20240115-0119 Newsletter

Macro & Business Matters?in the Globe

Aeest: Gold heads for worst week in six on falling rate-cut bets

Gold prices rose on Friday but were on track for their worst week in six, as the dollar and bond yields firmed after U.S. central bankers pushed back against expectations of early interest rate cuts.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,027.39 per ounce by 0743 GMT, but has fallen over 1% so far in the week.

This also offset safe-haven premium from?geopolitical risks?in the Middle east, Pascal added.

The dollar index edged down 0.1% but was up nearly 1% so far this week. A stronger dollar makes greenback-denominated gold more expensive for foreign currency holders.

Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes touched a fresh five-week high of 4.1730%.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President?Raphael Bostic?said he was open to lower rates sooner than anticipated depending on how quickly inflation falls, but the baseline was for cuts to start in the third quarter.

Economics: US economic activity little changed in recent weeks, Fed survey shows

U.S. economic activity saw little or no change from December through early January, while firms reported pricing pressures were mixed and nearly all cited signs of a cooling labor market, underscoring the tightrope the Federal Reserve continues to walk as it tries to reduce inflation while keeping growth and employment humming along.

The U.S. central bank released its latest snapshot on the health of the economy a day after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential voice on its policy-setting committee,?said recent data?was "almost as good as it gets" with economic growth gradually slowing, the unemployment rate remaining low, and key gauges of inflation hitting the Fed's 2% target rate for the past six months.

Economics:?ECB on track but job not done: Lagarde

The European Central Bank is on track to get inflation back to its 2% target but victory has not yet been won, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg TV in Davos on Wednesday.

Lagarde said it would be in the "late spring" when the ECB gets data from this year's collective wage agreements which could then give it a good idea of where household incomes and therefore inflation is going.

She declined to push back on market bets for six rate cuts this year but said that if investors are mispricing its future moves, that could be counterproductive to the fight against inflation.

SOURECE: REUTERS,?Daily News, Daily Sanah

? ? ? ? ?

Global CRE & Tourism?

Portugal: Golden Visas to raise investment funds

Portugal's investment fund option via the Golden Visa programme is now expected to be the main investment channel under the 'revamped' Golden Visa scheme as well as cultural and research projects.

According to Jornal Económico, placing money in investment funds has been an option under the Portuguese regime since 2015, however after closing the door to the purchase of real estate as a guarantee of residence in Portugal through the Golden visas, investors are now looking at investment funds as an option to be able to live in the country, reports Reuters.

Turkey: Turkish Airlines to double fleet size in 10 years

Turkish Airlines aims to double the number of aircraft in its fleet in 10 years and to become one of top seven carriers in the world, Ahmet Bolat, the chairman of the board and the executive committee, has said.

In 2023, Turkish Airlines contributed $56 billion to the Turkish economy and reinforced its leadership in the field of service exports with around $16 billion in revenues. When its fleet doubles in size, the carrier’s contribution to the Turkish economy, will increase to $144 billion, according to Bolat.

Ireland：Building activity shrinks for a sixth month in a row in December

Construction activity contracted again in December for the sixth month in a row, with commercial projects seeing the largest dip.

The BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland construction index – a survey of construction purchasing managers – came in at 45.1 in December, up slightly from 44.5 in November. Any reading below 50 indicates shrinking output.

Commercial activity plunged in December, with the index coming in at 42.8, lower than its November reading.?House building also contracted, with the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) coming in at 45.0, a slight improvement on November.

“Commercial values have inevitably been impacted by higher interest rates, and this has been compounded by soft occupational demand in some sectors, particularly offices. At the same time, input costs have continued to rise, albeit at a declining pace.?“The net effect has been squeezed development margins, stemming the flow of new project starts.”

SOURECE: Google News, GTP, Greek City Times, PORTUGAL NEWS, Daily News, Daily Sabah

? ? ? ? ?

Market Performance & Institution Views

Aviva Investors invests ￡150m into student accommodation portfolio

Viva Investors, the global asset management business of Aviva plc, announces it has acquired a portfolio of six PBSA assets and a mixed-use commercial property as part of a ￡150m investment into the student accommodation sector.

This extends the business’ strategic asset allocation to the direct let PBSA sector.

The student accommodation portfolio comprises a total of six assets in four cities across the UK, including, Edinburgh, Liverpool, Exeter, and Falmouth, which together provide bedspaces for more than 1,000 students.

As part of the transaction, Aviva Investors has also acquired a complementary commercial asset in Liverpool spread over 65,000 sq ft and offering mixed use leisure and retail spaces including hospitality, hotel and supermarket facilities.

James Stevens, head of real estate investment at Aviva Investors, said: “Complementing our BTR platform of single-family homes, this significant transaction shows our ability to deploy capital at scale, alongside a proven operating partner, into a strategically important growth sector for our business.

“Student numbers are projected to continue growing in the coming years and, with a structural undersupply of PBSA, we are pleased to be able to invest into the sector and support the provision of?accommodation across the country.”

SOURECE: HNR, CRE HERALD, Hospitality Investor