Is 2024 the Year of the Consumer Black Swan?

Let me remind you: No product strategy survives the first contact with a Black Swan event.

Having seen a few of those play out firsthand in the last year, I can say they demand more than tweaks; they require paradigm-breaking innovation.

Here's how I've seen it hit real brands and what we may not be ready for:

• From Status Symbol to Self-Symbol: I came across a team brainstorming campaigns for a luxury brand positioned on "heritage" appeal. The thing is, today's consumer isn't buying a brand's story; they're buying products that tell their story.

Think of brands like Levi’s, which began with premium denim basics and now offers customization options such as embroidery, patches, and tailored fits. These additions allow customers to make a classic brand item feel unique and personally meaningful.

Are our products going from aspirational objects to deeply personal expressions?

• Escapism in Every Corner: Last month, I heard of a tech company pushing VR not for gaming but for daily relaxation. We're seeing new product categories where escapism isn't exotic; it's woven into every touchpoint.

From immersive scents that transport consumers to coastal escapes, to digital "vacations" from workday stress, consumers are showing us they want more than products-they want experiences.

How are we pivoting from being "functional" to being emotionally immersive?

• ?Ethical Convenience: Recently, I bumped into an old client in FMCG who was struggling to phase out single-use plastic packaging. Consumers today expect convenience with a clear conscience.

People are not only recycling; they're asking for packaging that they don't need to recycle. Products with biodegradable or reusable solutions are no more "nice-to-haves"; they have become non-negotiable.

• Micro-Tribes Over Mass Markets: My favourite story of the year? A sports brand that opted to target a "small" tribe of ultra-marathoners, not the general fitness market.

The result? A spike in loyalty and demand. We're moving toward micro-tribes that live for their niches. If you're speaking broadly, you're likely missing the mark entirely.

• Downward Graph Predictably Unpredictable: Most forecasting I have seen this year?

Barely on target. If 2023 was about recovering and rebuilding, 2024 is a different game.

Instead of forecasts, mini-Black Swans are what we find day to day. The winds of change are blowing, and only brands that relish the unknown resonate as others wonder where it all went wrong.

Have you seen these shifts in action this year?

Let's talk about recalibrating to meet customers where they'll be next.

What side of the shift will your business be on?

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