3 mistakes we make with 'foresight'

And, in a moment .... she vanished.....!

Did you ever play the game of 'vanish' in your school playground on a very foggy day, when you were a child?

If you were the person doing the chasing, do you remember the moment when your friends vanished into the fog because they could run faster than you?

My favourite friend when I was ten years old was Suzanne. She was very kind to animals and very good at maths! What more could you ask for?!

That day we were playing in the fog and things went wrong. Badly wrong.

I didn't see her coming and she saw me too late. Whack! We ran right into each other. Thankfully no serious injuries. Bleeding knees. A small cut just above my eye. A scar is still there.

How did we not see that coming?

It often seems that in our organisations - at individual, team, enterprise and value and supply chain levels - we're not much different. We are exposed to 'not seeing it coming'. Think of the UK's bungled energy strategy for a start. Or Covid19.

Events that catch us short - and seemed to come out of nowhere. Decisions that came out of left field. A crisis emerging that we thought we didn't have to worry about on 'our watch'.

This article outlines three mistakes we make when it comes to leveraging foresight for goal success and competitive advantage at individual, team, organisation and eco-system levels:

MISTAKE 1: Mistaking the role, and therefore losing the value, of 'Foresight'.

To be clear:

'Foresight' is not:

• a prediction of 'the future' (e.g. a total view of 'the future' for all purposes)
• a forecast of reliable metrics involved in 'the future' (e.g. to input to business cases or corporate plans)

However, it can be:

• a simple, practical approach to stress-test what you are currently doing, or plan to do, to reach your vital goals.

The scope and aim of testing may include:

* where you're heading and how you'll get there

* what must go right, and not go wrong, to get you there

(e.g think about your organisation's climate change goals or UN Sustainable

Development Goal commitments).

• a reliable, proven way to surface and handle 'killer' uncertainty and threats that lie beyond the scope of 'risk' management. That way you gain vital lead time to prepare for what is coming to you. Whether you like what is coming to you, or not.

MISTAKE 2: Using foresight ONLY for 'long-term' and strategic goals - and making heavy work of it

• Foresight techniques are hugely powerful in making and implementing better decisions in any crisis situation where you MUST take effective action, against the clock. Examples range from gaining lead time on implementing change (e.g. implementing new supplier arrangements from procurements) when time and other resources are running out, through to handling demanding negotiations (e.g. hostage situations).

Any approach or method (there are a few) can be made very practical, simple and enjoyable! Heavy lifting is not needed. However the results and insights are typically heavy hitting and fuel your success especially in areas where your competitors will be caught short. Or where you are badly exposed but didn't see it.

MISTAKE 3: Limiting 'Foresight' tests and exercises to senior leadership

Foresight exercises and tests are a well-known source of competitive advantage. Therefore, they are often conducted as an almost 'secret' activity and usually confined to senior leaders and those chosen by them to contribute.

This approach is important and valuable.

However, we miss out so much by not sharing and foresight effective approach (and techniques) more generously e.g. with frontline, operational, change and tactical teams. An effective foresight faciltator will always help you to find an approach that 'fits' you and your specific team well.

Conclusion

Much of the world failed to see - and to prepare for - the coming of Covid 19. But not everyone. Some organisations were tapped into, and preparing for, 'Disease B' as it was being called. By 2018 and in some cases even earlier. They made themselves more resilient

Often we can't help what comes at us or to us in our personal and organisational lives.

But unlike my friend Suzanne and I, there is no reason to not 'see it coming'.

When we are in the fog, or signals are confusing, we really can prepare and gain lead time to take the heat out of a crisis. And to come through well.