40-Year Cycle of War & Peace

8-09-17: The escalating & incendiary rhetoric between the United States & North Korea is just the latest validation to the 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace - projected to unfold in 2015 - 2021. As explained in 2014 - 2015, that cycle has timed dramatic geopolitical shifts on a consistent basis, dating back to the first shot in the Revolutionary War (1775), the opening battles leading into the US Civil War (Bloody Kansas, etc. in 1855), Hitler’s arming of Germany (1935) leading to World War II & the culmination of Viet Nam (1975)… as well as intervening events explained in the following excerpt.

There were, and are, some critical nuances to this cycle: 

1. The most important is that it has alternated from inception of war to completion of war and back to inception of war - every 40 years. With 1975 marking the completion of the Viet Nam War, 2015 was scheduled to be the early phase or inception (usually undetected or unrecognized for their future significance) of a new conflict, ultimately involving the US.
2. America has an overlapping 80-Year Cycle that began with the completion of the Revolutionary War (1781), timed the onset of the Civil War (1861) and her entry into World War II (1941). This 80-Year Cycle pinpoints 2021 as the most likely time for America’s entry into another full-scale conflict. However, just as in each of the previous phases, there are precursor skirmishes and limited battles in the years leading into that (2015 - 2021). 

The following excerpt from the April 2015 INSIIDE Track elaborates on this analysis…

3-31-15: The month of April 2015 provides a unique, synergistic convergence of diverse cycles - ranging from intermediate (1 - 3 month) market cycles to an uncanny annual cycle to a 40-Year Cycle and even a 100-Year Cycle…

It is important that a reader understand the significance and specific application/expectation of each of these cycles… and try not to add anything to them. Also, it is critical to resist expecting too much from any of them individually. For instance, the 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace - that applies to both America and the world - has many key nuances that should be properly & accurately understood. One of those is that this cycle tends to swing from initiation to culmination and back to initiation… at a 40-year interval.

That is why I termed it the ‘40-Year Cycle of War AND Peace’. Although it predates America’s national history, let’s focus on her for a moment…

• April 1775 timed the first shot in the Revolutionary War - on April 19, 1775. 40 years later…
• April 1815 marked the departure of British forces following the War of 1812. 40 years later…
• 1855 witnessed lightning rod events that led to the Civil War at the same time global events (China, Japan & Russia) set the stage for future conflicts.
• 1895 reinforced the growing, global influence of this cycle - particularly with regard to Spain & America (over Cuba and ultimately Philippines).
• 1935 witnessed Adolph Hitler reinstating the Luftwaffe and re-arming Germany - in direct violation of the Treaty of Versailles. Could that have been in preparation for anything?  In May 1935, Hitler reinstated conscription (draft) to the Wermacht (German Armed Services - formed in March 1935) - in further preparation… for something.

To codify 'who was with and who was against him', Hitler introduced the Nuremberg Laws in Sept. 1935 (anti-semetic laws, outlining racial purity, etc.). That was followed by the establishment of the Lebensborn program in Dec. 1935 (to propogate a pure Aryan race) - at about the same time 48 tank battalions were added to the Wermacht.

Is it a stretch to consider 1935 as the onset of what would later be known as World War II?

At the same time, China had its own epiphany - and a Tiananmen Square protest (not unlike the subsequent 1989 protest) - in 1935. It triggered their resistance against the Japanese and ultimately led to the Second Sino-Japanese War of 1937--1945… all part of World War II.  

40 years later…

• April 1975 marked the culmination of the Vietnam War. 40 years later… is…
• 2015… and April 2015.   

If it is true - that this 40-Year Cycle swings from inception to completion, that would mean that the trigger events for new wars are seen on an 80-Year Cycle (while the culmination/completion events are seen on an alternating, overlapping 80-Year Cycle).

• 1775 - Revolutionary War
• 1855 - Triggers to Civil War
• 1935 - Triggers to World War II
• 2015 - ??? (New Triggers??)

Keep in mind the original events are often not recognized for their significance until years or even decades later. Even the first shot in the Battles of Lexington & Concord - fired on April 19, 1775 - was a relatively small battle between ~700 British troops & ~500 militia (later expanded to about 1,700).

Though it was later (in 1837) referred to as the ‘shot heard round the world’, I doubt that anyone in 1775 heard it much beyond Lexington, MA. The pro-slavery election theft (Border Ruffians) in Kansas on March 30, 1855 lit a fire that was only recognized for its significance decades later.  

Similarly, the initiation of Hitler’s military & eugenics programs in 1935 - though undeniably the trigger points for WWII - were probably only seen as isolated issues, at the time. So, 2015 is likely to ‘start the next ball rolling’, even if that ball is not recognized for a few years. With that in mind, let’s briefly discuss a ‘ball’ that is already rolling...

Oil Weapon II - 40 Years Apart

In August 1973, a secret meeting took place between Saudi King Faisal & Egypt’s Anwar Sadat - to discuss the use of the ‘oil weapon’, as Middle East nations prepared to battle Israel. The weapon was soon wielded, the West succumbed, and Saudi Arabia secured their global standing.

In August 2013, one precise 40-Year Cycle later, details emerged of a secret meeting between Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia (see page 5) and Vladimir Putin in Russia. It was a ‘carrot or stick’ type of encounter in which Bandar offered Russia financial & global power-sharing in exchange for Russia abandoning support of Syria’s Assad.

Putin said ‘nyet’ and - coincidentally - oil peaked that same month: August 2013! (Keep in mind that Russia’s entire economy was being kept afloat by the high price of oil.) Over the ensuing 18 months, Saudi Arabia steadily flooded the market with oil and then reaffirmed their policy in 2014 - sending oil prices reeling… at the same time the Ukrainian Crisis spurred Western sanctions. The ‘oil weapon’ had again been deployed!

Could this be the precursor to a larger conflict… as the ‘Bear’ is being backed into a corner? As in 1973 - 1979, the full ramifications of the ‘oil weapon’ should play out for several years!...

40-Year Cycle: The Oil Weapon - Part II

Anyone following the discussion on the 40-Year Cycle should know that its latest phase - from 2013 - 2017 (although different groupings within that date range have been cited, depending on the specific aspects of the outlook being addressed) - has been expected to usher in a dramatic (fundamental) shift in the U.S. Dollar, somewhat related to the shift it underwent in 1973 - 1977. That shift included the following key events, that would ultimately merge into the new reality (from 1977 to the present):

• Nixon Shock of August 1971, when Nixon slammed the Gold (convertibility) window shut on the rest of the world. That laid the groundwork for 1973 - 1977.  
• Collapse of Bretton Woods in March 1973 (a process triggered in 1971).
• ‘Oil Weapon’ of 1973. The wielding of this weapon emphatically demonstrated the new ‘power structure’ around the globe… and, to some extent, brought the West to her knees.
• Petrodollar emergence. Saudi King Faisal - after secret meetings with Nixon administration - agreed to price Saudi oil ONLY in US Dollars. The rest of OPEC eventually followed suit. As of 1975, all of OPEC was pricing oil ONLY in US Dollars. 2015 is a 40-Year Cycle from then.
• Umbrella of protection. In exchange, America agreed to protect Saudi (and eventually, many of OPEC’s) oil fields from attack. The most feared & obvious aggressor - at that time - was the Soviet Union.
• Debt buying binge. Saudi Arabia & OPEC also agreed to take oil surplus funds and purchase US debt instruments. OPEC would then fund America’s spending and inflation, from that point forward.
• Jamaica Accord in 1976 - removing any final currency links to Gold… the certificate of divorce.

So, what is the common thread in all of these events? Simply put, it is the US Dollar… and what is backing or supporting it. What is backing it? Simply put, the vacillating whims of an aging absolute monarchy that began a little over 80 years ago (two 40-Year Cycles). But who is really in control?

The current Saudi King (Salman) is 79, has had at least one stroke, and is alleged to be suffering from dementia. Makes you wonder who is really in control. He ascended to the throne on Jan. 23, 2015, upon the death of King Abdullah. Of course, Abdullah had been ‘compromised’ for many years. So, who wielded the real power?

One of the most powerful Saudi leaders of the past 30 years has never held the title of ’king’. He is Prince Bandar bin Sultan - the ambassador to the U.S. from 1983 - 2005 and head of the Saudi intelligence agency from 2005 until April 15, 2014 (there’s that date again)... when he was removed. He was so close to the Sr. Bush that he was sometimes referred to as Bandar Bush… or a member of the Bush family.

There is a lot more to it than this, but let’s briefly identify a few ’dots’ and see if you can connect them… Bandar - since 2005 - has been an increasingly powerful leader, thought to be the real power-wielder the past 2-3 years, as King Abdullah was rapidly declining in health. He is alleged to have connections to ISIS (part of his goal to overthrow Assad in Syria) and powerful influence over the Chechen rebels. 

In August 2013, reports emerged regarding a secret meeting between Bandar & Vladimir Putin in which Bandar allegedly gave Putin a choice - take Saudi money and turn your back on Syria & Iran (and join Saudi as the oil kingpins of the globe)… or deal with new attacks from the Chechen rebels - leading into the Sochi Olympics.

Putin declined Bandar’s offer & lashed out at him on Saudi’s support of terrorism. A few months later, Chechen bombings began anew. And, it appears, Bandar’s April 2014 removal pushed him to go the other route. Coinciding with Ukraine-related sanctions, Saudi wielded the oil weapon against Russia - allowing prices to plummet and decimate the Russian (and Iranian & Venezuelan) economy, with the help of America & the West. 

The battle lines have now been drawn. But, is there a chance that - just like in 1973 - 1975 - the oil weapon is deployed but reconciliation soon follows?  Could Russia (& BRICS) ultimately benefit?? More of this discussion to come...  IT

Excerpt from April 2015 INSIIDE Track.   

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING/INVESTING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

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Eric Hadik is President of INSIIDE Track Trading and the editor of INSIIDE Track and the Weekly Re-Lay. More information can be found at www.insiidetrack.com. Corresponding analysis on the 40-Year Cycle & 17-Year Cycle can be found at www.40YearCycle.com & www.17YearCycle.com.