23 More Predictions for 2023 - The Gentleman edition!

Okay, here we go with round 2.?Last week I shared 23+ predictions for 2023 from female thought leaders in our space. Today, I am back with 23 more predictions from the gentleman in our space.

Sreenath Reddy from Intentwise starts us off with some predictions about the Amazon Ads space.?

“Amazon's ad revenue will exceed $50B in 2023, I also think that Amazon will launch full-blown bidding algorithms (like Google did) for all of Sponsored Ads.”

Sreenath and I had a long talk about 亚马逊 offering a service where sellers can just input products, set budgets, and forget about it. Many of the features of Sponsored Display use machine learning that could power such a system, but I don’t think that is something that will be seen in 2023.

Liran Hirschkorn ?is a regular blogger and LinkedIn influencers who is always on the cutting edge of Amazon and its tech enology.?For a few years, Liran has been sharing about video and he thinks that video is everywhere and greater use of UGC as Amazon provides brands more opportunities to engage with customers via TikTok-style videos.

“more brands implement dtc with the power of buy with prime and Amazon tools to drive greater web traffic and conversions?“

I can’t disagree with Liran as video was one of my top product releases for 2022 and will clearly have an impact on how DTC and brands develop in 2023.?

Joe Shelerud is all about data.?That is what I love about his posts, he uses data to drive home his point.

“There will be an increased focus on measuring return on advertising spend as businesses review their budgets. Budgets will be allocated to advertising that can be directly tied to business results and measuring the true return of the full funnel through tools like Amazon Marketing Cloud will become an expectation.”

Similar to the comment above, I agree and see AMC as a major product for brands and agencies to master in 2023.

Bradley Sutton had a few off-the-wall lines like, “we will see the first NFT projects that incorporate Amazon Private Label products in their community.?“?I don’t know much about NFT projects but I guess this could happen.

“Amazon Live Shopping will be 5X what it was in 2022 as more Americans hop on the Live Shopping bandwagon.”

I have seen the value of Amazon Live for a number of years.?Amazon has made a lot of investments trying to find the right mix to get this product off the ground.?As we heard from the ladies, social influences and shopping will be themed, I am not sure where live will play into this.

Brandon Young takes a look at the economy to drive home his prediction.

“2023 is the year of the next great recession. In those times, when money is tight, unemployment is high, and people don't have confidence, a lot of categories will suffer. I predict that eCommerce will remain relatively flat or even grow, even during a down economy. Grocery and discounted goods that provide better value for less money will do well as consumers tighten up their wallets.”

I agree that the economy will play into how the year plays out but I need to see Q4 numbers before I am sure how everything is impacted. ?

I recently reconnected with Bryan Gildenberg at #unBoxed and really enjoy it when I get a chance to tap into his brain. His prediction sheds a little bit of light on why I am waiting to see what happens.?

“I think the consumer will surprise pundits with adaptability and resilience in the face of inflation- American consumers have so many more choices today than they used to.?Retailers that lead consumers in these new choices will win a disproportionate share.?The economy won't be as bad as we fear.”

Brian also had a prediction that Jeff Bezos will return, ala Disney!?

I wanted to lean into the brands a bit so I reached out to Matt Kubancik ???? .?Matt has created an amazing challenger brand that is outselling 耐克 , 阿迪达斯 , and more.?

The industry gives rise to Sensible, conservative, bootstrapped start ups that solve vacuums in e-commerce v.s. “Sexy fast company, VC propped up DTC brands that bleed money”. Examples would be like backtrack solving sellers fba returns and liquidations issues.?

With all this pressure on price and margin, Chad Rubin shares.

“Amazon brands will move from traditional pricing to dynamic pricing - and AI will be at the forefront of this revolution”

Chad has been right in the past so I wouldn’t sleep on this one. I also had several other predictions that focus on price and margin. Maybe AI is part of the answer?

Okay, random fact, Dan Brownsher and I went to high school together.?I was a few years older but we had some mutual friends.?I love when worlds collide.?

“Off-Amazon (DSP, BwP, etc.) will continue to be a big focus. Ad costs will continue to rise. Ad properties will continue to diversify.”

I agree with off-amazon and diversification but I don’t think that means that costs will rise.?Well, I don’t want to discuss costs, I would rather focus on the effectiveness of ads. It's easy to say costs have increased but if the ads are more effective the overall cost of advertising has actually decreased.?

Now, Carl Goedjen Godejen is part of the Amazon Partner Award-winning team at Global Overview , he didn’t have predictions for me as much as themes that he believes brands should focus on.

“Share Growth may be the one true measure in '23 - Amazon and Brands in Categories for overall omnichannel success.?“

One other that he shared, and I try to live by is “invest in relationships and people never stop learning, testing and celebrating the success of team and individual." I expect we can all learn a lot from the tests that Carl and his team run.

One product that I covered this month was the release of #AWSCleanRooms.?I had the chance to meet Rio Longacre at Amazon Web Services (AWS) #re:Invent2022 and we had a fascinating conversation on the impact of clean rooms.?

“As this year comes to a close, it’s clear the big trend looming for 2023 is “interoperability.” As clean rooms become ubiquitous, many large brands are starting to realize they will most likely need multiple clean rooms to activate across the various walled gardens.?"

As data become a bigger need for brands and agencies, both Rio and I see the emergence of “Customer Data as a Service “—?Customer Data as a service (DaaS). Rio believes that in 2023 we will see leading companies lean into Customer Data as a Service to excel at leveraging their data to create new products and revenue streams.?I agree!

John Ghiorso is someone I have followed online for a while, his company works with larger CPG brands and agencies which gives him a unique perspective.

“Unified real-time strategy - More frequently, brands will start viewing retail media as an interconnected advertising channel and not a handful of unrelated platforms. They will use unified real-time optimization to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities between the various networks. To accomplish this, you will see more centralized retail media teams, both at agencies and large CPGs."

Speaking with two colleagues in the space, I have provided the recommendation to get brand experience.?I think it will be critical in the future.?It's great to have the agency experience but working directly for a brand provides you with a different perspective.?

In 2022, I had the opportunity to speak on stage with? Jér?me de Guigné , I didn’t know him before this experience but enjoyed getting to know him and his team. They are doing great things by helping brands expand into new markets.

“new markets should open in 2023, one that I am specifically looking forward to is South Africa: English speaking market (so easy to enter in terms of content) and the first step in Africa, which will be a huge opportunity in the years to come. I am not expecting huge sales from day 1 but more the beginning of a bigger journey to address a new and vast audience. “

One of the things that have made his agency different is they seek local help, so I will predict that he will also open up an office in South Africa in 2023.?Who knows, maybe I can head down and speak with him if this all comes through!

Earlier I spoke about an award-winning company, well, Will Fisher and his company Amerge has won two awards each year for the past two years.?I met Will at #cannes2022 and we had the chance to bond over yachts?and rose!

“I believe Amazon Marketing Cloud is going to become the no.1 tool used for brands when reviewing Ad effectiveness. Right now, agencies like ourselves are building up some insightful theories and case studies to test the true value of Amazon Ads and drive better measurement for brands.”

As my number 2 tool in 2022, I agree that its importance will only grow as new datasets and signals are added.

James Thomson seems to agree, with the cookie depreciation by Google (targeted for 2024) and the actions already taken by Apple, first-party data capabilities are going to be essential.?

“Amazon will become the single largest and most important advertising platform -- not just online, but?also compete with traditional print & tv ad dollars, through its Amazon DSP platform.”

Amazon is well positioned for this and has made many of these same services available to brands who are not on the DSP with self-service Sponsored Display.?

Russ Dieringer and I have know each other for years as he is one of the industry leaders when it comes to CPG research. ?

“The eGrocery market emerges from its slump in '22, bringing with it a renewed sense of optimism on behalf of investors, retail peers and consumer brands. This might include Instacart and Gopuff defying the odds by going public, a major acquisition by Amazon Fresh to reignite its growth, and/or Kroger/Albertsons getting through antitrust scrutiny and forming a grocery (retail media ?? ) powerhouse!”

Now that’s a lot to unpack but if I was to sum it up, the eGrocery space will see a lot of change in 2023 as everyone looks to see how they can expand their market share in this category.

I am one of the first to admit that I don’t know Europe as well as I know the US when it comes to Amazon. As you get into specific markets, I know even less.?That is why I have enjoyed translating and following, Florian Nottorf .

“Amazon DSP will become an even bigger gold mine for all data enthusiasts. What this means? Reports such as the Search Query Performance report will become more accessible and insightful when they already are.”

This follows the theme that data will continue to grow in importance as we look to the new year.

If you want to know how to work with Amazon as a 1P vendor, Martin Heubel , is one person you want to follow. He posts regularly providing insights and suggestions on how to work with Amazon.?

“Brands that prioritize the demand for sustainability in relation to their profit targets will be among the winners in 2023."?

I clearly see signals that would back this prediction.?Amazon has tested a “climate-friendly badge” and consumers are eager to support brands with eCommerce-friendly packaging. Shoppers welcome products that reduce their environmental footprint.?

As a long-time veteran of Amazon, Stefan Haney knows how to look past the present and into the future, but he reminds us that in challenging financial times, customers will look for high-value, attractive products (like the supply.co).

"Skilled operators who can find cost efficiencies with rising supply chain costs and increased fees will be the winner."

So, this boils down to brands being smart about managing their costs and margins.

We haven’t had any bold predictions yet, so Jason Landro decided to stick his neck out and make one.

Amazon will make a major acquisition, potentially one that is a public company, while prices are relatively inexpensive due to market conditions.

Jason sees Buy with Prime as a signal for the future and thinks this acquisition could play into those tools and skill sets.

Finally, John T. Shea Shea shared some thoughts about Amazon Insights.

In 2023, brands will be rich with insights but have not idea how to act on them. A huge opportunity exists for brands to integrate insights data into business workflows across new product innovation, SKU-prioritization, pricing, content, ads etc.. etc..

And with that, we have a wrap on our 2023 predictions.?Thank you to all who participated, it was fun to connect with so many industry leaders and discuss the future.?What do you see coming down the road??How will impact your business??Drop a comment below and let me know.