2025: What’s In, What’s Out, and What’s Next

Short on Time, Big on Insights: Your monthly rundown on the most compelling narratives.

To kick off our first TL;DR newsletter of 2025, our team is diving into the key trends shaping the year ahead—highlighting what's in and what's out across retail, wellness, dining, and more.

TL;DR for This Month’s TL;DR:

?? Personal reinvention leads the way – Fitness, beauty, and apparel hit major growth as consumers embrace self-transformation.

?? Retail experience wins – Simple, seamless customer journeys take precedence over flashy experiential marketing.

?? Gen Z loves in-person – Digital natives are driving demand for live events, pop-ups, and physical connections.

?? Health-driven dining dominates – Fast-casual brands see strong growth with customizable, healthy options.

?? Legacy retail brands rebound – Brands like Barnes & Noble and Abercrombie & Fitch connect with loyal shoppers for a fresh start.

??? In-store media and value pricing thrive – Retailers double down on value and the power of in-store ads.

R. J. Hottovy, CFA , Head of Analytical Research

What’s In: Personal Reinvention

What’s Out: Lack of Innovation

As we look ahead to 2025, a new trend may be emerging: personal reinvention. Our data shows that fitness, beauty, and apparel were among the top-performing discretionary retail categories in year-over-year visits during November and December.

What’s driving this movement? It could be as simple as buying a new outfit for a holiday party or experimenting with seasonal beauty products. However, several apparel retailers we spoke with pointed to broader health and wellness trends. In 2024, we saw a rise in in-person workouts, greater adoption of technology-driven fitness and wellness routines, and increased use of wellness supplements and GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro. Many retailers noted that healthier lifestyle choices throughout 2024 fueled demand for beauty, apparel, and fitness products during the holiday season—a trend that could have lasting effects in the year ahead.

While reinvention may be a major demand driver in 2025, innovation remains just as critical. Amid inflationary pressures, many retailers and restaurants relied heavily on discounting and value pricing in 2024 to attract consumers. While these tactics boosted short-term visits, the real winners were brands that successfully combined new products, new flavors, and fresh packaging with competitive pricing. Value will remain important in 2025, but expect a stronger emphasis on innovation to drive long-term customer loyalty.

Ethan Chernofsky , SVP of Marketing

What’s In: Retail Experience?

What’s Out: Experiential Retail?

Whether it be the mall, the coffee shop, retail spaces, or stadiums, the value and central role of experience is becoming all the more apparent. Critically, though, when we talk about experience we’re talking about an emphasis on the smoothness and enjoyability of the customer journey, the environment in a physical location and the service provided.

Sounds pretty basic, and equally obvious, right?

But this comes as experiential - let’s define it as an installation that is more over the top and less focused on the core customer journey - becomes increasingly less important for retailers and chains.?

The difference here is critical. Experience is a part of the day to day expectation that the customer has, and the focus on this element elevates that daily journey by focusing on the basics. Experiential looks beyond the basics and tries to bring a greater degree of buzz and attention.

In 2025, expect a focus on the foundations of experience to win out.

Caroline Wu , Director of Research

What’s In: Gen Z IRL Events

What’s Out: Gen Z Online Only

For a generation that grew up digitally native and has the ability to live entirely online, Gen Z proves that as humans, we still crave socializing and interacting in person.?While we’ve learned that life can go on online - Zoom schooling, Doordash, Amazon Prime - this generation also learned that being totally alone is not ideal. There’s nothing that compares with laughing with your friends at school, enjoying a lingering dinner with family, or being able to try on makeup and fragrances at a store.

Digital-first companies like dating app Bumble or Tinder are partnering with hotels and restaurants to offer live meet-ups for customers sick of just swiping. Netflix’s recent Squid Game Season 2 activations worldwide across six continents made a splash, particularly the world premiere in Seoul which attracted around 1,000 guests in person. A Times Square takeover last fall engaged fans with dozens of Squid Game players participating in a physical challenge in a giant sand pit.? Even influencers realize that having a physical presence in some form is a must - witness the success of Mr Beast’s MrBeast Burger at American Dream or Kylie Jenner with global pop-ups for Kylie Cosmetics.

Expect to see even more creative activations, challenges, and pop-ups in 2025!

Ben Witten , Head of Real Estate Strategy

What’s In: customizable, health-oriented dining experiences

Chipotle Mexican Grill and CAVA have both demonstrated impressive growth in the fast-casual dining sector and are poised to continue positive momentum in 2025.

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a 13% increase in total revenue for the third quarter of 2024, reaching $2.8 billion. This growth is attributed to their commitment to high-quality ingredients and efficient service, which continue to resonate with consumers seeking convenient yet healthy dining options.

CAVA, often dubbed the "Mediterranean Chipotle," has also experienced significant success. In the same quarter, CAVA's revenue grew by 39% year-over-year to $241.5 million, with same-restaurant sales increasing by 18.1%. This rapid expansion is driven by their customizable Mediterranean menu, appealing to health-conscious consumers.

Both brands have effectively tapped into the growing demand for customizable, health-oriented dining experiences, positioning themselves for continued success in the competitive fast-casual market.

Elizabeth Lafontaine , Director of Research

What’s In: Legacy Retail Brands

What’s Out: Retailers That Can’t Connect to Shoppers

We’ve been observing a renaissance among legacy discretionary retail brands over the past few years, and 2025 is likely to see more begin to find the spotlight once again. Barnes & Noble is a prime example of this trend; a brand that’s been about to regain its footing in physical retail after e-commerce disruption due to a strong brand relationship with its consumers. Abercrombie & Fitch and Anthropologie are two other examples in the apparel space - one has been able to rebuild its relationship with Millennials after years apart and the other has been able to hedge against high levels of promotion due to brand equity.?

At a time in the retail industry where consumers are still incredibly discerning, brands that are top of mind when a consumer heads out to shop are going to win. Retailers who haven’t built that same type of bond with their customers could face more challenges, especially as discretionary category visitation hopefully ramps up in 2025.

Kevin Ching , Head of Retail, Restaurant and Advertising

What’s In:?In Store Retail Media & Value Pricing

What’s Out:?Curbside pickup

In-store retail experiences and more dining options are going to continue to pull people out of their homes, especially as retail and restaurants compete on value pricing initiatives. A not-so-serious wild card: Ozempic! Lol

On an unrelated note but one that does impact the economy - what’s in? More fire retardant and hurricane resistant housing. Maybe insurance availability is the forcing function we all need.??

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