3 Reasons Why China, Philippines Chose to Strike a Deal on Reef Resupply Missions

For more than a year now, we’ve been discussing the steadily intensifying conflict between the Philippines and China over rival territorial claims in the South China Sea and how the two sides have failed to create any policy off-ramps that would allow them to de-escalate their feud.

Well, that’s no longer the case. The two sides are capable of compromise, as we learned this weekend when news broke of a tentative agreement that would dial down tensions related to resupplying the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era Philippine navy ship. The ship has been beached on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal since 1999 and serves as a marker for Manila’s territorial claim in the region.

Details of the deal have not been released, but based on what we’ve heard from Chinese authorities over the past few months, Beijing likely insisted that the Philippines cease transport of construction materials to bolster the aging warship and provide advance notice of when they plan to ferry supplies to the crew there.

There’s a fascinating back-story that explains why both sides chose this moment to make a few concessions:

1. CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS: CGSP learned from well-placed sources that the Philippines Navy’s effort to strengthen the Sierra Madre was recently completed, and the ship is now sufficiently strong to withstand powerful typhoons.?

Manila’s concession to stop secretly ferrying construction supplies to the ship was easy to make since the work had been done.

2. LAST CHANCE BEFORE THE U.S. GETS INVOLVED:?After the violence that occurred on June 17th, Manila reportedly decided to try to re-supply the Sierra Madre on its own one more time before calling on the U.S. for support.

That would have been problematic for the Chinese, who are keen to keep the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy on the sidelines. While the Chinese could have blockaded the ship by sea, Pentagon officials were reportedly weighing plans for a helicopter air drop that would have been difficult for the Chinese to stop.

3. CHANGING POLITICS IN WASHINGTON:??With the prospect that U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump is well-positioned to return to power next year, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. is no doubt reconsidering how much he can truly count on the U.S. to intervene should the conflict with China in the South China Sea become kinetic.?

Marcos is smart enough to know that if Trump wavers in his commitment to protecting Taiwan, then the Philippines will probably get the same treatment. So, finding a political resolution with China now makes a lot more sense than it did last year when this conflict began.

The Chinese, too, are recalculating based on the projected U.S. election results and likely holding out hope that Donald Trump will be re-elected. So, in their view, why risk messing things up now when they could potentially have much more flexibility to maneuver next year with a more isolationist president in the White House?