4 FORCES REDEFINING THE TALENT FUNCTION
Omar Farooq
Executive Search, Establish Captive/ Capability centres, Interim HR Leadership & Contingency Hiring
Spoilers - ?This is not an AI centric post
The 4 forces mentioned are already (re)defining work – but as usual the future arrives at different degrees for different firms, industries \
4 Forces redefining the talent? function?
Force 1- Software & technology has been eating jobs for a while- but with AI the appetite just might be insatiable
“Perhaps the most damning piece of evidence, according to Brynjolfsson, is a chart that only an economist could love. In economics, productivity—the amount of economic value created for a given unit of input, such as an hour of labor—is a crucial indicator of growth and wealth creation. It is a measure of progress. On the chart Brynjolfsson likes to show, separate lines represent productivity and total employment in the United States. For years after World War II, the two lines closely tracked each other, with increases in jobs corresponding to increases in productivity. The pattern is clear: as businesses generated more value from their workers, the country as a whole became richer, which fueled more economic activity and created even more jobs. Then, beginning in 2000, the lines diverge; productivity continues to rise robustly, but employment suddenly wilts. By 2011, a significant gap appears between the two lines, showing economic growth with no parallel increase in job creation. Brynjolfsson and McAfee call it the “great decoupling.” And Brynjolfsson says he is confident that technology is behind both the healthy growth in productivity and the weak growth in jobs.” ( Entire para is from – “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs ” by David Rotman MIT Technology Review- 2013)
While Brynjolfsson used data extensively from Manufacturing – here is my contention on why the knowledge worker job is headed in the same direction- i.e.- productivity will increase- but no concurrent increase in job creation , and wealth / compensation gaps will widen
I recently met a software tester with 14 years experience hired by one of the FAANG firms in India. The selection process took about 6 months – and the compensation offered was a base of 100,000 USD in India. While the Services companies in India – Infosys, Cognizant, TCS- would not have gone beyond 35-40,000 USD . That is the difference between the elite and the rest- and this would be further exaggerated by automation and AI coming in to take over the low-skilled tester roles.
Now consider this – About 12-15 years ago, there were small shops on every “digital corner” in New Delhi that would set up a basic website for your business for a mere USD 1000. If they had a bit more creativity could charge USD 2000 and even offer a bonus- logo design. These shops have all but vanished. The few that remain target the naive and digitally illiterate.
So where did they vanish- …from personal experience- Software ate them up. WordPress, Typedream came and put the low cost , low quality teams out of business. When I started AceProHR- I realised I needed to operate/ build my digital assets because the at the cost I could afford the quality was atrocious. It literally took 15 days of Youtube and Coursera sessions- and I made AceProHR with a plugged in Job board.?
The D2C wave is being propelled by SAAS. You can use shopify & Dukaan? and launch an idea for as low as 100 USD a month for the technology? platform. 10 years back- it would require a small team to get your products online
In my opinion following products have made about half a million jobs across the globe redundant over a period of 15 -20 years?
In the next 5 years as use cases for generative AI and associated tech improve- imagine the impact on junior and middle management roles. Even if they do not replace people- what will happen is as Brynjolfsson explained productivity will increase, but knowledge worker job creation will get decoupled from it and compensation growth!??
HR Impact of Software & AI eating jobs
Force 2- Data Driven Mathematical Corporation
Organisations have access to huge pools of data being created across functions, processes and devices/ machines. Combine this with the advances made in compute power and applied analytics and data science and you have a Mathematical Corporation – Machines are moving from grunt work to Knowledge workers.
HR impact of the Mathematical Corporation
AI & people working in tandem-? While synthetic Knowledge workers are still some time away , working in tandem with AI will make for lesser knowledge work jobs and roles at junior and middle management .
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Not just for products and marketing . A/B? testing will become prevalent for talent initiatives,? and services as well?Predictive Models will impact every sub-function of HR- whether its Talent Acquisition, Employee Engagement and training and development
?But what requires more focus and research is the transformation of previously? unstructured decisions into structured decisions- this has implications on organisation design, executive compensation ( hopefully ) and engagement .?
Force 3- The Power Curve will rule - productivity & performance
The power curve was traditionally used to define productivity/ performance in performance arts, sports, influencer income, - anything which has a disproportionate impact on a large audience-but soon smart firms and even smarter leaders like Steve jobs- started using it to discern between average and best in software, VC investments, design and now AI Augmentation will enable it to percolate it to other roles?
The transition may not be as profound as software engineering & design -as shown in the below image - but it will tend towards it across functions and industries?
Impact of the transition to Power Curve on HR
Force 4- The Talent Cloud will become Ubiquitous in HR Strategy
The talent cloud is not only a derivative of the factors mentioned above but also the following
References
By Omar Farooq - Founder & CEO AceProHR.
This article is adapted from a lecture I gave at the MBA HR programme of the University of Delhi
GCC Builder | Strategy and Operations | Business Transformation | Consulting
10 个月Solid insights, as always... I think there will be jobs needed to bring this all together for organizations that will need to transform holistically and emerge on top... :)