205. Exploiting the 20% opportunities that cause the 80% effect
#MakingBetterDecisions, #Goals,?#focusonwhatmatters, #Wealth, #Careers
“I've found that luck is quite predictable. If you want more luck, take more chances. Be more active. Show up more often.” - Brian Tracy
This article is a follow-up to a piece I wrote earlier: Are you seizing the right opportunities. The essential point of my previous article was that a small number of causes account for most of the effects. Although over twelve thousand earthquakes occur in a year across the globe, only a handful of them account for almost all of the cumulative damage. Similarly with forest fires – most of their aggregate damage stems from a small number of fires. Most of the wealth in almost any country (irrespective of the system of governance or ideology like democracy, monarchy, capitalism, socialism etc) is owned by a very small percentage of the overall population. Even at a personal level, while we encounter many opportunities, most of our lives’ consequential changes can be attributed to a precious few of them.
But there is no reliable way to identify these “potent” opportunities in advance. You can only recognize them in retrospect. This means that you have little agency in consciously seizing these opportunities when they come your way. You may not be able to change the random nature of these opportunities but you surely can increase the likelihood that such opportunities come our way and also, when they do, exploit them. You do this by operating at the edge of chaos. You can improve the quality of your opportunities by pursuing calculated risks. But it is hard to sustain “risk taking” as a conscious strategy. It works best when it becomes part of one’s subconscious attitude to life. i.e., when we make it an organic part of our mindset as opposed to treat it as a tool or a strategy to adopt. How does one inculcate this attitude of risk taking – what qualities should one develop. Here is what helped me:
Growth mindset
“Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better.” -?Maya Angelou
Without deliberate orientation for it, growth, if any, will be coincidental. Not everyone craves growth and that is fine. But for those valuing growth, without a strong sense of purpose, progress may not sustain. It is best to have the “why” sorted i.e., have a clear and meaningful purpose as to why you seek growth.
Curiosity (and learning)
“We keep moving forward, opening new doors, and doing new things, because we're curious and curiosity keeps leading us down new paths.” - Walt Disney
Given the dynamic (random) nature of the world, no amount of modelling and computing power can help in predicting the future. Today, Artificial Intelligence is all the rage but it was not even a blip on most people’s radar even five years ago. Twenty years ago, we did not know that smart phones were going to take over our lives. Thirty years ago, we did not know how to edit genes. Pace of change is only picking up. Dynamism is becoming even more acute. Being curious is perhaps the best way to make sense of these changes. But it is not so much about being curious about the future as much as it is about being curious about history. Learning how somethings don’t change with time and learning what things tend to change. Learning to differentiate between what is a fad and what is fundamental. Learning that peace is not natural whereas conflict is. Learning that maintaining peace is costly. Learning that robustness comes from discomfort and comfort leads to fragility. Etc. Also, that learning is not good enough; application and regular reinforcement transforms learning into value.
With regards to what areas or themes to be curious about, sustainable value comes from what you naturally feel curious about. I think your instinct will be your best guide.
Patience (and detachment)
“He that can have patience can have what he will.” - Benjamin Franklin
Good things take time. Compounding takes time. Sustainable growth takes time. But, as such, we are becoming increasingly deficit in attention. Patience was always powerful but in today’s world it probably has become super power. But being patient is difficult. Patience boils down to the developing capacity to suffer pain and boredom. With regards to suffering pain, how you deal with setbacks in the long game of success, may play a vital role. I owe a great debt of gratitude to endurance running in developing my capacity for suffering pain. And to long distance trekking too.
“Boredom is the?fear?of self.” – Marie Josephine de Suin
Equally important is building comfort with boredom. There are a number of ways to build this. You can go on long walks (or runs) alone with no earbuds and no fitness watch. Read books as opposed to blogs. Read blogs as opposed to twitter feed. Watch documentaries as opposed to news. Dealing with boredom is not just about biding time while compounding benefits accrue. It is also as much for creating a fertile ground for creative ideas. If your mind is engaged all the time with work items, podcasts, books, social media etc, when will you allow it an opportunity to organize its learning such that new ideas may arise.
Also, preoccupation with results may impede patience. It may subject you to emotional volatility – one moment happy that things are going well and the next moment despondent because things seem to be falling apart. Try breaking down long-term activities into weekly or daily habits. Holding yourself to these daily habits will help you live more in the present and by default, make you more patient.
Bottomline
“The best luck of all is the luck you make for yourself.” - Douglas MacArthur
80% outcomes tend to come from 20% of causes – this principle is popular enough. Is there a way to somehow recognize these 20% causes in advance? After all, why waste efforts on the remaining 80% causes. But I don’t think this is possible. I don’t think we can change this to something like 100/50 or 100/80. It will always remain 80/20 – to be sure, 80 and 20 are not to be taken literally, they are merely directional… the essential point is that most of the effect is due to a small number of causes.
By enhancing the quality of the entire baseline of opportunities, 20% of the resultant “enhanced” opportunities may result in elevated overall outcomes. And thankfully, there are reliable ways to improve the quality of baseline.
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Thanks for taking time to read this article. In this newsletter, I share my learnings that could help you improve your decisions and make meaningful progress in your life. I try to share stuff that I have personally experienced or experimented with.