By 2031, the number of "good jobs" in the US is projected to increase to 87.8M, a 21% rise from 2021 with Management occupations leading the way!
Nicolas BEHBAHANI
Global People Analytics & HR Data Leader - People & Culture | Strategical People Analytics Design
?? Good jobs are expected to comprise 62% of all jobs.
?? Projections through 2031 forecasts that the bachelor’s degree pathway will be the dominant route to good jobs in the future despite continued skepticism about the value of a college degree.
?? The number of good jobs for workers on the bachelor’s degree pathway will grow by more than 15 million net new jobs, while the number of good jobs on the high school pathway will decline by nearly 600,000.
?? There is a thriving future but people need to continue to progress in helping young people meet a rising bar of expectations. Higher education, lifelong learning, and skills training in in-demand fields will be essential to success in the evolving job market.
?? Automation—and technological change more broadly—is one of the greatest unknowns clouding our good jobs forecast through 2031
By 2031, it is expected that 72 % of jobs will require at least some postsecondary education - Getting a good job is even more dependent on higher levels of education, according to a new interesting research published by Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce J.P. Morgan using data ?? from Center’s projections of all jobs in Carnevale et al., After Everything, 2023, and forecasts of the share of jobs that are good within 66 occupational groups and educational pathway combinations, using 1992–2020 trends, based on inflation-adjusted annual earnings.
?What makes a good job in this research?
Researchers defined a good job as one that pays at least?$43,000 and a median of $74,000 for workers ages 25–44 in 2022 dollars.?For workers ages 45–64, a good job pays at least $55,000 and a median of $91,000 in 2022 dollars so based solely on pay and not considering any other factors.
These jobs have median earnings of $74,000. For workers ages 45–64, a good job pays at least $55,000. These jobs have median earnings of $91,000. Many good jobs pay well above the minimum earnings threshold and provide room for growth toward higher earnings. The overall median earnings for people ages 25–64 who hold a good job are $82,000. A majority of workers in these jobs earn between $62,000 and $116,000.9
?Why good jobs will increase?
The projections of researchers show that there will be substantially more good jobs by 2031 than there are today. From 2021 to 2031, the number of good jobs will jump from 72.6 million to 87.8 million, a net increase of 15.2 million. As a share of all jobs, good jobs will increase from 59% to 62%.
Researchers have identified several factors contributing to the increase in good jobs, including:
?? A slower increase in labor supply,
?? Technological advancements that enhance productivity,
?? A more robust expansion in higher-paying occupations,
?? Increased political pressure to focus on job quality, in addition to employment levels.
?Demand for more Education for Good jobs
Researchers predict that the number of good jobs for workers on the bachelor’s degree pathway will grow by more than 15 million net new jobs, while the number of good jobs on the high school pathway will decline by nearly 600,000.
?? The bachelor’s degree pathway will account for an increasing share of good jobs, reaching 66% by 2031, compared to 59% in 2021.
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?The managerial and professional office on the top in 2031!
Researchers have discovered that managerial and professional office roles are expected to constitute nearly one-third of all quality jobs in 2031, encompassing management, business and financial operations, as well as legal occupational groups.
Others interesting insights are listed below:
?? Good jobs in STEM will make up just 11% of the total number of good jobs
?? The blue-collar occupational cluster will be the second largest source of good jobs, behind managerial and professional office.
?? Blue-collar occupations will be a particularly significant source of good jobs for workers without college degrees, as this cluster will account for more than half (54 percent) of good jobs for workers with a high school education or less and nearly a third (32 percent) of good jobs for workers with middle skills.
?? About half of all blue-collar jobs are expected to be good in 2031.
?The occupations with the largest number of Good Jobs on each educational pathway in 2031
Researchers discovered that the greatest number of net new good jobs for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher through 2031.
Management; business and financial operations; education, training, and library; and healthcare professional and technical occupations will add the greatest number of net new good jobs for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher through 2031.
?? ???? ???????????????? ????????:
Although it's only seven years away, a lot can change between now and 2031. Despite numerous uncertainties, researchers' projections consistently indicate a continued increase in quality jobs. By 2031, it is expected that there will be 15.2 million more quality jobs than in 2021.
These projections suggest that the landscape of quality jobs in the future will benefit workers with higher levels of education and training.
Many field experts express uncertainty regarding the pace of AI advancements; thus, the future of AI and its comprehensive impact on the US workforce remains uncertain.
The projections of quality jobs provided in this report offer an insight into the probable direction of the job market, yet the future remains unwritten.
Thank you ?? : Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce J.P. 摩根 researchers team for these insightful findings: Jeff Strohl Artem Gulish Catherine Morris Anthony Carnevale Matthew Muench
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3 个月Nicolas BEHBAHANI thank you for consistently bringing interesting and relevant data and analysis forward. It would be interesting to dive deeper into Dave Ulrich’s point regarding “good”. I wonder how much trust in corporations influences these findings? It is also increasingly clear that the need for higher level leadership skills training continues to grow. Building confidence and expertise in areas like Emotional Intelligence and other higher level leadership elements will separate great leaders from the pack. Some still call these “soft skills” - I suggest they are the hardest and in increasing demand in our post Covid, complex working environments.
LinkedIn Top Voices in Company Culture USA & Canada I Executive Advisor | HR Leader (CHRO) | Leadership Coach | Talent Strategy | Change Leadership | Innovation Culture | Healthcare | Higher Education
3 个月Thank you for sharing Nicolas BEHBAHANI Lisa Highfield
Human Resource Professional | MBA | Coporate Recruiting Professional- ASA | Ex-Wirtgen Group,A John Deere Company
3 个月Great learning! Thank you so much for sharing.
We appreciate your insights, thanks for sharing!
Industry Veteran | Exploring Future of Work | Great Manager’s Coach & Mentor
3 个月"Trends R my Friends" - good share Nicolas BEHBAHANI. ?? Excellent research, by Georgetown University had to scratch my head. ?? ?? Some USA related data - Goods-Producing Sectors: 1997: Employed 18.4 million / 2020: Employed 21.1 million. Service-Providing Sectors:1997: Employed 116 million / 2020: Employed 132 million.? ?? Analysis - The goods-producing sector grew by approximately?14.67%, outpacing the service-providing sector’s growth of around?13.79%.? - While technology continues to shape jobs, the future remains unwritten, BUT past cannot be extrapolated - YES can give us learning. Shaping the future with - AI, Green, Social-movement's, Space & Bio-tech.