3rd Thursday – 3 Things
1. Gray Rhinoceros
2. Hurricane Season
3. Innovation
The Gray Rhinoceros tramples the Black Swan. I’m bothered by the number of times I’ve heard the coronavirus referred to as a Black Swan event. Coronavirus is a Gray Rhinoceros event. We knew the rhino was there and we knew what it was – and dutifully ignored the risk. Black Swans are unforeseen and unplanned – not what we have seen since November 2019. A ‘Gray Rhinoceros’ was first introduced as a concept by economist Nassim Taleb around 2001 and expanded on in several articles and books since. https://www.wucker.com/writing/the-gray-rhino/ . In short, a Gray Rhino event is one that is recognized, known and high impact that is not sufficiently acknowledged prior to manifesting itself and running through the room wreaking havoc. A key lessoned learned is that we must acknowledge and manage our Grey Rhinos. What’s yours?
On top of everything else, 2020 Hurricane Season starts (officially? – no one told Arthur) June 1st. For my friends on the East and Gulf Coasts, please remember to prepare. NOAA predicts a busy season in the Atlantic. First movers from cornering the toilet paper market may already be in a supplied and prepared state – but please double check you overall stores of emergency needs and be ready. A great resource if you have questions about prepping for Hurricanes, or large storms in general, is my good colleague Haskell Moore. He has a comprehensive book available on the topic: Hurricane Preparedness for the Home and Family.
Business and technical innovation is likely to accelerate as we move to a post – lockdown world. I do believe that the events of the past 3+ months have created an environment where business and markets are even more open to innovative ideas than before. Opportunities are everywhere. Where people choose to live and work. What people demand in housing. How we train and educate. How we source our energy. How we automate tasks. How we travel. These will reveal themselves over the next several months. Let’s work to craft these into something better than we had before.
Take care of yourself. Stay well.