#49 Average does not exist

I always thought I was pretty good at almost everything I did. Not because I have talent but because I always focus a lot on the things that get on my path and I discipline myself. I felt I was better than the average at most of the things I did, but never the best.  

I am not talking in terms of “the best in the world” but the best in a local term. In the circle of people that I know that have something in common that I can practice as well.  I could never be the best but always better than the average. 

But after studying different topics and better understanding how the world works, I realized that the “average” does not exist. 

Around the year 1900, the Italian Engineer and  Economist Vilfredo Pareto made a very interesting discovery. He theories that there was a probability distribution that was clearly noted, especially related to the world's economy. This distribution stipulated that 20% of the people were receiving 80% of the resources and that it had been like that since the start of human history. But with time many of us realized that this distribution is actually applied in almost anything you can think of. In nature, in society, economy, or any circle of distribution you can think of. This is what we now call the Pareto distribution. 

To make it even more interesting a couple of years later, the English linguist George Kingsley Zipf made a discovery by studying the English language. He stated that the word “The” which is the most used word in the language is used twice as much as the word “of” which is the second most used word in the language. And that one at the same time is used twice as much as “and” which is the third most used word of the language. And so on until he realized that 20% of all the words were used 80% of the time.  Making this that we call “ Zipf's law” very similar to the Pareto distribution, with the added bonus that the first place always has approximately the double of success as the second place and so on. 

Pareto’s distribution and Zipf’s law make us understand that the “average” doesn’t really exist. We can calculate an average but the number that we get out of it is a value that practically no one can ever have. Because in the end, you are either in the “short tail” which is that 20% that has 80% of the earnings, or you are in the “long tail” which is the rest. But no one really has the average.

For example, The international ice cream association says that vanilla ice cream has 30% of all the ice cream sales around the world. The second place is chocolate ice cream with 15%, third is strawberry with 7.5%. And as you can guess, if you see the whole distribution, 20% of all the ice cream generates 80% of the sales. This is just one example of the thousands that you can see applied in the world. 

If you think about it, it really makes sense how the distribution works. For example, when cars started being produced, (100 years ago approx) they needed to have seats that everyone could use. So cars started having seats that would fit the average size of a person. The problem is that no one is exactly the average size. So the seats were uncomfortable for everyone. So later we had to create an adjustable seat. Which anyone can arrange to be comfortable for their size. That made more sense because the average does not exist. 

Knowing this can be overwhelming because it means that we either try to be the best in a circle of distribution or we will be in the long tail and we need a lot of work to be able to climb up the ladder. But we can take another perspective that should actually make us feel better knowing this. A perspective that helps you go forward instead of hiding behind the idea of saying “I just want to be average”. 

Think about it this way, sometimes it can even feel like magic when you suddenly manage to win and you get a giant momentum to the top. It is really strange because you are the best out of nowhere and everything starts getting easier and it feels like the distribution just has to be fulfilled. But why would something like this happen? 

Imagine you are one of the unlucky people that has cancer and you just figured it out. What doctor would you seek? The best that you can find right? If you only have a chance you will look for the one that you know that most probably can help you. This way the doctors at the top are being held there by the clients that look for them, keeping them easier at the top. 

If someone has money and is hungry, what restaurant would they look for? The best one, the one with the most people in a line waiting, or the one with the best reviews. This way helps the distribution to make sense. 

With this, you can notice that if you are going deep into the whole, you will sink deeper and deeper, but if at some point you manage to succeed, the momentum will take you to the top. People will notice you and want more from you because you are the best. You will immediately pass from the low part of the distribution to the high part. You will never be in the average zone because it does not exist. 

 This is very motivating because it means that all the effort that you put into something will always be worth it. When people say “money attracts more money” that is exactly the reason why. The distribution always ends up being true. This can be very motivating, but of course, it requires you to put a lot of effort to reach that state. 

80% of the mass of the trees in a forest is held by 20% of the trees, the tallest ones in the forest. 

80% of the population of the world live in 20% of the biggest cities. 

80% of the wealth in the world is held by 20% of the people. 

Even 20% of the songs in Spotify are the ones played 80% of the time. 

The average doesn't exist.

Like when you see someone that started going to the gym that says “ I don’t want to look super strong like a bodybuilder. I just want to be a bit stronger and look normal like the average you know?” That is not possible. You need a goal to be able to get to somewhere, otherwise, you will stay in the Longtail, and once you have that goal it will take you to look better each time and suddenly you will be in the short tail ( the 20%). You will never be able to just adjust yourself to be Average.  Even if you set yourself to be average, the goal will give you momentum that will push you up. 

When I was at my gym and some people told me “ I just want to look Normal” I told them: That is not an easy task. I have been training for years and I don’t look like a giant bodybuilder. Because to be there you need to give a lot of effort. And you either do that or don’t, and then you will either be less than or much more than average, but never exactly there. 

Understanding this you can motivate yourself to do things by giving your best. Or understand that if you don’t you won’t even get to average. So you are better off doing something you really like and want. 

This reminds me of the movie  “101 dalmatians “ where the main villain use to kill dalmatians to make her cloth out of them, and in the end, Roger and his family ( the good guys in the movie) take 101 of those dalmatians, which is 80% of all the cloth that Cruella ( the main villain ) could have collected if she kept them. 

Roger only had 8 dogs in his house and he ended up with 101. But he accepts them because he understands that this distribution is inevitable. He lives the rest of his life raising all these puppies. 

Once you understand this distribution you can create different strategies and understand that you will never be the average. Where you are, probably no one else is or will be. You are special in that sense. Even if you are closer or further, you will always be in a place where no one can be exactly. 

I used to hear the saying “If you are the most intelligent person in a room, you are in the wrong place”. Of course, this depends on the subject and what you want to learn because there will always be someone that knows more about something than the other. But if we refer to a specific niche and subject. You can notice that the most intelligent person if it is not you, will always be much more intelligent than what you are in the subject. It can even be difficult to learn something from them if they are so much on top of the subject than you are. But knowing this you can also say that you are either very low in the subject. You can learn a lot from the rest or you are way more into it than everyone else. 

You can use this knowledge to either learn more or to use it to put yourself in a position that you want to be. This works with knowledge, intelligence, and any skill. 

Look for that circle distribution that you want to be part of. Check how the Pareto distribution works in it. And then aim for what you want to achieve based on this. If you see any goal in this circle like it is too high, remember that if you put all your effort there is a moment when you might jump from one part of the distribution to the other like magic. Otherwise, you can always look for another circle where you can see the goals more clearly and try it there. 

Companies understand this very well, they know their position in the market and don’t argue with it. For example Pepsi and Fritz cola in Germany. They know they are second and third place, always behind Coca-Cola by far.

Fritz cola was not even close to the 20% but they aimed to be there and they managed to do it. Being the second most sold in Germany today. Knowing their position they take different strategies than if they just try to go against Coca-Cola because they know how difficult it actually is to get there. 

And by focusing on the second position they keep their high value which is also very good. While some others just focus on taking down the best and they end up falling as it happened to so many others. 

Even worse are the companies that try to be “average”, they try to target “everyone” instead of finding a niche, a circle where they can position themselves. These ones never make it to anything, because the average doesn’t exist. 

When I understood this, I realized that I am either very low in the distribution of many things or very high and I didn’t even notice it. Once I analyze this I see how much higher I am in many subjects. And how I can make a strategy to be big in others. 

And if I put together everything I know, I can be at the top of some circle where I can manage all of them. Like a manager or something like this. I can manage and help the ones that are really at the top of the distribution by applying my overall knowledge, that is part of what I try to do with these articles. 

Don’t seek to be average, because that doesn’t exist. See where you are in the distribution, and in any case. Understand that you really need to want what you can become, otherwise you won’t put the necessary effort to be at the top of the distribution. Take advantage of all this to motivate you to get what you really want. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this. 

Until next time.