2024 Surgical Robotics Predictions - Expert Opinions

Are you sat there trying to make heads or tails of where 2024 will head in our space?

Well, in all honesty, no-one knows exactly what will happen. But I pulled together a few experts from across the industry to try and get a feeling on what will happen in 2024. If anyone can make some predictions it would be Max Simi CTO of MMI, Lucien Blondel CTO of Quantum Surgical, and Stéphane Lavallée CEO of eCential Robotics. These 3 are experts in various areas of surgical robotics, developing unique and differentiated robotic solutions. So let’s kick off.

Massimiliano Simi

(CTO and co-founder of Medical Microinstruments.)

Easy prediction: 2024 we'll see again Intuitive Surgical unstoppable growth both on DaVinci installation and annual procedures with % similar to 2023; thus it will be a crucial year for all competitors in Minimally Invasive RAS (e.g. Hugo, Senhance, Versius, Hinotori, Revo-i, etc...) to win or fail regulatory approval for new geographical expansion and/or prove a significative market penetration.

Robotics in Ortho and Spine will confirm to be a huge market opportunity for robotics and, as it happens recently in MIS, competition will grow with new but similar product proposals launching into the market.

More interesting news, 2024 will bring advancement and clinical expansion of a number of new robotic products dedicated to currently untapped clinical applications and promising new markets such as Microsurgery and Limphatic Surgery, Eye-Surgery, Brain Surgery together with multiple clinical applications for miniaturized flexible robotic Endoscopes such as Lungs, Kidneys, Colon or other NOTES procedures.

Investment in MedTech will grow in number and founds compared to 2022-2023 in particular for promising applications which will receive interest of big players to further differentiate offering in respect to MIS or Ortho only.

Moved by cost reduction in surgical robotics, new robotic products will grow for hybrid procedures or new concept of robotic assisted surgery as currently proposed by Moon Surgical or Distalmotion.

Asia Market and China in particular we'll confirm impressive acceleration towards high-quality robotic product and massive local adoption. EU will grow slow as has happened in the last years but Italy will be still one of top countries for Surgical Robotics adoption.

From a Tech poin of view it's easy to predict important advancement into Vision and AI based information or controls in 2024 thanks to recent strategic partnerships and massive investment together with potential use of VR in the OR.

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Lucien Blondel

(CTO & Co-Founder of Quantum Surgical, MedTech S.A and host of Minimally Invasive Podcast)

What will happen in the surgical robotics space in 2024?

My first thought is that it’s really a short-term window. Meaning everything that will be announced, unveiled, that will succeed or fail next year is already well advanced behind the scenes today. Because these kinds of technologies take years to develop, to validate, to sell & to grow clinical adoption. Here are 3 predictions.

First, we’ll see?more navigation or robotic systems coming out of China?being cleared, not only for their domestic market through NMPA but a few will also land CE mark or FDA clearance. The speed at which those new companies advance several robotic development projects in parallel is unprecedented. Today these devices are mostly similar to existing systems in Europe or in the US, but I feel R&D teams there have already ramped up to the development of state-of-the-art technologies, and I bet we’ll see less resemblance, more innovation in the following years.

Second, interest of the community will broaden to?new specialties or niche markets?that are not directly competing with the big robotic players. Robotics is spreading way beyond the well-known soft tissue, knee-hip-spine-neuro or cardio-neurovascular spaces; many other applications are rarely under the spotlight, like middle ear surgery or ureteroscopy. I’m curious for instance about shoulder arthroplasty where augmented reality and robotics will grow next year; we may even hear about some early milestones in foot surgery. I’m also keeping an eye on ophthalmology where new players like AcuSurgical will bring a renewed interest to this less investigated field. Finally, endoluminal systems like EndoQuest or different approaches to laparoscopy like Moon Surgical will definitely hit milestones in 2024. There will be other startups coming out of stealth mode with exciting new concepts in the next 12 months but nothing that can be disclosed yet, so stay tuned!

Lastly, I’m afraid we’ll see?a couple more robotic startups shut down. Since companies will probably still have to face challenges in financing & slow market dynamics in the next 6 to 12 months, the most fragile MedTech startups will be put at risk. Creative solutions will have to be imagined and pursued to extend the runway until the sky clears up.

Artificial intelligence will for sure keep making the headlines next year, but how much of an impact on actual procedures and patient outcomes what will be shown will have in the short term, I’m not sure. It takes a while to gather & label meaningful data to train & validate models; we’re still kind of early in the process or integrating AI with robotics. Standalone AI solutions will though keep emerging especially in radiology.

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Stephane Lavallee

(Serial Surgical Robotics Entrepreneur – CEO of eCential Robotics)

In spine & orthopaedics, I believe 2024 will see the beginning of a progressive market shift from proprietary implant company robots towards more agnostic platforms such as eCential Robotics at the forefront, which is expected to be used clinically in the US. Through open platforms, it will broaden the accessibility and integration of robotic technologies, extending substantial benefits not only to the larger institutions but also to smaller and medium-sized implant companies. This will in turn ensure that the advancements in robotic surgery reach a more diverse spectrum of healthcare providers. However, that being said the market of proprietary implant platforms will remain largely dominant in 2024 despite .

I also think we will see an increasing use of 3D x-ray intra-operative imaging coupled with robots, which has always been the essence of eCential Robotics vision and strategy.

Now the question is: will we see disruptive technologies in 2024? Outside of AI which is clearly penetrating fast the planning phase of surgical robotics ? I have some ideas, but not yet for 2024 ;)

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Henry Norton

(Director of RW Search & Host of The Surgibots Podcast)

One area of surgical robotics, which has been heavily reduced in 2023 is investment. Compared to 2022, 2023 has been a bit of a desert in terms of funding, and definitely not the dizzying heights of 2021. That being said. Money is out there. VCs are not poor; they have cash to give. But what has changed is who they give it to and the valuations at which they invest. They are being selective about the projects that they choose to fund because the economy is driving caution. For surgical robotics companies to stand out and also secure investment, it is no longer good enough to just have a good idea. You have to have a great team, have demonstrated that you are capital efficient and you have to have a very backable CEO. In 2024 I think we will see an increase in VC funding, but the projects that get the money will be more of the differentiated technologies, that solve really big healthcare problems and less of the "me too" products.

Feeding into the last paragraph, that will mean that hiring within the industry will go up. However, I believe that companies will be more strategic in the hiring they make, taking from competitors and deep sectorial experience, headhunting specific profiles who have “been there and done it”. This has been a request for a long time now. This seems to be especially priminent in commercialisation and I think this year will be the year of commercial hires being in high demand, mainly in the US. There are a lot of FDA clearances predicted this year, and I have been witnessing a lot of pre-FDA hiring in this area from start-ups, scaleups and multinational corps.

Generally, there seems to be a host of new start-ups entering the race a ton of new projects, spinning out of universities and this is incredibly exciting. Surgical robotics needs new ideas, building upon and improving upon the foundations built by those that have gone before. Unfortunately, I believe that there will be further Bankruptcies and Consolidations where companies who have been struggling to raise investment will unfortunately fall by the wayside. This does leave room for quick M&A, fire sales of technologies which are generally good, but couldn’t get funded.

So, there you go folks, a few opinions from some of the experts. I hope that was useful.

Let me know any of your predictions in the comments and if you agree or disagree?

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