26th October 2024: Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Strike Back?

Any miscalculation by the criminal Zionist regime and its sponsors will definitely result in Iran employing equipment and weapons that will blow harsher and more painful blows to the worn and rotting body of the Zionist regime in the next responses, the ministry warned.

(Ministry of Defence of Iran Tasnim News Agency 2nd October 2024)

26th October 2024: Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Strike Back?

Introduction

Tehran Times; 2nd October 2024

In an official statement from the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), it was reported that these missile strikes are part of Operation "True Promise II," executed under the codename "Oh Messenger of God!" and directed against security and intelligence targets in Israel.

The IRGC issued its statement just minutes after the operation began, stating: “The great Islamic community, the noble and martyred Iranian nation, moments ago, after a period of restraint in the face of the violation of the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the assassination of the martyred fighter, Dr Ismail Haniyeh, by the Zionist regime, and under the country's right to legitimate defence according to the United Nations Charter, has responded to the intensification of the regime's atrocities, supported by the United States in the massacre in Lebanon and Gaza. In this context, and in tribute to the martyrdom of the great fighter, leader of the Resistance Axis, and proud Secretary-General of Hezbollah, the martyr Hassan Nasrallah, as well as the brave commander and senior advisor of the IRGC in Lebanon, Major General Seyyed Abbas Nilforoushan, the IRGC Aerospace Force has launched dozens of ballistic missiles against key military and security targets in the heart of the occupied territories.”

Attack

On the 1st October the Islamic Republic of Iran launched numerous stand-off weapons at the State of Israel. The results of the attack were minimal to Israel with only one recorded death of a Palestinian in the West Bank who was hit by debris from an intercepted missile.

According to the Tehran Times, who claimed that, Iranian media, citing sources close to the operation, claimed that “over 80% of the missiles in the first wave hit their intended targets." Additionally, it was reported that the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, was completely destroyed in the attack, although this information has not yet been confirmed or denied by colonial authorities, who have prohibited any photographs showing the damage caused by the Iranian operation.

Another target of the Iranian missiles was the Negev Air Base, located in the southern part of the occupied territories. This base house’s the two squadrons of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force and was scheduled to receive a third squadron once more units were delivered. Iranian media sources have reported that the facility was "completely destroyed" during the attack.

Iran claimed that they used hypersonic missiles in the attack. The Israeli Post Attack Recovery (PAR) denied that hypersonic missiles were used by Iran.

The Times of Israel after military censorship cleared an image from the attack for publication. It showed the military air base Nevatim and a large hole in an aircraft hangar roof which had been caused by an Iranian missile.

The Islamic Republic used that same image in the Tasnim News Agency claiming, “satellite images reveal significant damage to an Israeli military airbase housing US-made F-35 fighter jets, following a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles in retaliation for high-profile assassinations.” A total Iranian lie.

Why did Iran Attack Israel?

Iran had suffered humiliation since the death of ?the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on the 31st July 2024 in Tehran as a guest of the government of Tehran. There were other losses of key personnel who were serving in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or having prominent positions in the Iranian proxy armies that surround Israel.

Iran claimed that Israel assassinated Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31st July 2024. In its massive airstrikes on Beirut, Lebanon, on the 27th September 2024 Israel also assassinated Iranian Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who acted as Iranian military advisor in Lebanon, and the announcement of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who was killed on the 28th September 2024.

Iran claimed that their deaths, although painful, would still allow the proxies to continue and strive believing the alleged armies to be stronger than before because of their deaths.

The Iranian government politicians and IRGC officers all vowed that if Israel retaliated then Iran would also ensure that the next attack by Iran would crush the Israeli’s.

The Iranians have named their attacks on Israel as “Operation True Promise” and “Operation True Promise II” both were unsuccessful against Israel resulting in humiliation for Iran.

Unlike Iran, Israel is not an empty vessel that just makes a noise. When Israel states that they will strike their enemies and hurt them they do so, and successfully. But these type of statements by Iranian authorities do not stop Israel, they still retaliate and with a force that causes damage to Iran.

After the attack on Israel by Iran on the 1st October 2024, the Israeli’s and the United States vowed retaliation. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House, “We have made clear that there will be consequences, severe consequences, for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case.”

Iran was quick to respond threatening, ‘Do Not Clash with Iran’

The Americans moved further assets into the region should Iran hit back. The United States said on the 13th October 2024 that it would send to Israel an advanced anti-missile system – and US troops to operate it – in a bid to bolster the country’s air defences following missile attacks by Iran. The US also increased its military presence in the Middle East by several thousand troops, sending an array of fighter aircraft and other aircraft to bolster the protection of US forces and allies. That decision brings the total number of American troops in the region to as many as 43,000, including more than a dozen US Navey vessels.

Iran who has been rallying for the United States to depart from the Middle East continues to throw petrol on the flames which not only keeps the Americans in the Region but also boosts their presence.

Talks of various targets surfaced on open-source platforms but in reality, no one knew how the two countries would agree to striking Iran.

Some outlets claimed that the two would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and some believed that the attack would be on Iran’s oil industry. President Joe Biden was reportedly not in favour of damaging the Iranian nuclear industry and was unsure about the oil sector. Another train of thought was that Iranian military targets would be the central point of giving Iran a bloody nose and make them sit back and realise that they are not as strong as they believe themselves to be.

Hezbollah Attempted Assassination of the Israeli Prime Minister

To make matters worse Hezbollah on the 19th October 2024 launched three missiles at the central seaside town of Caesarea targeting the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home.

Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement, “The agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake.” An Axios report said, “This is the first time since the beginning of the war that a target affiliated directly with Netanyahu has been hit.”

A clear attempt to assassinate an officially elected head of state. Iran may think that having its proxy assassinate a member of the Israeli cabinet then they would be able to save their number one ally, whereas in reality it does nothing but antagonise the conflict.

This incident highlights the complex and often covert nature of Iran's influence in the region.

In regards to the blaming finger being pointed at Iran let us not forget that the Deputy Chief of Staff for the IRGC Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan was recently killed in Beirut. Part of his terms of reference was to oversee and advise on operations using their proxies. Just after his demise the head of the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani's came to Beirut after the Deputy Chief of staff was killed.

The Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem had reportedly been relocated to Tehran. An Iranian source also claimed that Qassem's transfer to Tehran was carried out under the orders of senior Iranian officials.? The relocation was taken as a precautionary measure should Israel attempt to assassinate him according to the Jerusalem Post. Qassem had left Beirut on the same day on an Iranian plane, accompanied by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to Damascus, and from there, he continued to Tehran.

The move allows the Iranians to control the Hezbollah group through Qassem without him being in direct danger from Israel.

Iran denied any part in the operation against the Israeli PM stating it was all to do with Hezbollah. A spokesman for the permanent mission of Iran at the United Nations in New York told the Wall Street Journal that the “action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon."

On the 22nd October 2024 A statement by the head of Hezbollah's media office, Mohammad Afif and published in the Jerusalem Post declared that, “Hezbollah takes the full and sole responsibility for targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's house.” In the Iranian Tasnim News (propaganda) outlet they published a report confirming this.

(TEHRAN) Tasnim: Refuting the allegations made by Israel that Iran has been involved in a recent drone attack on Netanyahu’s residence, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the Zionist regime is used to falsehood. Asked about the claims that Iran has had a role in the drone attack on Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence near Tel Aviv, Baqaei said on Saturday night, “The Zionist regime has been founded upon lies and distortion of facts.” The Iranian spokesman added that spreading lies has become an ordinary and usual approach adopted by the Zionist regime and its “criminal leaders”.

It’s almost as though there is a dedicated book on the shelf with written comments inside for different occasions. The book with its title “Iranian Involvement and How to Deny It.” The book never has time to have dust settle on it.

Threats and Intimidation

Iran said that any other country that assists the United States in attacking Iran will be made accountable. Those who had American assets in the country would be made answerable should those assets be used against Iran. The Iranians in their statement were affirming that they would attack American bases in other countries should that country allow the United States or in their assistance to Israel to serve as a location to attack the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian Foreign Minister addressed the American President Joe Biden directly stating, “potential U.S. involvement in an Israeli response will not go unnoticed, Iran’s Araqchi warned Biden.”

“Anybody with knowledge or understanding of ‘how and when Israel was going to attack Iran’, and/or providing the means and backing for such folly, should logically be held accountable for any possible causality,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

There was the usual threats by the Tehran government in propaganda outlets along with threats from senior Iranian military personnel.

The Iranians also attempted to put pressure on Israel by stating that they had identified targets in the country should Israel strike back at them for the missile barrage on the 1st October and the attempted assassination on the Israeli PM, which Iran had denied any involvement.

In the Iranian Students News Agency, (ISNA) an article appeared on the 21st October 2024. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that Iran has “identified all its targets” in the occupied territories for a retaliatory attack against Israel.

Araghchi made the remarks in an interview with the Turkish broadcaster NTV on the 19th October amid Israeli threats to launch strikes on Iran.

“Any attack against Iran means crossing its red line. We will not leave it unanswered. A necessary response will be given to any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or a similar raid,” he said.

“Now, we have identified all our targets there (in the occupied lands) and a similar attack will be carried out on them.” Iran would be hoping that the threat and that they had chosen their retaliatory targets before Israel had even struck Iran would be enough to deter the Israelis directly striking Iran.

On the one hand Iran does not want to be seen as an easy target to be attacked, however, on the other it has to send a message to its followers and supporters that it has the ability to stand up to its foes after all the rhetoric over the years and Iran’s ability to destroy Israel and fight the United States. In reality with an inferior army, navy and air force Iran may have difficulty standing up to the task against either of their two enemies.

Iran’s air force has an aging fleet led by F-14 Tomcats and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets from the Cold War, but they would be no match for Israel’s F-35Is and its air defences. That means Iran again would need to rely on missiles and long-range drones. Sanctions do not permit upgrades to make them effective.

Hormuz Strait

Iran has frequently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz over the past few decades, especially during times of heightened tension with other countries. These threats have been made in response to various geopolitical events, such as sanctions, military actions, and regional conflicts. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, so any threat to close it has significant implications for international trade and energy markets. Iran again threatened closure on the 21st October 2024. Iran claimed that if there was a possibility of an attack by United States backed Israel against Iran then this could be a possible response to an attack against them. The Iranians stated, “this warning is not a hollow threat, but a calculated response to the escalating tensions and an attempt to deter further aggression.”

The United States has its Fifth fleet operating out of Bahrain which would have a say in whether the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz or not as it would interfere with world and Arabian commercial shipping. The Strait of Hormuz which is about 21 miles (33 kilometres) wide at its narrowest point, with a shipping lane just 2 miles (3 kilometres) wide in either direction. Given how vital it is for global energy transport, even a minor disruption can have serious global implications. By attempting to close the Hormuz Strait would only serve to raise an escalation in the Gulf and conflict with Iran.

Iran Attempts to Gather Middle East Support

Along with the threats and intimidation the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi embarked on a regional tour in an intense diplomatic effort to prevent the conflict from spreading across the region. The Iranian top diplomat visited nine capitals in two weeks and talked with United Nations chief Antonio Guterres on the 15th October 2024.

Araghchi visited Lebanon’s capital Beirut a week after Nasrallah’s death.

The minister then went to Damascus where he met with his Syrian counterpart and President Bashar Assad, a close ally of Tehran. Araghchi also travelled to Saudi Arabia — whose ties with Iran have warmed in the past year — as well as Qatar, Iraq and Oman, the latter of which has long mediated indirect talks between Iran and the United States.

He then flew to Jordan, which has complicated relations with Tehran, then to Egypt, for the first trip there by an Iranian foreign minister since 2013.

Tehran-based international relations expert Ahmad Zeidabad said Araghchi “repeats the words of the military,” including that if Israel attacks, “Iran will give a painful response.” He continued, “Iran wants Arab countries to turn away from the Israeli axis.”

“The Iranian foreign minister seeks to urgently bring together the policies of Iran and Arab countries” and to “reduce the military adventurism of Israeli leaders,” the government’s official newspaper Iran Daily said on the 17th October 2024. “His diplomatic efforts aim to create peace and put an end to Israel’s crimes in the region,” it added. Iran desperately wanted the last word.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said Muslim nations and governments across the world are expected to stand up, alongside Iran, against the Israeli regime. Muslim countries should use every means necessary to end the relentless oppression of the Palestinian nation, the IRGC said in a statement on Wednesday, on the occasion of the first anniversary of Israel’s massacre of Palestinians at the Mamdani Hospital in the besieged Gaza Strip.

“We expect all Muslim nations and Islamic governments to rise alongside the great nation of Iran and the fighters of Islamic Resistance in a united front against the Zionist regime,” the IRGC said.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated, "If Muslim countries act as one, the Zionist regime will not dare to commit violations so easily, nor will the U.S. and Western countries be able to support it." He also said, "Strengthening friendly and amicable relations between regional countries, and expanding regional cooperation, guarantee a shared vision and language to solve our region's problems," Pezeshkian explained. "This also provides a platform for collective development, promoting the welfare, peace, and comfort of our nations."

Iran has in the past attempted to create a Holy War of Muslim nations against Israel and the United States. The IRGC’s attempt to gather Muslim support against Israel is a clear indication that this form of Iranian ideology is a positive, strong and distinct threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran. If Iran was to succeed then the whole of the Middle East would fall under the influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

26th October 2024 Days of Repentance

At 0215 hrs Iranian local time on the 26th October 2024 the State of Israel attacked the Islamic State of Iran for their 1st October attack on Israel. By 0600 hrs local, Israeli military said, the assault had been completed, with “all goals achieved” and all aircraft returning safely home. Israel dubbed the campaign “Days of Repentance,” a reference to the recent Yom Kippur holiday. It said dozens of IAF aircraft, including fighter jets, refuelers and spy planes, participated in the “complex” operation some 1,600 kilometres from Israel.

The targets were the Iranian ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles; destroying air defence batteries protecting them. The strikes, which the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation Kan said reflect capabilities developed over two decades by Iran but being neutralised. Thus, indicating a much greater freedom of operation for Israeli military aircraft in striking Iran if the current conflict continues to escalate, as well as a setback in Tehran’s ability to continuously fire missiles at the Jewish state, which Jerusalem apparently hopes will serve as a deterrent against further attacks on the Jewish state.

The strikes targeted sites that reportedly include the secretive Parchin base near Tehran, which was used in the past for research and development of Iranian nuclear weapons, as well as a factory that manufactures drones.

The air-defence systems were Russia-made S-300 air-defence systems at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport and at the Malad missile base near the capital.

The strikes hit at least 12 planetary mixers used to make solid fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles, reports said, with some putting the number of mixers struck at 20. It was estimated that the factory would take at least two years to repair. US officials said Iran can’t produce the mixers on its own and must acquire them from China, which may take more than a year. The report also said the development would limit Tehran’s ability to supply ballistic missiles to its proxies, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group and Yemen’s Houthis.

Each heavy fuel mixer destroyed was estimated to be at least two million dollars and about twenty mixers of this type were destroyed. They were believed to have been the "backbone of Iran's missile industry" which Israel had “put out of service.”

David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security research group, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank. The two experts were asked by the Times of Israel to view commercial imagery on the attack. The two agreed separately that “The strikes appear to be highly accurate.”

The damage inflicted on Iran by Israel will take some time to filter through but the humiliation, yet again, for Iran grows. Israel has stated that the operation is now complete with the United States president saying that he hoped that was it as he desperately tries to stop his country being dragged into a Middle Eastern conflict.

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s statements

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi shared excerpts from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s letter to the UN Secretary-General and members of the Security Council regarding the recent attack. Araghchi stated in his letter, “While Iran's air defence system intercepted most of the missiles, four Iranian army officers bravely sacrificed their lives to protect the national security of their country and were martyred.”

Iran’s parliament speaker highlighted the success of the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) in countering the Israeli regime’s aggressions, emphasizing that the regime has consistently found itself mocked at the international level in confrontations with the Islamic country.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf praised the vigilance and dedication of the military and IRGC forces, stating on the 27th October 2024 that the apartheid Zionist regime has consistently been ridiculed at global arena in any confrontation with the proud nation of Iran.

The speaker drew comparisons between Iran’s recent Operation True Promise II and the Israeli regime’s recent military actions, noting that the comparison is a clear indicator of Iran's robust defence capabilities. Qalibaf went on to say that the Zionist regime has achieved nothing but genocide and the massacre of defenceless women and children in Gaza and Lebanon, adding that the Tel Aviv regime lacks credibility on the global stage.

The Iranian Tehran Times wrote: "After weeks of psychological warfare and threats of a devastating, surprise attack targeting everything from nuclear facilities to oil infrastructure and even assassinations of officials, the Israeli operation ultimately amounted to mostly unsuccessful strikes on just a few military sites," said Ehsan Salehi, a West Asia analyst and CEO of a leading Iranian newspaper. "The world watched as Iran successfully targeted Israeli assets and then effortlessly defended its own territory against the subsequent response. This outcome is undoubtedly a difficult pill for both the West and Israel to swallow."

“Iran has the right and the duty to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression,” Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement, citing Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. However, the regime did not immediately vow to respond.

What was not heard was the normal rhetoric from high-ranking government officials or senior members of the IRGC vowing that revenge would be soon and at a moment of their choosing crushing those who had attacked them as they have done in the past.

All was quiet on that front.

Iran needs a program ‘now’ to save as much of their proxies as they can. The ability to strike Israel would be ridiculously flawed and open to escalation as we have observed in the previous two attempts. Israel, on the other hand, has shown the ability to strike back, and severely irrespective of what the Iranian propaganda informs its followers and supporters. The Arab News quoted Iran’s military when they stated that “a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would trump any retaliation against Israel.” That is not likely to happen soon as Israel slowly demolishes these Iranian assets.

Comments by Iran such as: “Thanks to the timely performance of the country’s air defences, the attacks caused limited damage and a few radar systems were damaged.” And, “A large number of missiles were intercepted, and enemy aircraft were prevented from entering the country’s airspace.” Accusing Israel that, “Israeli aircraft were reduced to firing a small number of long-range missiles with very light warheads from a distance.” The Israeli light warheads did more damage than Iran’s much larger warheads.

Should Iran manage to save their ever-depleting proxies that would be the only way they could exact revenge, but currently that is no guarantee.

The Iranians could embrace their nuclear program and go for a breakout whereby they produce a nuclear weapon to deter any possibly attack on Iran. Iran’s MEHR News Agency on the 27th October 2024 quoted Iranian MP Mohammad Reza Sabbaghian who said, "I condemn the Zionist regime's cowardly aggression against Iran, which was carried out with the direct and indirect support of the US and Europe."

"In response to the aggressor Zionist regime and the United States, we must consider [achieving] the defence weapons that these aggressors and bullies have, and the defence and nuclear doctrine of our country should be revised," he stressed.

However, Israel and the United States have made it very clear in the past that they would never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. This was stressed in the latest attack by Israel on the 26th October 2024 when Israel attacked a building in Parchin which in the past was used as a testing activities during the Amad Plan, Iran’s defunct nuclear weapons development program. A warning yet again.

Conclusion

Retaliation by Iran against any foe is limited. They have a large missile and drone armoury built entirely for ‘defensive’ purposes. In reality that’s it. There proxies are being degraded by Israeli forces and in reality, it is true that they will always be present but in the same reality not being as strong and threatening as they have been in the past. According to Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on the 27th October 2024, “Iran is no longer able to effectively use its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel.” Iran has very few options when it comes to revenge against any attack against them.

Iranian claims of when attacking Israel that 90%+ of their strikes were accurate and hitting their designated targets are incorrect. Again, in reality most are intercepted or shot down. Those that do manged to get through any defensives cause either little or no sever damage at all. Two strikes against Israel with approximately 500 unmanned stand-off weapons achieved nothing. Its not exactly a success story.

Geography limits the options for a direct Iranian military attack. Iran shares no border with Israel, and the two countries are some 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) apart at the shortest distance. While the size of Iran’s ballistic arsenal is unknown, analysts said it risks being exhausted. Since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, Iran has felt vulnerable and reliant on missiles and drones.

Israel has modern and successful military capabilities with a solid United States and other strong allies. Iran has an aging military aircraft fleet, a navy that does not cause any concern and a huge army that it cannot be used directly. Russia an ally of Iran has its own problems with the Ukraine and China another ally is to far away and only interested in cheap oil.

However, as we have seen with Israel it has an abundance of methods to strike Iran and their proxies. Their army, air force and navy are far superior than Iran’s. Their intelligence services are one of the finest in the world. More importantly Israel does not boast or make large and loud threats. They are more subtle in their rhetoric when stating any retaliatory attacks. Their actions are louder than words.

How and if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Tehran government respond will be another chapter in the conflict which is ongoing in the Middle East.

The leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran should be careful and not get their ambitions and capabilities mixed up.

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Paul Ashley

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