2025 China urea export policy predict

As of January 18th, 2025, China's urea export policy has not been clearly opened. Although there are rumors of export relaxation in the market, and the potential profit of export is considerable, due to the demand of urea as an important agricultural material during spring ploughing and the law of export policy adjustment over the years, the timing of actual export relaxation is not clear. In addition, although the export policy may become an important factor affecting the urea futures price, the port inventory has not increased, which indicates that the substantive export activities have not yet started. Therefore, the information about whether China's urea export will be open in 2025 is uncertain, and it is necessary to pay attention to further exact official notice or action.

1 The potential profit of export is considerable

Since June, 2024, with the domestic urea price rising under the pressure of inventory, while the international urea price is relatively firm, the potential export profit of urea has been rising. Under the strict implementation of the legal inspection policy, the price difference between domestic and foreign urea has been expanding. The change of export policy has gradually increased the weight among the factors affecting the market.

2. Historically, the relaxation of export policies may have to wait until the end of the peak season.

Before 2021, the adjustment of urea export will be realized mainly through the change of export tariff. When domestic supply and demand are tight and the price of urea rises sharply, the tariff ratio will usually be raised, while when domestic supply and demand are loose, the tariff ratio will be lowered. At present, the spot price of urea has obviously declined, some gas head devices have begun to lose money, the inventory of enterprises has continuously hit new highs, and the realistic foundation for relaxing export policies has been established. However, we also need to note that the export tariff of urea will take into account the low peak season of urea demand, so the time window for relaxing exports has not yet arrived at the moment when spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation are underway.

3 Port inventory has not changed yet.

Under the premise that the export policy cannot be accurately predicted, it is understandable that funds will rush to run away from the rebound of urea prices. However, from the relationship between port inventory and export quantity, the increase of exports is realized by transporting goods to the port in advance. At present, the port inventory has not changed, perhaps because there is no definite news about the relaxation of export policy, and we need to wait for a clearer signal. At present, export control is still very strict, and the government has no plan to open up the export of urea.

Even though government has no signal to open urea export, but our company can still keep on exporting through special channel fastly.

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