2024 UK General Election: A Turning Point for Northern Ireland

“We are the party of the Good Friday Agreement, and the stability it has brought,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, arriving in Belfast. “We must turn the page and secure investment, prosperity, and stability for future generations to come.” Although the Good Friday Agreement, signed over 25 years ago, did help bring relative stability and peace to Northern Ireland, the past quarter-century has bred a new voting generation whose lived experience is entirely different from their parents and who have been starved of the investment and prosperity that Sir Keir now pledges.

As the dust settles in Westminster, it has become clear that the 2024 UK General Election delivered a seismic shift in Northern Ireland's political landscape. Sinn Féin has risen to become the largest party in Northern Ireland at Westminster, presenting a pivotal moment for the newly elected Labour government under Keir Starmer. With several unionist heartlands also shifting to the middle ground, the question now is not just about maintaining the status quo but envisioning a future that addresses the evolving identity and aspirations of Northern Ireland's people.

The Political Earthquake

For the first time, Sinn Féin, the Irish nationalist party, has secured more seats at Westminster than any other party in Northern Ireland, a historic achievement that underscores a profound shift in the region's political dynamics. The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), once the dominant force, has seen its influence wane dramatically, losing key seats like North Antrim, held by the Paisley family for over half a century. While some point to the recent historical sex abuse charges brought against former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson as a factor, this decline is emblematic of the broader fragmentation within Northern Irish unionism and the rising appeal of more progressive and centrist parties like Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party.

Sinn Féin, which will continue its longstanding policy of abstaining from taking seats in the UK Parliament, cruised to a string of often lopsided victories, easily defending its seven parliamentary seats. It even came within 179 votes of gaining another from the DUP, whose support slumped in post-Brexit disarray to a quarter-century low. This completed a hat trick of first-place finishes for Sinn Féin, following its successes in the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2022 and local councils in 2023.

Momentum Towards a Border Poll?

As a result, some are arguing that this vote solidifies the reality of a border poll or referendum on Irish reunification. Sinn Féin's dominance, coupled with the increasing prominence of the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and the cross-community Alliance Party, reflects a shifting demographic and political identity. A new generation, having grown up in the relative peace of the post-Good Friday Agreement era, increasingly identifies as Northern Irish rather than strictly British or Irish. This evolving identity is driving the conversation towards a united Ireland, making a border poll seem less a distant possibility and more an imminent reality.

Sinn Féin's strategy, focusing on improving British-funded services such as the National Health Service, resonates strongly with voters. The surprise recruitment of Pat Cullen, former UK nursing union chief, reflects Sinn Féin’s focus on a conventional left-wing platform delivered increasingly by women. Cullen's victory in Fermanagh-South Tyrone, a constituency historically known for its tight contests, underscores the party's broadening appeal.

Starmer’s Challenge and Opportunity

Keir Starmer's Labour government is at a crossroads. With a mandate to 'turn the page' on previous administrations, Starmer must prioritise Northern Ireland in a way that recent governments have not. His history as a Human Rights Advisor to the Northern Ireland Policing Board provides him with unique insights into the region's complexities. Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris was one of the first international leaders that the new Prime Minister contacted, indicating a readiness to reset Anglo-Irish relations, which have been strained by Brexit and subsequent political turbulence.

The British government under Labour will act as an “honest broker” in relation to any future border poll on a united Ireland, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said. Speaking in the Great Hall of Stormont’s Parliament Buildings on Monday during his first visit to Northern Ireland since his party’s landslide victory, Starmer made no firm policy commitments on the North – just 48 hours after his Northern Secretary Hilary Benn rejected calls for a border poll. However, Starmer pledged to build “respectful” relationships between the London and Dublin governments following the instability of the “last six to eight years”.

To navigate this new landscape, the newly elected Labour government must focus on several key areas of action. Strengthening Anglo-Irish relations is paramount. Renewed diplomatic engagement and a steadfast commitment to the Good Friday Agreement will be essential in maintaining peace and stability. The recent King’s Speech promised to repeal the contentious Legacy Act, with Hilary Benn emphasising Labour's commitment to addressing Northern Ireland's unique challenges and historical issues: "The legacy act does not have the support of any of the political parties and victims' groups in Northern Ireland and we are committed to repeal and replace it.” By prioritising these efforts, the government can lay the groundwork for a cooperative approach to Northern Ireland's future.

Economic stability and trade also demand immediate attention. The effective implementation of the Windsor Framework is critical to ensuring seamless trade between Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK, and the EU. Additionally, targeted investment initiatives in technology, manufacturing, and agriculture can spur economic growth and job creation, benefiting the region and seeking to reassure the North that their future in the UK is one of hope and prosperity, not isolation. Concurrently, increasing funding for public services and education will not only improve living standards but also foster a sense of inclusion, progress, and recognition from Westminster.

The Road Ahead

The 2024 election has underscored a changing Northern Ireland, one that increasingly looks toward a future where the question of Irish unity is front and center. Keir Starmer pledges to work for stability in Northern Ireland and a different way of doing politics. Addressing the media, he described his meetings with Sinn Féin First Minister Michelle O’Neill and DUP Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly as “positive and constructive,” reaffirming his commitment to “resetting relationships” with politicians on both sides of the border. “I have been very clear that my government has a mandate for change, for stability here in Northern Ireland, and a different way of doing politics,” he told reporters.

During a visit to the North last year, Starmer dismissed the possibility of a border poll in the next decade, stating it was “not even on the horizon.” However, pressed on the issue during his recent visit, he softened his tone, acknowledging that “this is provided for by the Good Friday Agreement.” His recommitment to the framework signals a recognition of the shifting dynamics at play.

Ultimately, the decision lies with the people of Northern Ireland and the Republic. As the region stands at a crossroads, the future may hold a more united Ireland or a reimagined status within the UK. The upcoming years will be critical in shaping this narrative, with the actions and decisions made now laying the foundation for the path forward.

The journey ahead will not be easy, but it presents an opportunity for transformation. With new leadership, renewed dialogue, and an engaged electorate, Northern Ireland has the potential to forge a brighter future—one that respects its complex identity while embracing the aspirations of all its citizens. The stakes have never been higher, and the time for action is now.

Shane McCarthy is an Associate in DGA’s UK Public Affairs team