41# - How to Predict Project Failure: Brexit was a Project Doomed to Fail

I believe that you can predict project failure way before a project fails. Our role as project leaders is to anticipate, warn and take action to make the project a success.

A few years ago, I wrote an article about the Brexit project, highlighting that it was a project doomed to fail because most of its fundamentals were missing. Today, it is sad to see the almost daily news about the negative consequences it has in the UK society and business environment.

A recent survey by the Guardian comparing prices in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Ireland showed that UK shoppers pay up to 50% more than those in the EU. And this is just one data point; a few days ago, we saw the 20+ hours of queues for the British to cross the channel to get to their holiday destinations in Europe.

Here is my analysis back in 2016, which is pretty much still valid.

When Theresa May became the British Prime Minister, I suggested that she had a huge task to avert Brexit from becoming a catastrophe.?Little has happened to make me change my mind in the intervening three years.

I don’t speak as a politician but as a project manager and someone who has analyzed thousands of failed projects over the last 15 years.?In my research, I looked at large and small projects, business and politics, strategic and operational projects, one-off projects, and portfolios of projects. One thing came across very clearly: all the projects that didn’t deliver their expected outcomes were missing answers to at least three of six key questions at the heart of good project management practices.?These questions make are an essential part of the Project Canvas that I developed in 2018.

Brexit misses at least five, so the chances of failure are – and always were --enormous. ?Here are the five questions that Brexit has so far failed to answer:

1: Compelling Rationale (Why?) We invest resources (time and effort) in a project to solve a problem or to capture an opportunity. The main motivation for the people who voted to leave the EU was emotional. They rebelled against the bureaucrats in Brussels, the refugees, the huge amount of money they thought the UK would save, and so on. The rationale is far less compelling when they realize that most of the benefits they voted for were an illusion.?

Since the Brexit vote, no compelling rationale has been developed by Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and their governments.?That is why they have continued to emphasize what they regard as their democratic duty to follow the referendum result.?They don’t even pretend any longer that Brexit is economically beneficial for the UK.

2. Strong Charismatic Sponsor (Who?) Probably the most important characteristic of a successful transformation project has a strong, engaged, and charismatic sponsor. For example, President Obama passed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in the US in 2010 despite trenchant opposition from the Republican party.

Having won the referendum, the outside observer might have assumed that its champions would have provided the leadership to take the UK out of the EU.?That hasn’t been the case.?People such as Nigel Farage have preferred sniping rather than leading.?This left a power vacuum that Theresa May has sought to fill.?With no experience of leading large transformation projects and a patent lack of charisma, Mrs. May is ill-equipped to provide the leadership required.?The starting point was that she voted to Remain. This was a bad start from which she has rarely looked like recovering.?It is difficult to be the flag bearer for a cause you don’t fundamentally believe in. Boris Johnson brought more experience in making important changes happen, yet with very little change management to encourage the overall adoption.

3. Clarity of Scope (What?) The scope defines what the project will look like when delivered. The more we know about this at the beginning of the project, the better we can estimate the duration, cost, and skills needed to produce the desired outcome. The opposite also applies: the more uncertainty there is about the scope, the more difficult it is to have an accurate plan.

The Brexit project is unique. It has never been done before. Therefore, no one knows what it entails. Not even the most outspoken Brexiter had a clue about the complexity of the separation. Defining the scope of Brexit is a painful task that will take months and maybe years.?Even now, the full scope of the project is barely understood.?Mrs. May’s mistake was to trigger Article 50 to leave the EU before she had any real sense of what that entailed.

4. Buy-in from key stakeholders (Whom?) The most successful projects occur when all, or at least most, of the key stakeholders (i.e., people impacted by the project who have influence) favor the change. Even better is when they support the project. For example, the entire country was behind the project during the London Olympics. There was a huge support during the bidding, during the construction, and during the celebration of the games.?

In project management, there is a maxim: “There is always one stakeholder who will be happy if your project fails.” With Brexit, 48 percent voted?against the change, so there was little buy-in from the start.?Mrs. May’s and Mr. Johnson's failure to reach out to "Remain" voters to convince them of their strategy has simply hardened opposition.

5. Precise Finish-line (When?) Projects that start with a clear and undisputed deadline have a higher chance of success. Starting without a finish line can make a project drag on for months and even years. Many examples of projects set ambitious deadlines to achieve un-thinkable results. One of the best is during the cold war years when John F. Kennedy set the bold goal of “putting the first man on the Moon by the end of the 1960s”. Those words drove an entire nation to accomplish a project that would have never been possible without that insane finish line.

Deadlines in project management are used to focus the team, increase their attention towards the end goal, and put pressure on them to perform at their best.

Deadlines stick in peoples’ minds. Every British citizen knew the date of the referendum, the 23 of June 2016. Yet, nobody seemed to know when the Brexit project would finish, even after Boris Johnson signed the deal with the EU. The longer a project takes, the higher the chances of failure. In project management terms, an activity with neither a beginning nor an end cannot be considered a project. Nearly three years after the vote to leave the EU, the process of leaving was barely at the end of the beginning.

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It is never easy to tell senior leaders that a project will fail if no action is taken. Still, the modern project manager needs to feel comfortable challenging their senior leadership and always bringing the elephant to the room.

The more challenging part I think we still need to find a solution and approach to deal with is how to address those projects with negative consequences lasting for years and decades.

Do you also think that project failure can be predicted?

How can we address the negative consequences of projects?

Strategy Implementation PlayBook - Just Released!

I am pleased to announce that my partner Robin Speculand and I have just published our first book, the Strategy Implementation Playbook. I will be sharing more about it in the next newsletter. If the strategy implementation topic is of interest, you can order a copy here.

That is all for now.

Thanks for reading, and do not hesitate to reach out to share your views and suggestions.

Hasta la vista and happy summer!

Antonio??