2024 US Presidential Election: An Analysis

The 2024 presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris offered a captivating, if at times, contentious exchange, with Harris generally perceived as having the upper hand in terms of style and poise. However, the ultimate impact of this debate on the electorate remains uncertain, especially with less than a month until election day. Key issues driving voter decisions include inflation, housing affordability, border security, healthcare, and reproductive rights. While approximately 67 million viewers tuned in, dissatisfaction with both candidates remains widespread.

During the debate, when Trump addressed rising consumer costs, Harris avoided a direct response, instead pivoting to an unrelated topic, raising questions about her ability to navigate economic policy discussions. Trump's critique of the Biden-Harris administration’s student debt relief plan resonated with many, pointing out the Supreme Court’s temporary block on the initiative. While Harris chose not to engage on this issue, the unresolved student loan crisis, affecting 45 million Americans, remains a political minefield. Some critics argue that the Biden administration's efforts amounted to little more than a political gesture, lacking substance.

On foreign policy, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, Harris stood firmly in defense of Biden’s approach, while Trump claimed he could swiftly end these wars. However, with economic concerns dominating the electorate's mindset, many Americans feel that the focus should be on domestic priorities rather than funneling resources into foreign conflicts.

Trump’s performance seemed to resonate with a portion of the audience, despite the overall negative sentiment toward both candidates. But the election's outcome hinges not on the national vote, but on the pivotal battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Among these, Michigan, with its 17 electoral votes, could be particularly influential. The dissatisfaction with Biden, especially among Democrats upset by his handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, has sparked a protest vote, notably among Arab-American voters who may consider supporting a third-party candidate as a means of future political leverage.

In 2020, Biden narrowly defeated Trump by around 150,000 votes, buoyed by widespread support, but this time around, the revival of the military-industrial complex under his administration has drawn criticism, particularly from younger voters wary of its influence. Whether this dissatisfaction will translate into electoral gains for Trump or a third-party challenger remains to be seen.

In the 2024 debate, Trump’s most significant setback came on the issue of reproductive rights, a topic Vice President Harris strategically emphasized, invoking the historical significance of the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade. Harris successfully framed Trump as a threat to women's autonomy, warning that he would support a national abortion ban. This message resonated with a large segment of the electorate, given that most Americans opposed the overturning of Roe and believe that decisions about abortion should remain personal medical choices. The gender gap in voter turnout, with women consistently outvoting men in every presidential election since 1980, underscores the potential for this issue to sway the election in Harris's favor.

Another challenge for Trump stems from his role in the January 6th Capitol insurrection, which alienated many moderate Republicans and could cost him crucial support from these voters. Together, the reproductive rights issue and the fallout from January 6th pose significant hurdles for Trump’s campaign, potentially driving voters toward Harris.

However, Harris faces her own obstacles. While President Biden garnered significant support from older voters in 2020, who appreciated his measured demeanor, it is unlikely that Harris will attract the same favor from this group. Older voters, generally more conservative, may view Harris as too liberal and could shift their allegiance to Trump, who is expected to lead in this demographic by a substantial margin.

Trump also enjoys a strong base among non-college-educated white voters, a demographic that remains critical in key swing states. According to data from Pew Research, nearly two-thirds of white voters without a college degree lean Republican, a trend that is particularly pronounced among men (64%) and women (62%) in this group. In battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, non-college white voters make up a significant portion of the electorate—ranging from 60% to 66%.

The aging U.S. electorate also plays into Trump’s favor, with voters over 50 making up more than half of Republican-leaning voters. With 52% of the electorate now over the age of 50, this bloc could be crucial for Trump, especially in swing states where older voters represent a substantial share of the population.

To give a clearer picture of the electoral landscape it is necessary to have a look at the following statistics:

Non-college-degree voters: Arizona 62%; Georgia 60%; Michigan 63%; Wisconsin 60%; N. Carolina 58%; Nevada 66%; and Pennsylvania 62%.

Voters 65+ age group: Arizona 25%; Georgia 20%; Michigan 23%; Wisconsin 23%; N. Carolina 23%; Nevada 23%; and Pennsylvania 24%.

Female Voters: Arizona 51%; Georgia 53%; Michigan 51%; Wisconsin 51%; N. Carolina 51%; Nevada 50%; and Pennsylvania 52%.

White vs Non-White Voters: White Americans accounted for 67% of eligible voters nationally in 2018, but they represented a much larger share in several key battlegrounds states: Wisconsin (86%), Pennsylvania (81%), Michigan (79%), Nevada (58%), and Georgia 79%. Does not matter how sad it is, the rise of Trump was the cause of non-white president in the White House.

Harris has proven effective in handling Trump, outperforming both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 during their respective debates. Her campaign has been well-organized, particularly in swing states, and she has managed to energize the Democratic base. However, three major challenges persist: her status as a non-white candidate, her staunch support of Biden’s foreign policy, particularly on Russian-Ukraine/Israel-Palestine wars, and perceptions that she is too liberal at a time when the nation may be seeking stronger leadership on world issues.

To secure victory, Harris must focus intensely on reproductive rights, particularly targeting female voters in swing states. For Trump, success depends on his ability to connect with voters on two key issues: reducing consumer goods prices and taking a strong anti-war stance. These issues could ultimately determine the outcome of this closely fought race.