2024 Week 15

1. Sustained Jobs Growth: A Positive Outlook for April

The U.S. job market continued its robust performance in March, adding 303,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 200,000. This marks the 39th consecutive month of job growth, with significant contributions from healthcare, government, and leisure/hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8%, continuing a trend well below the historical average of 5.7%. With the gap between actual job numbers and pre-COVID trends still at -3.9 million, the demand for labor outpaces supply, suggesting continued job growth and wage increases.

2. Nasdaq’s Streak Ends

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a downturn, falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since last November. This concluded its eighth-longest streak above this average, lasting 153 days.

3. Tesla Faces Challenges

Tesla reported a decline in vehicle deliveries for Q1, marking its first year-over-year drop since 2020. This downturn in deliveries and a 20% drop in stock price over the last year contrasts with gains seen by its competitors. Tesla’s current downturn may soon exceed its previous longest slump from 2014-17.

4. Investor Sentiment: Excessive Optimism?

Investor confidence is peaking, with the percentage of bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey reaching 62.5%, the highest since April 2021. Historically, such high levels of bullishness have been followed by below-average market returns, which might warrant caution.

5. Trump Media’s Financial Struggles

Trump Media reported a significant net loss for 2023, with mounting losses and a rapidly declining market cap. The high cost of shorting its shares indicates extreme market skepticism about its future performance.

6. Federal Reserve’s Unrealized Losses

The Federal Reserve revealed nearly $1 trillion in unrealized losses on its bond holdings, a consequence of purchasing long-term bonds at historically low interest rates. This raises questions about the Fed’s role and strategies in market manipulation.

7. Underreported Food Inflation?

According to a WSJ analysis, food prices in supermarkets have risen much faster than CPI data suggests, with a 36.5% increase over the past four years. This discrepancy highlights the financial strain on lower-income households, whose wage increases have not kept pace with inflation.

8. Record High in U.S. Household Net Worth

U.S. Household Net Worth reached a new high of $147 trillion in 2023, marking a 50% growth over five years. This increase in wealth, however, highlights ongoing discussions about wealth distribution and economic disparity.

9. Interesting Financial Statistics

• Google and Domino’s Pizza: Two decades after their IPOs, Google and Domino’s have seen astonishing returns of 6,080% and 8,200%, respectively.
• Retirement Expectations: The average amount Americans believe they need to retire comfortably has risen to $1.46 million.
• Lottery Spending: Americans spent over $113 billion on lottery tickets last year, surpassing combined expenditures on movies, books, concerts, and sports.