Strengthening Risk Assessment and Decision-Making in Critical Situations

There is increasing attention on the prevention and handling of critical events in society. This highlights the need for enhanced expertise in risk assessment and operational decision-making. To ensure an effective response in Stockholm, Copenhagen, Helsinki, or Oslo, a thorough evaluation of events and continuous adaptation of resources and strategies are crucial. Success requires strengthening cooperation between departments, units, and especially across national borders.

Originally published in "Aktuell S?kerhet" on 08.06.23 (link)

RESPONDING

A group of individuals gathers in a square, and the first police patrol arrives. If stones are thrown at the police, and a newly graduated police officer fires a weapon that hits a 15-year-old boy, the situation can escalate, and the video of the incident may spread on social media, triggering large riots.

In another case, a threatening person appears outside a shopping center. A security guard observes the individual, but several children in a passing school class are injured by the mentally ill person, who uses a knife to harm several people. The security company receives criticism for not taking action, and the police are not alerted. In a third scenario, an explosion occurs at a sports event.

Two individuals had left backpacks with explosives inside the stadium. These individuals had managed to pass through security control by claiming to work at the stadium. Security personnel are criticized afterward, and several people are seriously injured.

RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment is based on three factors: available information, representativeness, and psychological anchoring. How did the caller perceive the group in the square, and what experience do the involved parties have in judging such situations? And, importantly, how does the police officer view the youths in the square upon arrival? Does one of the boys remind him of his brother? What about the person with the knife outside the shopping center? It turns out to be a young woman.

The individuals entering with backpacks seem friendly and approachable. Both present forged ID cards to gain entry, but security personnel felt that something was off.

INCREASING DEMANDS - AND A NEW INCIDENT

In these examples, we see the need to focus on both risk assessment and decision-making. A thorough risk assessment takes into account all relevant factors, which can range from evaluating the situation and environment to assessing the individuals involved and their history.

Risk assessment is a process that thoroughly evaluates potential risks in a given situation and seeks to manage them in the best possible way. This process involves multiple stakeholders, from the operations center receiving messages about the people gathering in the square to the patrol arriving at the scene.

The day after the explosion at the sports event, a serious hostage situation arises in downtown Stockholm. How can the police negotiators persuade the individual to release the hostages? The situation is deadlocked, and the risk is very high.

CHALLENGING FRONTLINE DECISIONS

It is crucial to consider all alternatives and potential outcomes when assessing risks and to take into account the legal and ethical aspects of the decision. Decisions made at the frontline, in the initial stages of a situation, can have a significant impact on how the situation unfolds.

Therefore, having a clear and systematic approach to risk assessment and decision-making is vital, allowing for the best decisions in situations where clarity may be difficult to achieve.

In the justice sector, a profound understanding of risk assessment and frontline decision-making is essential to protect both individuals and society as a whole. Therefore, sufficient training and guidance in this area are of utmost importance, utilizing the best available resources to ensure making the right decisions.

However, decision-making is a complex and critical task that places significant demands, driven by how we assess risk. Accessibility, representativeness, and anchoring are essential factors in risk assessment.

We assess risk based on the information available to us and our knowledge of the area. Therefore, the quality of education in the justice sector is of great significance. Furthermore, we consider our experience, evaluating what we encounter based on past experiences. The last factor is psychological anchoring, which relates to how we perceive individuals and the available information.

The challenge is that we often have to make decisions of significant importance based on limited experience and gut feelings. Hence, it is crucial that we practice and train to handle various situations, where we may need to employ different measures.

The most crucial resource we have in such situations is communication and our ability to understand the situation.

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The article is based on the Scandinavian book "Handbook of Conflict Management in the Justice Sector: Risk Assessment and Decision-Making" (Cappelen Damm Akademisk, 2022) by Ole Andre Br?ten and Anette Falkum