2024 Moldovan European Union membership referendum

A nationwide referendum was held in Moldova on 20 October 2024[1] on whether the country should amend the Constitution of Moldova to include the Moldovan citizens' wish for European Union membership, in order to prevent future governments from shifting the country away from its pro-European trajectory.[2][3] The election occured on the same day as the 2024 Moldovan presidential election.

Incumbent president Maia Sandu campaigned for the "yes" side in the referendum.[4] Turnout was above the 33.33% required for the referendum to be considered valid. Though a majority of Moldovans voted in favour of Moldova's EU aspirations, the referendum was described as closer than expected, with instances of vote bribery emerging in the meantime.[5]

In March 2022, following Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Moldova submitted an application for EU membership.[6] Subsequently, in June of the same year, Moldova was granted the status of a candidate country by the European Council.[7] In December 2023, the European Council announced its decision to open accession negotiations with Moldova.[8] Moldova set a target date of 2030 for EU accession.[9]

President Sandu had announced in 2023 her intention to seek re-election.[2] Additionally, Sandu announced the launch of an online platform aimed at promoting the referendum and advocating for the benefits of EU membership to the country.[2] Observers noted Sandu is gearing up to focus her efforts on EU integration, an area where she and her party PAS have experienced consistent success in order to be re-elected.[10]

In March 2024, Sandu expressed her hope that the referendum will coincide with the presidential elections scheduled for the autumn. Sandu said; "It is important to hold a referendum now because it is a historic occasion, awaited for three decades. The European Union member states are more open than ever, we have the necessary political will for this step, and our citizens want to be part of the EU."[2]

Gagauzia

On 2 February 2014, the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia held two referendums on European integration. In one, 98.4% voted in favour of joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, while in the second 97.2% opposed further integration with the EU. 98.9% also supported the proposition that Gagauzia could declare independence if Moldova unified with Romania.[14] There is concern in Gagauzia that Moldova's integration with the EU could lead to such a unification with EU member Romania, which is unpopular in the autonomous region.[15]

On 21 March 2024, the Parliament of Moldova endorsed a resolution of 54-to-0 to continue the efforts to join the European Union. The declaration asserted, "Only joining Europe can ensure the future of the country as a sovereign, neutral, and fully democratic state". During the vote, all opposition parties in parliament walked out.[11] On 16 May, Parliament approved the holding of the referendum in conjunction with the presidential election on 20 October.[12][13]

Question

The Romanian-language voting ballot for the referendum. There were also ballots in Russian, Gagauz, Bulgarian, in the Romani language and in Ukrainian.

The text of the question put to the vote was:[16]

Sus?ine?i modificarea Constitu?iei ?n vederea ader?rii Republicii Moldova la Uniunea European??

(Do you support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?)

The options of the vote were "yes" (Romanian: da) and "no" (Romanian: nu).[16]

Campaign

At a meeting in Moscow on 21 April 2024, five opposition parties, namely the banned ?or Party, the Revival Party, Chance, Victorie and the Alternative Force for Saving Moldova, announced the formation of an alliance called Victory to oppose EU membership and seek closer relations with Russia. The leader of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gu?ul, also expressed support for the movement, which revolves around ?or Party leader Ilan Shor. Moldovan Infrastructure Minister Andrei Sp?nu called the members of the coalition "traitors" and suggested that it had been formed "right next to the Kremlin".[17]

Moldovan authorities have accused Russian-trained groups of plotting to destabilise the exercise. In September 2024, incidents of vandalism on the offices of the Supreme Court of Justice of Moldova and on the public broadcaster Teleradio-Moldova were attributed to the said groups.[18] In October 2024, authorities announced on social media the discovery of a plot by Ilan Shor involving vote bribery and anti-European Union propaganda, following raids on 26 locations nationwide.[19][20] Russia denied the accusations.[21] Security checks were strengthened at Chi?in?u International Airport following an influx of passengers from Russia carrying large amounts of cash believed to be connected with the plot.[22] On the day of the referendum, the BBC reported that their producer overheard a voter asking an election monitor where she would get paid for her vote, and after being questioned by the network on the issue, she admitted to have been offered 1,000 ? to vote for a candidate and option in the referendum which she did not want to disclose, money which she did not end up receiving.[23][24]

In mid-October, Moldova accused Russia of plotting to bus in voters to polling stations at the Moldovan Embassy in Moscow. In response, the EU imposed sanctions on five people and one entity involved in the influence operation, while the United States accused Russia of spending "millions of dollars" to support its preferred parties and spreading disinformation online. The Russian foreign ministry in turn accused Moldova of printing only 10,000 ballots for 500,000 eligible Moldovans living in Russia.[25]

On 17 October, Moldovan authorities announced the discovery of another plot in which 100 youths were trained in Moscow, Serbia and Bosnia by private military groups to foment civil unrest, including using nonlethal weapons to create "mass disorder" during the election and referendum, adding that four people had been arrested and that some of them received several thousand euros in payments.[26]

Referendum

Approximately 2.8 million ballots were issued for the referendum and the presidential election. For the first time in Moldova, ballots were featured not only in Romanian but also in as many as five minority languages. Thus, 2,092,641 ballots were in Romanian, 631,979 in Russian, 3,400 in Gagauz, 991 in Bulgarian, 870 in the Romani language and 115 in Ukrainian. For voters in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, 90,000 ballots were issued, of which 45,000 were in Romanian and the rest in Russian.[27] Voting was held from 07:00 to 21:00.[28]

For the referendum and the election, 234 polling stations were opened abroad. The first vote in both was cast by Ludmila Vizdoag?, a woman who at the time had lived in South Korea for 19 years. She traveled from Seoul to Tokyo to vote in the polling station for Japan, which was the first to be opened.[27] A polling station was also set up in Varni?a to serve voters from Transnistria.[28]

The referendum was boycotted by several Moldovan political figures, including Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) presidential candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo,[29] Our Party (PN) candidate Renato Usat?i[30] and PSRM leader and former president Igor Dodon.[31]

Registered political parties

The Central Electoral Commission of Moldova has registered the parties that will take part in the referendum campaign. Of the 15 parties officially registered as of 20 September, 13 are in favor of the YES option and two are in favor of the NO option. Also, some parties such as the PSRM or the Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova (PDCM) decided to boycott the referendum.[32]

Analysis

Though opinion polling projected a victory for the "yes" campaign, the result was closer than expected. Analysts said ballots from the largely pro-EU diaspora were counted towards the end, giving the "yes" campaign a last-moment push.[5]

Allegations of vote buying

President Sandu attributed the close result of the referendum to foreign interference and described it as an "unprecedented assault on democracy", adding that her government had evidence that 300,000 votes had been bought. The European Union also said that the two exercises had taken place "under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies".[24] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the referendum result, saying that "In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!", while the United States also noted Russian attempts to "undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration".[35] Meanwhile, the Kremlin expressed doubt on how the 'Yes' vote narrowly won and reiterated its denial of allegations of interference.[36]

Earlier in the year, an investigation conducted by the newspaper Ziarul de Gard? revealed the existence of a criminal enterprise headed by Ilan Shor, which received $15 million from the Russian government (the admissions were recorded on camera); those funds were then distributed to around 130,000 people in order to bribe voters and spread disinformation against the European Union.[19][20] Russia denied the accusations.[21][37]

A BBC producer at a polling station in Transnistria found evidence of vote-buying[38] with a first-hand account of a woman asking an election monitor where she could collect the cash promised to her in exchange for her vote.[24]

Notes

Bloc consisting of the Dignity and Truth Platform, the League of Cities and Towns (LOS) and the Party of Changes