekeepers have just arrived, and add Milorad Dodik's shenanigans on top of it in Banja Luka), the violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, and finally the clash between Israel and Hamas militants. Add to that the migration situation and political instability in North Africa, the militarization of the high seas (attack on undersea cables and pipelines, like the one between Finland and Estonia, threats to maritime supply chain security and outstanding issues in port infrastructure ownership, just to name a few), and it really seems like the geographical borders of Europe are under pressure from all directions.

?? Multi-front tension. On the Russian-Ukrainian front, Moscow has been trying for a year and a half to increase its chances by tying up Western resources in other areas. This is what the Black Sea grain diplomacy was all about, trying to pit African countries against Europe, saying it was the EU's fault (and not the war's) that exports were not taking place. This is what oil price manipulation is all about when it’s successful, right now it might be ramped up for the US elections, if OPEC+ so carries it through. Nicaragua in Central America is another prime example of Russian bandwagoning, where Moscow has been backing the new dictator since 2016 and thus has been granted military access to the country's ports, among other things. The list goes on with the space race, diesel exports bans, fertilizer "diplomacy" or even inciting tension in the Balkans. The mystery of who really lit the fuse in the Hamas-Israel conflict is a question of the next few weeks.

???? More Russian interference, than desired; but less, than feared. The Saturday dawn raid launched on Israel from the Gaza Strip certainly comes handy for Moscow. Make no mistake, I don't want to fall into the Cold War mistake of seeing Russian agents everywhere. The world is turning, things are happening on their own, sometimes it's enough to woo a local leader, offer material or logistical support, or just open narratives of encouragement. Strategic corruption and real influence operations come later in this line.

  • There is no evidence yet that Russia played a direct hand in the series of coups in sub-Saharan Africa, but they were certainly involved in setting the context: the social tension and violence further fueled by the Wagner group, and the support for warlords or the immediate exploitation of the conflicts only served to exacerbate them.
  • What are the facts on the ground in the case of Hamas regarding Russia? Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has already announced that he was going to Moscow to negotiate with Putin on peace restoration, although he immediately added that the US was not interested anyway. The 88-year-old leader quickly anticipated the narrative. Sergei Lavrov has already prepared what the West will hear in the coming weeks: Moscow is "working for peace", "unlike the US"; and the Ukrainian-Russian border issue can be smudged by the renewed talk of Israeli borders. Already on Sunday, the Secretary General of the Arab League visited Russia. Then the Iraqi PM followed.

???? Powers behind the scenes. All we know for sure is that in the miserable conditions in Gaza, it would be impossible to carry out such a well-organised manoeuvre, without outside help. Hamas's decades long experience should not be underestimated, but it is still an extremely resource weak area cornered to the coastline, where electricity, fuel and all modern equipment enter via Israel. Water and electricity have been cut off, food and petrol are not allowed in, it is a total siege.

???? The Israeli problem is significant. Such a civilian casualty in a conflict within its borders is historic. Already more than 1000 bodies recovered and still counting.

  • How the Israeli intelligence managed to make such a blunder will become the subject of textbook chapters. For now, we can only guess that since 2021, Hamas has deliberately played on the fact that it does not want war because of the economic reconciliation (Israeli employment of Palestinians from Gaza), said another WSJ source. This seems to have really successfully lulled Israeli reflexes. Moreover, the preparation of the operation was reportedly shared in a very tight circle, this time, successfully. Probably mostly offline.
  • The approximately 3,000+ rockets fired were enough to overwhelm the Israeli Iron Dome, and in the meantime they used motorized paragliders to drop enough gunmen to storm the Israeli wall on the Gaza border, capturing four strongholds, penetrating 30 kilometres into Israeli territory, in some places lasting more than 48 hours. The wall, containing 140,000 tonnes of steel and concrete, was breached at 29 points. Bulldozers were used to widen the gaps in the wall and rapid motorised raids continued the terror, with atrocities ranging from rape to child abductions and executions.
  • The expected ground operation in Gaza will not be easy: Hamas combatants are believed to number 30 000, but the population of 2 million won’t be friendly either, and for the moment there is no sign of Egypt opening its doors to them. What’s more, as the only border crossing was hit by two Israeli rockets at least, the Egyptians have closed it down.

  • The hacktivism has already started: politically motivated hackers first appeared on the Palestinian side, the Jerusalem Post site was inaccessible for a longer time, and the anti-missile defense public application also suffered an attack, among many others. Anonymous Sudan and Ghost of Palestine have claimed responsibility. Of 58 known groups, ten are currently pro-Israel.

?? Who will be responsible? According to the editorial opinion of Haaretz–a long-time left-leaning critic of Netanyahu (often just "Bibi") – the disaster that has befallen Israel is the responsibility of one man: Bibi. A unity government has been in the making, hundreds of thousands of reservists are being called up. Gaza has never been a happy place, but now it really is going to be hell on earth. How the Israeli political elite, which has suddenly gone into unity mode, will deal with the political fallout later is a huge question mark, since before this, Netanyahu's judicial reforms stretched the democratic framework and, in no small part, the national security institutions, as reservists and other leaders protested against the reform.

  • Let's not forget: The report examining the surprise of the first Yom Kippur war caused the collapse of Golda Meir's government at the time.

???? The big picture. For the US, it is crucial that the Israeli-Arab reconciliation process launched by the Abraham Accords does not break down. Negotiations with Saudi Arabia are currently underway, following the signing of reconciliation agreements by the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. This may have been the point at which it turned risky for Tehran: if a Riyadh-Tel Aviv axis were to develop, it would pose a major threat to Iranian (and Russian and Chinese) influence in the region. The current operation is particularly effective against this, if not in undermining it definitively, certainly in delaying it.

  • And this is already in no small part about the region's sea passages: the Strait of Hormuz, Suez and the strait next to Djibouti, which provides access to the Red Sea: if the US coalition-building is successful, all of these could be subject to further Western influence, which is Iran's long-standing nightmare.

???? Turkey is the outlier. While the Turks are members of NATO, could the Euro-Atlantic camp count on them in a wider conflict? In Ankara, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) carried out a suicide bombing on 1 October, wounding two policemen, the second bomber was shot dead in time. The Turkish air force thus carried out air strikes against Kurdish targets in Iraq and Syria.

  • The Turks even attempted to take out one of the Syrian Kurdish leaders in the summer with supporting Americans sitting in the convoy vehicles. (The operation failed.)
  • US forces shot down a Turkish drone last week when it ventured too close to their military base. The Pentagon issued a statement on the incident in a relatively conciliatory tone.
  • These developments illustrate that, as with the Swedish enlargement of NATO, Ukrainian-Russian relations, and the Azeri-Armenian conflict, the US and Turkey are on opposing sides even on the Syrian (Kurdish) battlefield, making the work of NATO as an alliance more difficult.


David Takacs

I help CEOs Optimize Body and Business: Shedding Fat, Igniting Success

1 年

The situation in Israel is undoubtedly complex and has far-reaching implications. It's unfortunate to witness the conflict and its consequences. The responsibility for this crisis and its aftermath will be a topic of significant debate and scrutiny.

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Laszlo Bone

Attorney-at-law

1 年

Botond, I very much like your weekly newsletter. Please keep up with the good work!

Amina Eperjesi PCC, ITCA,

Leadership development partner | Systemic Team Coach | Licensed Supervisor (EASC) | Coach Trainer | Vice President at EASC

1 年

I love the newsletter, it helps me stay informed from week to week. Great to see it appearing for English speaking readers as well!

Louisa Slavkova

Co-founder & Managing partner at THE CIVICS Innovation Hub

1 年

We do!

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