2025-2035: 10 years that will change the world forever

Samuel Benner (1832-1913) was a farmer who studied market cycles and, in 1875, published a book outlining his predictions for investment and savings strategies over the following 180 years. Considering the era in which it was designed, a review of his predictions reveals a remarkable level of accuracy.

Whether one believes in his predictions or not, the conclusion is evident: economic cycles have occurred, are occurring, and will continue to occur. The catalysts may vary—be it crop failures due to severe drought, a global conflict, the excesses of bankers, or a pandemic. In this vein, and with the certainty that 'something' will indeed transpire, here are my forecasts for the coming decade:

1- Full Expansion of Artificial Intelligence: I firmly believe we are underestimating the impact AI will have on our economic system. It's somewhat reminiscent of our approach to climate change: we're aware it's looming, but its gradual onset fails to spur us into treating it as an emergency... until it's too late. Allow me to outline the professions that will be affected by AI and new technologies, both presently and in the near future;

• Professions transitioning to self-service models may include roles such as cashiers, retail sales associates, and receptionists
• Sectors where AI can enhance efficiency and accuracy, offering continuous service, span across finance, legal services, preliminary medical screening, technical diagnostics (including radiology), software engineering, transportation (including taxi and truck driving), and the film industry
• Roles potentially fulfilled by humanoid robots could encompass chefs, nurses, waiters, manufacturing operatives, housekeeping staff, janitors, construction laborers, and more.

It is important to recognize that technological advancements will also give rise to new job categories, thereby contributing to the equilibrium of employment opportunities. A prime example is the burgeoning industry surrounding virtual reality, exemplified by the comprehensive deployment of systems like Omni One. However, the specialized nature of these emerging roles will not fully compensate for the displacement of traditional jobs.

2- Structural Crisis vs Cyclical Crisis: You might regard some of the aforementioned examples as mere science fiction. If so, let me invoke Moore's Law and the exponential increase in computing power every two years, with emphasis on the term 'exponential.' As Albert Bartlett, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder, famously stated, 'The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.' While it's not my area of expertise, trust me when I say that we are ill-prepared to grasp the ramifications of exponential growth in advanced technology.

Nonetheless, let's entertain the notion that my predictions are accurate and all the jobs I've listed (plus those I've undoubtedly overlooked) are rendered obsolete. Such a development would precipitate an unprecedented scenario: soaring unemployment levels alongside robust corporate profits due to heightened efficiency. Moreover, while I acknowledge that new jobs, such as robot maintenance operators, will emerge, I anticipate the disparity between new and eliminated jobs will be greater than ever before.

This shift would irrevocably alter the 'economic wheel' as we currently understand it: the interdependent cycle of employment-wages-consumption-demand-production-employment would be transformed. We are on the cusp of an economy where the production of goods and services will not necessitate (as much) human labor. This change could trigger a global economic meltdown. And yes, it would be as catastrophic as it sounds.

3- National Intervention Strategy: The scenario outlined necessitates a proactive approach, where an increase in effective corporate tax rates may serve as a viable solution. In an era marked by heightened automation and potentially significant unemployment, the disparity in wealth could reach levels that are unsustainable for many, potentially leading to severe social unrest. The prospect of escalating poverty inciting episodes of violence is a concerning possibility. Additionally, the response from multinational corporations to increased taxation may manifest in its own form of conflict. The period around 2030 is anticipated to be pivotal, yet an essential juncture in the annals of human history.

4- Envisioning Green Capitalism: While it may appear idealistic, I am optimistic that our society will adapt to and embrace a new paradigm of green capitalism. This societal model prioritizes life enjoyment over the pursuit of material wealth, fostering a culture where personal fulfillment, education, community support, and quality time take precedence. In this envisioned future, individuals may find themselves engaged in fulfilling part-time work, contributing to a sustainable and supportive community.

To set a realistic timeline, I do not foresee this transition occurring by 2035. However, the mere fact that an ordinary individual like myself is articulating these thoughts in 2024 suggests a growing consciousness that could steer us towards green capitalism within the next decade. Echoing the sentiments of Federico Pistono's 2012 book 'Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK'—which has been a profound inspiration for this article—I propose that the ultimate goal should be to create a society where 'the purpose of life is to let robots take your job'.

Are you ready?