The 2024 Poll Dance: Why does it turn us on so?

As the 2024 presidential race continues to drag on, Kamala still hasn’t made any real public appearances to speak of, and that leaves the media no choice but to cling to polls. For a brief moment, the polls seemed to launch into Kamala mode, and showed her soaring above Trump in the polls.

That was short-lived, and now more realistic polls are being published showing Trump still leading Harris, albeit by a close margin, but nonetheless, leading. Even in states the Democrats once thought were in the bag, but the numbers show, they aren’t [1].

What do the polls really mean? And how reliable are they? What is so amazing is how much stock people seem to take int them. All they are are the results of questions being sent via email, or being asked on the telephone, and the people answering saying whatever the hell they want.

OR ARE THEY?

* Political polls are gathered through a combination of methods, aiming to represent a diverse and accurate sample of the population. Here’s an overview:

1. Sample Selection: Pollsters draw a random sample from a larger population, typically using computer-generated lists of landline and cell phone numbers. Online polls may also be conducted.
2. Weighting: To ensure the sample accurately reflects the population’s demographics, pollsters apply statistical adjustments (weighting) based on factors such as age, race, gender, education, and region.
3. Questionnaire Design: Carefully crafted questionnaires are designed to capture specific information, avoiding bias and encouraging honest responses.
4. Data Collection: Pollsters use various methods to collect data, including:
5. Sample Size: A typical sample size ranges from 1,000 to 1,500 people, sufficient to estimate national opinion with a high level of accuracy.
6. Data Analysis: Collected data is analyzed using statistical methods to produce representative results, which are then reported as polling numbers.

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW

As impressive as all that is, what it doesn’t take account of, is the mindset of the person getting polled at the time of the poll, and later on as the election gets closer. A lot can happen between now and then so to speak, and so what happens when the voter changes his or her mind?

Granted, more polls can be taken, and that would afford the voter to express their mind change, but only if they’re contacted again. Hell, that same person who once claimed they would vote for a certain candidate at the time of poll, may not even bother voting.

So how seriously can or should we take these polls, especially these early ones that seem to fluctuate like the stock market manipulated by Warren Buffet? The truth is, we can’t, and shouldn’t. Think about it. At first it looked like Harris had the White House, and in just a few days, her numbers returned to normal level.

NEED I REMIND YOU

Let’s go back to 1988. Granted, this is just one election, and America has changed dramatically since then, but this does reveal much about polls. Democrat Michael Dukakis was leading Republican George H.W. Bush in the polls. And I mean leading. To the naked eye, it looked as if Dukakis was the shoe in.

I was 18 and was finishing Army Advanced Individual Training [AIT] during the election, so I never got to see campaign advertisements, or watch the news, but from what I overheard when civilian workers and Drill Sergeants talked, there was concern that a Democrat might take the White House.

What actually happened was this. The popular vote was close. Bush got 48,886,097, and Dukakis got 41,809,074. Believe it or not, that’s considered close in a presidential election. Not too close to call, but close nonetheless.

Here’s where it could be considered a landslide. The Electoral Vote, and here’s why. Bush 426, Dukakis 111. That’s what solidified Bush’s victory, and may do the same for Trump if he plays his cards right [2].

THE ELECTORAL WHAT?

* The Electoral College System Explained

The?Electoral College?is?a mechanism established by the United States Constitution to elect the President and Vice President of the United States. It is a compromise between the election of the President by a vote in Congress and election by a popular vote of qualified citizens.

Key Characteristics:

1. 538 Electors:?The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, each representing a state or the District of Columbia.
2. State Allocation:?Each state is allocated electors equal to its number of Representatives in the House of Representatives (based on population) plus its two Senators.
3. Popular Vote:?During presidential elections, voters in each state cast ballots for a candidate, but they are actually voting for a slate of electors pledged to support that candidate.
4. Electoral Vote:?The electors from each state meet separately to cast their electoral votes for President and Vice President. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the President and Vice President.
5. District of Columbia:?The District of Columbia is allocated 3 electors and treated like a state for purposes of the Electoral College under the 23rd Amendment.

Historical Context:

The?Electoral College?was established as a compromise between large and small states, as well as between slave and non-slave states. It aimed to balance the power between these groups and ensure that no single region or group dominated the election process.

Criticisms and Controversies:

1. Lack of Direct Representation:?The Electoral College system does not directly reflect the popular will of the nation, as a candidate can win the presidency without receiving the most votes nationwide.
2. Faithless Electors:?Electors are not bound by law to vote for the candidate they are pledged to support, leading to occasional instances of “faithless electors” casting votes for other candidates.
3. Swing States:?The Electoral College system tends to focus attention on swing states, where the outcome is uncertain, rather than on the national popular vote.

Despite these criticisms, the?Electoral College?remains an integral part of the United States presidential election process, and efforts to reform or abolish it have been ongoing for centuries.

WHY ALL THE HYPE THEN?

One could argue that polls are meant as media tools to sway voters. Here’s what I mean. When the polls seemed to overly favor Harris, the media and the Democrats went into a frenzy of glee.

They were besides themselves and made no bones about bragging about how Kamala was kicking Donald’s ass. This might have made Republicans nervous, and may have swayed a few Independent voters, but at the end of the day, it didn’t really have the effect they hoped for.

Especially after the numbers returned to normal, and they actually showed Trump making gains in states he isn’t supposed to. Now the Democrats are getting nervous, and the hope is Republicans aren’t getting cocky.

Just because Trump is making gains, doesn’t guarantee he’ll win. Plus, he needs to focus on the issues and what he plans to do about them more than making fun of Harris. Period. As we either have known for years, or just learned, polls mean nothing. [TMR]

* Obtained from search engine AI search response

[1] Polls Shifting in the Political Sands

[2] Polls Meant Nothing in 1988

Thomas Ryan is an Independent Columnist based in Florida. He focuses primarily current events and politics, but is versatile and open to new challenges. Comments are always welcome, and Thomas enjoys interacting with readers and followers. Also, sharing these articles is greatly appreciated.