30% of hours worked by employees today could be automated by 2030 with the adoption of GenAI
Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Global People Analytics & HR Data Leader - People & Culture | Strategical People Analytics Design
?? Automation will continue to disrupt employees.
An additional 12 million occupational transitions may be needed by 2030 and workers in lower-wage jobs are up to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than those in highest-wage positions, and most will need additional skills to do so successfully. Not all genders are equal when it comes to shifting job: Women are 1.5 times more likely to need to move into new occupations than men. Generative AI has the potential to increase US labor productivity by 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points annually through 2030 in a midpoint adoption scenario. Combining generative AI with all other automation technologies, the potential growth could be even larger, according to a new interesting research published by 麦肯锡 using data from O*NET; US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
?AI might wipe out jobs?
This research does not lead us to that conclusion, although researchers can't definitively rule out job losses, at least in the short term. Technological advances often cause disruption, but historically, they eventually fuel economic and employment growth.
While STEM, healthcare, builders, and professional fields continue to add jobs, generative AI could change work activities significantly for many occupations.
Researchers estimate that there could be demand for 3.5 million more jobs for health aides, health technicians, and wellness workers, plus an additional two million healthcare professionals. They also estimate a 23% increase in demand for STEM jobs by 2030.
?Boosting productivity through automation and GenAI
Researchers discovered that Generative AI has the potential to increase US labor productivity by 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points annually through 2030 in a midpoint adoption scenario. Combining generative AI with all other automation technologies, the potential growth could be even larger.
All types of automation could help drive US productivity growth to 3 to 4% annually in a midpoint adoption scenario. Researchers believed that this will require significant action from stakeholders across the public and private sector. Workers will need support in learning new skills, and other risks associated with generative AI also need to be mitigated and controlled.
?The occupational shifts is happening
Researchers noticed that some 8.6 million occupational shifts took place between 2019 and 2022, an increase of almost 50% from the preceding three-year period.
Declines in food services, customer service and sales, office support, and production accounted for more than half of these transitions. Losses in these categories are part of a longer-term structural change that researchers expect to continue. And they recommend that a transition is needed when someone is involuntarily displaced from a job by automation and they are unable to get a new job in the same occupation because demand has declined.?
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?Generative AI accelerates automation
Researchers estimate that without generative AI, automation could take over tasks accounting for 21.5% of the hours currently worked in the US economy by 2030. With it, that share jumps to 29.5%.
? White-collar jobs are among the most potentially impacted by GenAI
Researchers found that the biggest impact of generative AI occurring for lawyers. In a completely different field, civil engineers can use generative AI to accelerate the design process, taking all building codes into account for fewer errors and less rework.
?? Finally researchers estimate that 11.8 million workers currently in occupations with shrinking demand may need to move into different lines of work by 2030.
Workers in lower-wage roles, those with less education, women, and people of color are disproportionately represented among those who may need to find new types of work by 2030. Workers with these profiles are more vulnerable to job displacement and will need support to make successful job transitions.
Preparing American workers for the jobs of the future is a top priority for leaders across the private, public, and social sectors. If handled well, this period of change could create a more inclusive economy with higher productivity growth.?
Thank you ?? 麦肯锡 ?researchers team for these insightful findings: Kweilin Ellingrud Saurabh Sanghvi Gurneet Singh Dandona Anu Madgavkar Michael Chui Olivia White Paige Hasebe Lisa Renaud Sven Smit Christopher Bradley Kweilin Ellingrud Michael Chui Mekala Krishnan Marco Piccitto Jonathan Woetzel Jan Mischke Jeongmin Seong 成政珉 Tilman Tacke
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1 年Hi Nicolas! ?? I just checked out your post, and it's thought-provoking! The concept of "GenAI" is fascinating, and I agree that it has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach jobs and productivity. The idea of using AI to amplify human potential and augment our abilities is truly exciting. It opens up new possibilities for efficiency, creativity, and problem-solving. As with any technology, striking the right balance is crucial. Ensuring that GenAI enhances our lives without replacing the human touch is a challenge worth addressing. Your insights and perspective on the topic are valuable, and I'm sure this discussion will spark interest and innovation within the industry. Let's keep an eye on how this develops and stay curious about the ways GenAI could shape the future of work and productivity. ?? #GenAI #Productivity #FutureOfWork
LinkedIn Top Voices in Company Culture USA & Canada I Executive Advisor | HR Leader (CHRO) | Leadership Coach | Talent Strategy | Change Leadership | Innovation Culture | Healthcare | Higher Education
1 年Thanks Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Founder & CEO @ Lever Talent | Host of The Lever Show | Helping leaders develop talent strategies that leverage a tech-empowered future.
1 年Although I think there is an obligation on businesses to attempt to stay ahead of any job displacement with skills training, I think the majority of the onus falls to governments to create programs and subsidies to offset any economic hit to the displacement. AI didn't appear overnight, and women have been disproportionately in lower-paying and more tactical occupations since the beginning of industry. Many state and local governments provide subsidies for businesses to keep their workforces trained to prevent this. They do a piss-poor job promoting it, and my hope is that the shift to AI spurs a lot more conversations about programs needed to upskill workers and close gaps. Thanks for provoking this thought, Nicolas! ??
Lead consultant in HR Strategy & Value Management. Enhancing Value through Human Performance. Delivery of Equality, Diversity & Inclusion Training. Lecturer and International Speaker on HRM and Value Management.
1 年A very interesting piece of research Nicolas. There is no doubt that AI will have an affect on the What, Why, How and Where of employment. However, I was particularly intrigued by: 'Researchers noticed that some 8.6 million occupational shifts took place between 2019 and 2022, an increase of almost 50% from the preceding three-year period'. Given that this period covered much of the time when many people spent time working at home due to COVID, how much of this is down to automation and how much is down to people having more time to think about their careers and making the decision to change career due to not being happy in their present role? There was much written about the latter last year and I have even met people who decided that they would be happier running their own business than continuing to work for others. Many have even changed career altogether. Another thought-provoking post - thank you so much for sharing.