2025 Quarter 1 Update

Happy New Year! I hope the Holidays were relaxing and enjoyable for you this year and that you're coming back to work refreshed and ready to go.

I'm super excited for the Network Spotlight this month - Ramin Abhari, P.E. was gracious enough to give me some of his time and if you don't know who he is and the unique kinds of things he's been up to, I think you'll find it interesting! He has combined his talent of graphic storytelling with his expertise in process safety and created some very unique content.

Election in the Rearview

All I will say on this topic is that I'm glad it's over. Election years are typically not that good for business because there is so much uncertainty. While the election result seems to favor the chemical manufacturing industry in some ways, I think just having it over and having a result is good enough. I remember back in 2019-2020 and the disruptions that were caused by tariffs (and quasi-trade war that happened as a result) so it will be interesting to see what President Trump actually does on that front, all election-cycle rhetoric aside. I think the positive for the chemical manufacturing industry will likely be in the form of reduced federal regulations...but that still remains to be seen as well. Sidenote: whether you agree or disagree with them, the DOGE (department of government efficiency) that will be headed up by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will be an interesting phenomenon to watch.

Manufacturing Coming out of Recession?

If you've been a reader of this eNewsletter for the past year - I've suggested (as have others) that US (and global) chemical manufacturing has been recessionary for about 2 years, but there does seem to be reason for optimism. Anecdotally, I've heard from several companies that are anticipating an uptick in hiring to start 2025 and I've talked to a few industry leaders who are also generally optimistic for an improved business climate this year.

Deloitte publishes a chemical industry outlook every year and their outlook for 2025 is also positive, saying that "moderate growth is expected to continue in the chemical industry in 2025."

The FitchRatings Global Chemical Outlook is a little less positive, declaring a 'neutral' outlook for the chemical industry in 2025 saying, "chemical margins will remain under pressure despite modest volume improvements and lower energy and feedstock costs, as a more robust economic recovery would be needed to absorb overcapacities while geopolitical risks mount." It's the last part of that sentence that catches my attention -- I actually think one of the potential positives for the US Chemical Industry job market is that re-shoring of some chemical capacities that had been previously off-shored would lead to addition hiring demand.

McKinsey, in their state of the chemical industry for 2025, call on the chemical industry to return to innovation and to make "bolder moves". While I found the content of their suggestions lacking insight into the industry itself (for example, their suggestion for innovation can be boiled down to "hey guys, just use AI"), their overall point has merit. They also expect growth in 2025, although they temper that expectation saying, "even with expected short-term growth, long-term demand will likely moderate."

Victoria Meyer from The Chemical Show Podcast was interviewed just recently by Chemistry World and offered her perspectives on the chemical industry coming out of 2024 into 2025. The article has more of a focus on the European chemical industry which is struggling, but does offer a contrast to the chemical industry in the United States. Victoria mentions that feedstock and energy costs have, and continue to be, very beneficial to US producers.

What are the Economists Saying?

Mixed bag - per usual these days. Here's a smattering:

From Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein, Economists at First Trust Portfolios

"We have always believed the morphine just delayed the pain and a recession was inevitable once it wore off. ?But the US is hooked on morphine, with irresponsibly high deficits creating government jobs and short-term spending stimulus. ?If Trump and DOGE cut the deficit, the morphine will wear off. ?With significantly less stimulus a recession is highly likely. ?Not a deep recession, but one that causes real GDP to decline 0.5% to 1%, and corporate profits to disappoint for the first time in years."

From Goldman Sachs:

"Goldman Sachs Research forecasts another solid year of global economic growth in 2025. Our economists project the US will outperform expectations while the euro area lags behind amid fresh tariffs that are anticipated from the Trump administration."

Check out this 'have it both ways' from Vanguard:

In our view, U.S. valuations are elevated but not as stretched as traditional metrics imply. Despite higher interest rates, many large corporations insulated themselves from tighter monetary policy by locking in low financing costs ahead of time. And more importantly, the market has been increasingly concentrated toward growth-oriented sectors, such as technology, that support higher valuations. Nevertheless, the likelihood that we are in the midst of a valuation-supporting productivity boom, akin to the mid-1990s, must be balanced with the possibility that the current environment may be more analogous to 1999. In the latter scenario, a negative economic environment could expose the vulnerability of current stock market valuations.

Like I said, mixed bag.

My Two Cents

I'm mostly encouraged by the optimism I hear in talking with people across the industry - I've heard more optimism in the past couple of months than I've heard over the past 18 months, so that tells me that the arrow at at least slightly pointing in the upward direction. There are, of course, still weak spots. Ask any one of the 8,000 people laid off at Cargill right before the Holidays. The first 100 days of President Trump's second term promise to be pretty wild, and he may have an impending dock worker's strike to deal with right out of the gate...so I guess I'm saying I appreciate Vanguard's "we don't really know" approach.

Chemical Engineering Compensation Report Update

The data collection phase ended January 3rd - thank you to the ~1,750 of you who participated. I'm currently cleaning and analyzing the dataset and should have a completed report by mid-to-late January.

Network Spotlight

I do a network spotlight every quarter, to highlight someone in my network who is doing something unique and/or interesting -- and this edition's spotlight, Ramin Abhari, definitely fits that bill. To access Ramin's graphic novels, please visit his LinkedIn page. Without further ado...

Current Openings:

If you are currently active in the job market, here are a few of the more urgent openings we have. If you're interested in seeing a more extensive list, or you are interested in seeing more information about a role listed here, please send me a message here on LinkedIn, or email me (relocation offered unless specifically stated otherwise):

Sr. Process Engineer - Atlanta, GA - Base pay up to $125K (coatings) *local only

Project Manager - Savannah, GA - Base pay up to $150K (chemicals)

Process Control Engineer (DeltaV) - Joliet, IL - Base pay up to $170K (refining)

Maintenance Manager - Joliet, IL - Base pay up to $200K (chemicals)

Process Control Engineer (PLC) - Lexington, KY - Base pay up to $130K (chemicals)

Maintenance Manager - Baton Rouge, LA - Base pay up to $160K (chemicals)

Biopharma Process Engineer - Upstate, NY - Base pay up to $140K (pharma)

Process Engineer - Akron, OH - Base pay up to $120K (coatings) *local only

Reliability Engineer - Northeast, OH - Base pay up to $120K (chemicals)

Reliability Engineer - Allentown, PA - Base pay up to $140K (chemicals)

Reliability Engineer - Beaumont, TX - Base pay up to $140K (chemicals)

Engineering/Project Manager - Houston, TX - Base pay up to $170K (chemicals) *local preferred

Plant Manager - Houston, TX - Base pay up to $180K (chemicals)

Process Technology Eng - Richmond, VA - Base pay up to $150K (chemicals)

Maintenance Manager - Wyoming - Base pay up to $200K + 20% bonus target (chemicals)