21 Big Ideas that will change the world and the GCC in 2021

No one saw 2020 coming. At the close of 2019, economists talked about the prospects of economic diversification in the GCC, Dubai was gearing up for Expo 2020, the exhibition that was supposed to turn the economy around, and Saudi had just allowed tourists to visit for the first time ever. 

Covid-19 happened instead. 

The coronavirus — first described in January as a mysterious, flu-like ailment making the rounds in China — brought the global economy to a standstill. Millions lost their jobs, and over 1.4 million people lost their lives around the world. Many of us went home, and stayed there. Some expats have still not made it home. 

2020 tested our resilience, forcing the world to change on the fly how it lives and works. As we near 2021, with the tenuous promise of a suite of vaccines, we face new tests: We will need to decide what kind of post-pandemic world we want to build, for ourselves and for future generations, including the recovery of 17 million full time jobs lost across Arab countries and the fight against poverty, that’s now affecting a quarter of the population.

Every December, LinkedIn editors ask our community of Influencers, Top Voices and frequent contributors to share the Big Ideas they believe will define the year ahead. This year, in the shadow of a once-in-a-century pandemic, we offer a selection of predictions and thoughts on where we go from here — at work, at home and everywhere in between. 

This is by no means a complete list, and we invite you to join us! What Big Ideas do you think will emerge in the year ahead? Share your thoughts in the comments or publish a post, article or video on LinkedIn with #BigIdeas2021.

Authors: Salma Altantawy, Lynn Chouman; Editor: Sandrine Chauvin, Scott Olster.

1. Yes, we’ll have a vaccine. No, it won’t let us out of social distancing

Everyone is hoping that 2021 will bring relief from the Covid-19 crisis, and public health experts believe there’s a reason to be optimistic. “The potential to have a major impact on this pandemic is very real,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease and Research Policy. “And it’s all focused on a vaccine.” 

Middle East countries have started applying for the vaccine though the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) for the preliminary doses, and directly from pharma companies for larger quantities. Some GCC countries have been participating in trials for Chinese vaccines for months. 

But there are some caveats. While the first vaccine candidates are already moving through the approval process, it’s likely we’ll see two or three generations of vaccines over the next few years. A vaccine needs to not only be effective, but also durable — meaning the protection lasts for an extended period of time. And people must be willing to take it.

2. Get ready for global recession, Act II

As a year that’s produced no shortage of surprises comes to a close, economists are already signaling a big one for 2021: This global recession may only be the opening act.

The initial economic downturn — induced by synchronous global shutdowns as the pandemic proliferated — has led to conditions that now expose an underlying, more fundamental recession, according to economist Ernie Tedeschi. The signs? Industries that weren’t directly affected by the health crisis are now experiencing job losses, business failures and declines in spending; more layoffs that were originally classified as temporary are being classified as permanent; and the rate of long-term unemployment — a disturbing hallmark of the Great Recession — is on the rise.

The implication: A “double-dip” recession is the greatest risk for 2021, according to economist Campbell Harvey. Economist Mohamed El-Erian agrees, deeming the risk of a subsequent recession “high and rising,” based on global data he’s watching from the manufacturing and services sectors.

Such economic jargon has human implications. The United Nations is appealing for $35 billion to support its humanitarian work, projecting that a record 235 million people will need its assistance in 2021, almost a 40% jump from this year. "We won't get a second chance to make the right choice," said Mark Lowcock, the UN's under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs.

“The long ascent out of this year’s deep recession will be uneven, uncertain — and prone to setbacks,” Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, told LinkedIn News. “The road to strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth will be long and difficult.”

3. The GCC macro environment will remain tough

The GCC will get on the recovery path in 2021, with the Saudi economy expected to grow at 3.1% and the UAE at 3.3% according to the IMF. The macro environment will however remain tough, as the double shock of oil price volatility and economic consequences of the pandemic will still be felt.

“The UAE has enough resources to maintain its fiscal consolidation plans in 2021,” said Alessia Berardi, Head of the Macro and Strategy Research Department for Emerging Markets at Amundi in an interview with LinkedIn News Gulf. Abu Dhabi is able to support other emirates through transfers, loans or grants to help with projects like Expo 2020 or small business, she added. As for Saudi, she expects demand from the private sector to remain weak, with high unemployment numbers and the increased Value Added Tax (VAT) weighing on consumption. 

In the difficult economic context, vital sectors like banking will be under pressure. "Our base case is that a Covid-19 vaccine will be widely available by about mid-2021 and that the oil price will stabilize at an average of $50 per barrel," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Mohamed Damak. "Without these glimmers of light, things could be even worse for GCC banks."

Will Saudi revise its decision to increase VAT and ease business conditions? Berardi doubts it. Watch the full chat here:

4. Expo 2020 will be pivotal in UAE’s recovery

The anticipated Expo 2020 six-month event in Dubai is now taking place on October 1, 2021 after being postponed due to the pandemic. The economic activity in preparation for the World Expo is a key hope for several industries looking to recover in Dubai, including the property market. “I think in October 2021, when the expo starts, we could see the market changing in a positive way,” said Hussain Sajwani, Chairman of Damac Properties.

Aiming for 25 million visitors, the expo will also further revive the tourism industry with a calendar of events provided by Dubai Tourism in sectors such as architecture, arts, entertainment and technology. Fitch Solutions has predicted a 3.8% growth for its Dubai growth forecast in 2021 due to an uptick in economic activity from Expo next year.

Expo 2020, alongside with the weakness in the US dollar and adopted reforms, should support growth in 2021, said Alessia Berardi, who heads the emerging markets macro and strategy research department at Amundi, in an interview with LinkedIn News Gulf.

5. ‘Black gold’ won’t be dripping

The coronavirus, the PCR test in particular, gave the word ‘negative’ a pivotal role in our lives this year. This word was also powerful in oil markets in 2020, with US crude sinking into sub-zero levels for the first time ever back in April. Aside from this incident, fundamentals have pushed the oil markets to take ‘Covid the hardest of all of the asset classes out there,’ as John Kilduff- founding partner of Again Capital put it in an interview with capital.com. 

Oil markets have however cheered the recent OPEC+ agreement around production quotas, interpreting it as a sign of stability. But price rebounds are unlikely to continue in the first half of 2021, says global energy market observer Cyril Widdershoven, as OECD economies will not manage to recover by that time, and storage will keep building up.

Some experts, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Francisco Blanch, think ‘oil cannot gain significant momentum until the demand for distillate, including jet fuel, recovers.’

From his side, Tariq Al-Rifai, Financial Policy and Economic Development Advisor, sees two possible scenarios for oil prices next year:

‘If it manages to breakout above $50 per barrel, it would give support for a continued rally. If not, the price will quickly fall before being able to recover later in 2021.’

6. Tourism recovery will play a big role in the GCC economic comeback

Tourism is one of the key industries that suffered the crippling impact of the pandemic. Coming into 2020, the Gulf had big plans for tourism as a way to diversify the economy away from declining oil prices; 8.6% of the GCC’s GDP came from tourism, Saudi Arabia started allowing tourists for the first time in September of the past year.

Then came Covid-19, changing plans and estimates on how the industry can make a comeback. However, with hotels in the UAE optimistic about meeting, and exceeding, the 40% occupancy breakeven point, and Saudi keeping its 2021 targets for tourism without revision despite the pandemic. 

Experts predict that tourism will shapeshift into more local travel, maybe even road trip destinations, and that safety and less crowds will be on top of priorities list.

7. Transporting the vaccine will be yet another huge challenge for the aviation industry.

All eyes are on the day an effective Covid-19 vaccine will be available, including the aviation industry, for two reasons; a vaccine will help make global travel safer and more accessible, providing transportation for the vaccine around the world will also help accelerate the industry’s recovery.

Transporting the vaccine will not be an easy challenge for airlines, for one it needs to be stored in a deep-frozen state. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) calls the process the “largest and most complex global logistics operation” ever undertaken, it will be up to governments to ensure the infrastructure and air routes are ready for this phase. 

Following the availability of a vaccine, health passports will become the norm, writes IATA’s Regional Vice President in Africa and the Middle East, Muhammad Ali Albakri on LinkedIn: 

“A digital ‘health passport’ will help travellers store and manage their verified certifications for Covid-19 tests or Covid-19 vaccines. This will be important for governments that are likely to require either verified testing or vaccination proof as a condition of international travel during and after the pandemic.” 

8. The travel industry will go the way of Netflix 

The pandemic wreaked havoc on the travel industry in 2020. International travel all but halted for many countries. Airlines have filed for bankruptcy protection. Traditional tourist hotspots have become coldspots. The travel industry has been forced to rip up big chunks of its playbook and start fresh. 

One idea gaining traction? Travel subscriptions. Costco has partnered with WheelsUp to offer a yearly private jet subscription for US$17,499.99. Tripadvisor is launching a yearly subscription service called Tripadvisor Plus for US$99, which offers access to travel deals and other perks. And some airlines have begun experimenting with travel subscriptions as well, where they offer fixed rate flights in exchange for a secure, continuous source of revenue. 

“In Southeast Asia, we’ve already seen airlines testing the waters with this concept,” says Hannah Pearson, founder of Kuala Lumpur-based travel consulting company Pear Anderson. “AirAsia launched its Unlimited Pass for domestic flights in Malaysia earlier this year — and given that they’ve now rolled it out in Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, we can deduce that it has been a success.” 

Another area Pearson could see taking off? Subscription work-ations, where “hotel chains [offer] flexible bookings and benefits for customers to stay and work out of any of their hotels across the country.” We are starting to this crop up in countries like Singapore, where hotels are now offering specific work packages.

9. Streaming will eat — then transform — the movies

It’s been a devastating year for movie theaters, as many were forced to shut their doors amid the pandemic. But things have been particularly sunny for the streaming business, which became just about the only game in town for Hollywood — and viewers — this year. Studios released highly anticipated movies like Disney’s Mulan straight to streaming. Warner Bros. shook the industry in December when it announced it would release all of its 2021 films on streaming service HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously.

When the COVID-19 crisis subsides, can movie houses find their way back to consumers’ hearts and wallets? Yes, but it’s going to require a few adjustments. 

Better food and less sticky floors likely won’t cut it. “What can a theater offer that you can't get in your living room? Other people,” says NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway. “Comedies are funnier, thrillers are more suspenseful, and horror movies are scarier in a crowd. Theaters need to reimagine themselves as gathering places, as social spaces. A new Marvel movie is an event that can support costume contests [and] marathon viewings of earlier movies.”

Expect the streaming players to muscle in. “Someone will need to provide the capital for theaters to make it through the pandemic and invest in the future of the industry,” Galloway says. “Amazon's rumored interest in AMC is interesting. They could roll theater attendance into Prime, for example, and give customers the chance to see new releases first in theaters.

10. Governments will use more AI

When interviewed by The Economist last year about predictions for 2020, an AI called GPT-2 did not mention the coronavirus or its repercussions- well, we didn’t either! While it may have failed to predict it, AI has definitely proved its great powers to limit the spread of the pandemic. In the GCC for instance, apps were deployed to track the proximity to someone with Covid-19, conduct research and combat misinformation.

Beyond the pandemic and crisis management, ‘AI is transforming Governments, like electricity or the internet did,’ said Jad Haddad, Partner at Oliver Wyman MEA. Efficiencies generated by AI can support the budgets of governments in the Middle East by up to $7 billion per year, according to his company’s expectations. And governments have started realizing the potential.

The market for AI, cyber security and big data analytics is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 20% by 2025 in the Middle East and Africa, according to Reportlinker.com. These numbers are mainly backed by plans of governments in the region to invest in AI and Machine Learning. Gulf countries have already started to make their way to global rankings.

But while the pandemic has clearly highlighted the crucial need for AI to solve problems, it has also revived the debate for regulating its use to protect the privacy of citizens. 

11. China will grab the spotlight in 2021

China had a blockbuster 2020. Despite a global pandemic originating on its shores, the nation’s economy quickly rebounded, growing by 4.3% in the third quarter of this year, its citizens are living a largely normal life thanks to strict lockdowns that stopped the virus’ spread and it joined one of the world’s largest trading pacts. The United States and Europe, meanwhile, are setting themselves up to spend 2021 containing waves of infections that have brought large portions of their economies to a standstill. 

All of this puts China in a prime position to secure a spot as the world’s dominant superpower for years to come. But winning hearts and minds isn’t likely to come with that success. 

For years, China has used its economic might as a bargaining chip to gain access to new markets or to quiet criticism over human rights violations against its Uighur minority population. While companies have much to lose should China close its borders to them, government leaders are loath to cede more influence to a country that has displayed a zero-sum approach to diplomatic relations. Indeed, negative sentiment toward China is on the rise in Australia, Germany, the U.S., South Korea and Canada, among others, according to a Pew Research Center survey. “China is going to be ahead of everyone economically, however, its global reputation is not going to improve,” said James McGregor, China chair of public affairs firm APCO Worldwide. “The [Chinese Communist] Party leadership seems to have decided that if China can’t be loved, it might as well be feared.”

The U.S. State Department has developed a blueprint for containing China’s sphere of influence, but the incoming Biden administration will have other immediate priorities; namely, curbing a pandemic-fueled economic crisis and distributing a much-needed vaccine. China will likely use that distraction to amass more influence, but it may find a less receptive global community.

12. K-shaped recovery will send companies to court the wealthy

The global pandemic has created “a tale of two cities,” investor and philanthropist David Rubenstein told LinkedIn News: “The people at the top are just doing spectacularly well; the rest are falling further and further behind.”

As that K-shaped bifurcation continues in the wake of the pandemic, companies will be forced to follow the money in order to thrive — or even survive. Operate a movie theater that has been sitting largely empty? Private screenings might fill the gap, as cinema chain AMC and others are piloting. Hotel chains are courting well-to-do workers seeking private offices overlooking the beach, a trend that could continue for years. Even dollar stores are now targeting wealthier customers. “The need for this store is very relevant now — and maybe increasingly so,” Emily Taylor, Dollar General’s chief merchandising officer, said of the company’s new brand of stores called Popshelf, which is aimed at more affluent shoppers.

As companies chase moneyed consumers, their own operational makeup will change too, according to David Hunt, CEO of the $1.4 trillion investment firm PGIM. “Businesses across the globe have been shedding the assets that have historically defined them — factories, machinery, regional offices teeming with people,” he told LinkedIn News. Going forward, companies will increasingly invest in intellectual property, software, online platforms, proprietary data and algorithms — whatever it takes to track and meet the customer of the future where they are. LinkedIn data show that hiring for executives tasked with finding those consumers, such as chief growth officers and chief revenue officers, is on the rise.

13. Retail investors will also change debt markets

Retail investors took center stage this year. They’re non-professional investors, who buy and sell securities or funds in financial markets for themselves rather than through financial firms. From contributing to less than 10% of trades in Wall Street last year, their trades made up a third of total transactions this year, moving markets and making headlines throughout the year.

Robinhood investors are those individuals using the commission-free trading platform called Robinhood. The company, which lowered barriers to investing and managed to attract more than 13 million users, is currently exploring a potential IPO. 

“What we’re witnessing today can only be described as a retail investor revolution, which will likely continue to progress with the democratisation of every kind of asset, as well as the emergence of new asset classes. 2021 will be a year where we see the grassroots movement continue to create a shift towards responsible investing across the board,” said Feras Jalbout, Founder and CEO of baraka.

Individual investors contribute to debt markets too. And while governments were previously discouraged to invest in platforms for retail debt investors considering their high costs, technologies like blockchain will help them set up retail debt programs, the World Bank says. And this will make individuals actively involved in governments’ recovery plans and fiscal adjustments. 

14. Fintech will face a reality check, and will make it through

Some Fintech companies have lit the dark skies of the business environment in 2020, as lockdowns and social distancing accelerated the transformation towards ‘everything digital’. However, that wasn’t the case for all of them. Despite good funding numbers from MENA, the financial position of global Fintech companies became under pressure during the pandemic, with mixed views around the future fundraising, according to a report by the University of Cambridge and the World Economic Forum.

And while Fintech is projected to top $2.5 billion in MENA by 2022 according to Clifford Chance, the sector is still facing major customer resistance, regulatory and operational hurdles. 

For instance, the pandemic and the uncertainty it created have pushed customers to be more cautious about sharing financial information with third parties that can offer them more personalized financial services. In a LinkedIn poll by Tarek Daouk, CEO of dentsu MENA, 80% of the 429 respondents said they’re reluctant to do so. 

But this prudence will fade away once customers understand the value of their data, says KPMG, which will push banks into a faster adoption of open models. ‘It is not a question of whether or not you will need to deal with the implications of open banking. You will. The question should be whether you are ready to make the most of it,’ the report adds. 

15. The pandemic will unleash a new wave of entrepreneurs

Last decade’s Great Recession set off a wave of entrepreneurialism, as high unemployment encouraged would-be business owners to pursue their great idea rather than rely on a turbulent job market. Silicon Valley spawned juggernauts like Slack, Uber and Airbnb in the wake of that downturn. We can expect the same when the dust settles from this crisis. 

While the pandemic has devastated local economies around the world and put millions out of work, it will set off an entrepreneurial renaissance. “We will start to see more people step off the corporate ladder and start their own businesses. Maybe at an accelerated rate like we have not seen before,” said Lucy Chow, a senator representing the UAE at the World Business Angels Investment Forum.

The shift from employee to entrepreneur has already begun. With scores of restaurants and retailers permanently shuttered without a viable comeback, frontline workers are launching traveling hair salons and virtual workout classes. New business applications, which would-be entrepreneurs must file for tax purposes, have skyrocketed, growing 38% year-over-year as of mid-November, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

This entrepreneurial spike may be largely isolated to countries that did not offer robust economic stimulus programs to keep workers employed. In Europe, where governments have helped companies offset costs while workers stayed home, the unemployment rate is far lower than in the U.S. Those economies have not seen the same dramatic uptick in new business formation.

16. Employees' mental health will be more in focus. 

Companies are realizing that poor mental health among employees is on the rise, and that something needs to be done about it. The conversation around mental wellbeing will have to be prioritized at work more than ever before, and companies will start ramping up their resources and support benefits to employees’ health during the pandemic and its aftermath.

In the UAE, 86% of the workforce say that the pandemic has negatively affected their mental health, according to a study by Oracle, while 77% expressed that they’d rather talk to an AI about their mental health than their manager. Companies will need to provide multiple options and resources for employees to productively perform their roles in an increasingly stressful environment during the pandemic. Wondering where to start? Watch the full conversation diving into the Oracle study data below:

 17. Offices will be redesigned to thrill us

After a year of working from home, power dynamics have shifted. Companies will need to give employees a reason to return to the office. On offer? Spaces designed for what we’ve been missing all along: Human connection, and maybe a bit of rest and relaxation, too. 

“People miss people the most. There’s a credible value to real life in-person contact,” says Liz Burow, the former WeWork vice president of workplace strategy. Burow says offices will function in two key ways: As spaces where people gather for leadership, personal development and culture; and as clubhouses where they come together to collaborate and congregate. Either way, we won’t be gathering in them five days each week anymore.

This transformation won’t simply be philosophical; it’ll be physical, too. 

Assigned seating is gone, says Brittney Van Matre, Nike’s director of workplace strategy and operations. Surveys from Nike show employees want to work in an office, but only twice a week. And when they do come in, they want it to be collaborative. Office design needs to accommodate this “activity-based working,” she says — the term for flexible spaces that suit a variety of needs. 

But collaborative spaces alone may not be enough to draw people back, warns Van Matre. She believes companies would be wise to entice people with either “a kickass headquarters with a lot of amenities and a super slick experience” or “a really unique experience that you can’t get anywhere else.” Van Matre suggests companies may want to consider setting up outposts in unconventional locales, like rural, scenic areas more associated with leisure, creating “a reprieve” employees can gravitate towards.

18. For many workers, the 9-to-5 will become a 3-2-2

Business leaders are being forced to rethink how their companies will work in a post-pandemic world. One of the biggest questions they will face? Where — and when — employees can work. 

By the time it’s safe to return to the office, many workers will have spent a year or more working from home. And many are enjoying the extra time and flexibility. Companies may let employees work from home two or more days per week, with some opting for three days in office, two days remote and then two days off — a 3-2-2 work week, if you will — according to Ashley Whillans, a professor at Harvard Business School. Some employers may even cut down to a four-day work week altogether. 

“Employees will demand greater flexibility and organizations will require it,” Whillans said. “What this flexibility will look like will vary depending on the sector and geographic location. But, hopefully, if we do this right, gridlock morning commutes will be a thing of the past.”

Recent data from LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index shows roughly half (47%) of U.S. professionals believe their companies will allow them to be — at least partially — remote after the coronavirus pandemic wanes. That percentage is even higher among certain industries which see flex work as the future, including tech (73%), finance (67%) and media (59%). 

19. The remote classroom will get a much-needed upgrade

One of 2020’s biggest frustrations involved the upheavals associated with abruptly halting in-person K-12 and college education, in favor of moving everything to remote learning. Instructors struggled to master video tools built for adults in business settings. Class attendance dwindled. Even students who did show up often felt disconnected.

There must be a better way, say Stanford computer science professor Daphne Koller and her husband, tech entrepreneur Dan Avida. Both helped build Coursera, a giant, college-level online learning platform. Now they’re back with another ed-tech startup, Engageli, which is building an interactive teaching system that’s designed to meet schools’ unique needs. 

One key idea: making it easy for students to “sit” together at tables of two to eight learners, while an instructor’s lesson unfolds. Students can confer with table-mates without being heard by the larger group. Meanwhile, the instructor can explain things to all the tables at once, while still being able to visit specific tables to make sure everything is on track. Avida says educators prefer this model to the rigid constraints of other vendors’ breakout rooms, which were built to suit corporate needs. 

Meanwhile, leading business-video players such as Zoom, Cisco’s WebEx, and Microsoft Teams are likely to move quickly to address the needs of the education market in 2021, too. (Microsoft also owns LinkedIn.) But Avida says Engageli has been filing lots of patents to protect its ideas, adding that its single-minded focus on education may help it move faster than other rivals for whom education is only a niche market.

20. Virtual events are here to stay, for real

Among many of the activities that have moved to Zoom and online meeting platforms are events. Many of the Gulf’s major events have gone virtual during this year amid a halt on large gatherings, including the G20 Summit hosted by Saudi Arabia. Networking and casual side conversations will find their place online, after organizers quickly adapted to a technology that can be able to host and stream a large event. 

Yet the forced shift may have reminded everyone of a key advantage of the world of online events; wider participation. Attendees can have more chances to connect with a wider network and participate in events that might have been more difficult to reach before.

“Data is showing a significant rise in demand for online events and it’s been inspiring to see the innovative ways event creators are leveraging our platform. We expect online events will continue to play a big role in events post-pandemic,” Crystal Valentine, chief data strategy officer at Eventbrite told Wamda.

21. For leaders, character will be everything

As we strive to overcome a global pandemic and an economic recession, the character of leaders will matter as much as their competence. In 2021, servant leadership will be a competitive advantage. 

Psychologists find that in the face of threats to our jobs and our lives, we become more concerned about precarity and purpose. We’re looking for a sense of confidence that our jobs are secure and a sense of contribution to a cause larger than ourselves. This will give servant leaders an edge in recruiting, motivating and retaining talented people.

Servant leaders are givers, not takers—we can count on them to put our interests above their own. They recognize that people aren’t the most important resource in a company; they are the company. They won’t lay us off at the drop of a hat; they’ll do whatever they can do to save our jobs. They won’t keep us tethered to an office or a schedule, they’ll give us the freedom and flexibility to work wherever and whenever works for us. They won’t become micromanagers; they’ll be “macromanagers” who rally people around a meaningful mission. They won’t keep us stuck in dead-end jobs; they’ll create opportunities for growth and advancement. And if there isn’t a path up, they’ll care enough to support us in finding a safe path out. — Adam Grant, organizational psychologist at Wharton, host of the TED podcast WorkLife and author of “Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know,” available on February 2

Reporting by Salma Altantawy, George Anders, Chris Anderson, Devin Banerjee, Jordyn Dahl,  Lynn Chouman, Caroline Fairchild, Adam Grant, Beth Kutscher, and Callie Schweitzer. Art direction by Greg Lee. 

What will you be watching in the year ahead? Share in the comments or publish a post, article or video on LinkedIn with #BigIdeas2021.