4 things a week: The AI bubble
1. World
Back on the AI topic again. But after the state of the U.S. stock markets the past couple of weeks, it’s hard not to reflect on the impact the hype of AI is already having on the global economy. There seems to be a fairly wide consensus from those working in, or closely following, AI tech that the bubble is deflating. The reality of these technologies, or at least generative AI and LLMs like Chat GPT, has not matched the promise that it would bring genuine benefits, particularly to enterprise where AI firms were hoping to make their money back. And it’s not rocket science. Yes, at Morrama we use Gen-AI tools and Chat GPT to draft, prototype or mock-up, but they are not game-changing and they are certainly not good enough to rely on for quality output. Sure, 100 million people per week use Chat-GPT. That’s still a massive amount. But to put it in context, Snapchat has 410 million a day. And who do you know that uses Snapchat! And large language models like Chat-GPT are incredibly expensive to run. Server costs along are said to cost Open AI over $1 million a day. A DAY.?
Maybe this is too hasty, maybe we just need to give it more time. Mark Zuckerberg said the same back in February, that it would be several years before Meta made any money from AI, and the reaction - a fall in share price of 15%. This gives you some indication that expectation vs reality are not aligned. But with Goldman Sachs giving a scathing review of Gen-AI “too much spend, too little benefit” and VC firm Sequioa Capital clearly declaring this AI madness a bubble that is about to burst, it’s not just investors that are scared. With AI on the brink of a recession, the question is, will the AI tech bubble prevent it or exacerbate it?
If you want to read more on this, it's worth checking out Brian Merchant 's latest newsletter on it.
2. Innovation
Why is it that the world is not designed for small people? I’m 5’2, weight 50kg and, despite being a piano player, have hands so small I can hardly reach an octave. The recent release of the Dyson Ontrac headphones is yet another product on the market not designed for people like me. Now, I’m by no means unique. If I lived in China I’d be bang on average. In the Phillippines, where the average female height is 4’11, I’d be considered tall. Yet I know, without trying, that those massive ear cups and chunky headband will not just look ridiculous, but won’t even sit comfortably on my head. Having been involved in the design process of many products over the years, there are two reasons why a pair of headphones would end up so cumbersome. A). There was no-one small on the design team, so no-one raised the issue (or was taken seriously). B). Other features were prioritised. Obviously I can’t make a judgement on the Dyson team and its decision making, but according to Kerning the Gap, only 17% of leadership roles in the design industry are held by women. So men are calling the shots.
Of course you can argue that any good design team should be testing products out with target customers with a range of body shapes and sizes, But there is a big difference between getting in a room for 20 minutes with someone who doesn’t look or think like you and actually being that person. In the same way that a straight person will never instinctively know what it’s like to be gay, a 6ft man cannot naturally empathise with a 5ft female. Empathy takes time, you need to actually care about someone to empathise with them, and the best way to achieve this is to have a diverse design team from the off.?
Now perhaps there will is an Ontrac ‘Lite’ on the way. Perhaps I’m just not the target demographic. That’s OK. But what if it was a medical device? Or a safety device? This conversation isn’t new, there has been articles about how car seatbelts are not designed for women for over a decade. But just because it’s old, doesn’t mean it’s not still important.
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3. Morrama?
A sneak peak at the design identity for our open office at London Design Festival. Sign up to the newsletter HERE to get first access to tickets next week.
4. Inspiration
After a week of violence across the UK, instigated by far right groups including the EDL (English Defence League) it was moving to see the pictures of anti-racism demonstrators stepping out across the country. It’s worth checking out these pictures from the Guardian showing, not just the numbers, but the mix of age, race and background standing together for peace and unity and countering planned far-right action.
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