The 4M Crisis

(4 elements that converge around the world:

pandemic, financial, economic and social)

Part 1 (Introduction)

History will help us understand and assimilate what is coming and how we must be prepared to face it.

The complexity of this CRISIS, initiated through the COVID 19 virus (CORONOAVIRUS), has generated the convergence of 4 fronts Health, Finance, Economy and Social, causing a DILEMMA in decision-making regarding POLITICS, ECONOMY and HEALTH.

Introduction

We have currently entered the deepest crisis in human history, and it is due to the fact that 4 critical factors have come together: pandemic, finance, economy and social.

It is not common to find crises in history that converge these 4 factors.

1. This crisis is a pandemic, because on March 11, 2020, the OSM declared the coronoavirus as a pandemic, since it spread to more than 114 countries and infected more than 4,000 people, the severity and speed of contagion that causes this virus. In addition to this, it can be seen that the way to fight so that there is no sanitary collapse and high mortality is the use of a strategy of high economic cost, but with high effectiveness, "Suppression", leaving aside "Mitigation" that it was the one being used. This strategy was recommended by the "Imperial College London" for the government of England and later adhered to many academic and health institutions: "SUPPRESSION": It consists of taking measures to avoid person-to-person contact to reduce the number of reproductions, as happened with SARS or Ebola, waiting for a vaccine to be invented to avoid contagion and death. According to what scientific sources indicate, the time needed to find this vaccine with obvious effects of avoiding the contagion can take more than 12 months and its massive application another 6 to 9 months.

2. It is financial because it had to be discontinued with commercial activities in the world, closing borders, shopping centers, tourist centers, suspending trips of all kinds, etc. This has generated, together with parallel events (Oil War), the precipitous fall of the stock markets. There are currently more than 3,000,000 people in the United States applying for the unemployment fund.

3. It is economic, due to a decrease in the demand for products and services, which implies great economic losses for companies.

4. And social, because society has not lived up to the events to face a crisis of this magnitude, generating changes in consumption, communication, transportation, and health habits. This event will cause trauma in society, which will be difficult to overcome.

Learning from history

Complex system

I remember a work published by "Rolando García", on complex systems. In which he detailed the work he had to do, when the United Nations organized the world food conference in 1972, in which it was estimated that world food reserves reached "only" 26 days of world consumption, below the era postwar. And the cause, at first glance, was climate change. The research for which he was responsible consisted of determining the “social, ethical, cultural and political implications of possible climate change. At the time I was also doing a show with Jean Piaget.

In conclusion, what was relevant was his conclusion, in which he determined that the climatic problem (drought) was only one factor and that the great problem was that "the catastrophe of the decrease in food production" was grounded by a "structure deficient socioeconomic ”, erected for decades.

In another order, the crisis of 1929, originating in the United States, we can describe saying that world leaders "underestimated" this crisis believing that its impact was "serious" only when in fact it was "serious" and "chronic" with a duration of approximately 10 years. History also tells us that it was one of the elements that determined, to a certain extent, the generation of more totalitarian and populist governments, causing the Second World War.

Consider.

What "possibly" will come.

? A critical period of illness, confinement, and death of 12 months, until there is a vaccine that can be applied to the entire society, and a less critical transition period of another 12 months.

? A 36-month period of global recession, until a global economic recovery begins, leading to the closure of companies, layoffs and a drop in consumption.

? A period of 36 to 48 months psychologically frightened by contagion, illness and death, reducing overall tourist consumption.

? A change of habit in communication, in commercial systems, in social systems, being less direct social and more "cybernetic".

? After all this, the human being needs to have learned to continue evolving.

In closing, I consider it very appropriate to add what I learned, one month after the fall of the Twin Towers, at a seminar, in which the speaker indicated that it was "easy" to hold people in the Middle East accountable, but by At the same time, it was hard to see that "something (society) had done wrong to make this happen ..." The seminar was on Peter Senge's 11 Laws of Systemic Thought, and today more than ever, we must keep them in mind:

1.-Today's problems derive from yesterday's solutions.

2.- The more you press, the more you press the system

3.-Behavior improves before it worsens

4.-The easy way leads to the same place

5.-The cure can be worse than the disease.

6.-The fastest is the slowest

7.-Cause and effect are not close in time and space.

8.-Small changes usually produce big results, but the areas with the highest leverage are usually the least obvious.

9.-Two apparently contradictory objectives can be achieved

10.-Dividing an elephant in half does not generate two small elephants

11.-There is no fault